Emerging Patterns of HIV Incidence in Uganda and other East African Countries (International Center for Migration and Health, 1997, 97 p.): AN ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING PATTERNS OF HIV INCIDENCE IN UGANDA AND OTHER EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES: 8.0 Linkage of HIV incidence and prevalence patterns deduced from surveillance and other data sources and relationship to interventions: - Summary findings and recommendations.: 8.2 Summary findings:

Emerging Patterns of HIV Incidence in Uganda and other East African Countries (International Center for Migration and Health, 1997, 97 p.)

AN ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING PATTERNS OF HIV INCIDENCE IN UGANDA AND OTHER EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES

8.0 Linkage of HIV incidence and prevalence patterns deduced from surveillance and other data sources and relationship to interventions: - Summary findings and recommendations.

		8.1 Summary findings in Uganda and Malawi
		8.2 Summary findings: - Population movement and disease dynamics
		8.3 Recommendations for USAID

8.2 Summary findings: - Population movement and disease dynamics

⇒ Population movement patterns have an important impact on the epidemiological dynamics of infectious diseases. However, the role in which migration patterns play in further dissemination of HIV or in the facilitation of the emergence of other new infectious agents is a neglected area of research.

⇒ The increased mobility of populations in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly with respect to urbanisation and rural-urban-rural migratory circulation patterns, will increasingly become an important vector for infectious diseases. A better understanding of the relationship of migration to disease will contribute to improved prevention and control as well as surveillance strategies.

⇒ Preliminary findings from research on migratory patterns as potential geographic vectors for the transmission of HIV suggest that lower urban/ rural prevalence differentials in Malawi as compared to Rwanda may relate to a greater mobility of the Malawi population. In Malawi there is a tendency for greater urban to rural and urban to urban migration patterns than in Rwanda. If such migratory patterns in Malawi are present elsewhere, it may have important implications for HIV spread to rural Africa, with 70% of the continent's population.

⇒ The hypothesis that military activity in south-eastern Uganda in 1979-80 may have contributed to magnification of HIV spread is worthy of further research. It has implications for not only understanding better disease diffusion dynamics, and but in further understanding the broad implications of civil conflict on public health.