 | Cost-Benefit Analysis for Natural Disaster Management - A Case-Study in the Philippines (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, 1998, 100 p.) |
 |
|
Appendix
Appendix 1: Value of Flood Damage Probabilities - Angeles City, Pampanga region
|
1. Tropical Cyclone | | ||||
| |
a. Typhoon | ||||
| | |
Severe Damage |
0.50*0.57*0.82*0.99*0.65 |
= 0.150385 | |
| | |
Light Damage |
0.50*0.57*0.82*0.99*0.30 |
= 0.069408 | |
| |
b. Tropical Cyclone | ||||
| |
|
Severe Damage |
0.50*0.29*0.82*0.99*0.65 |
= 0.076512 | |
| | |
Light Damage |
0.50*0.29*0.82*0.99*0.30 |
= 0.035314 | |
| |
c. Tropical Depression | ||||
| | |
Severe Damage |
0.50*0.14*0.82*0.99*0.65 |
= 0.036936 | |
| | |
Light Damage |
0.50*0.14*0.82*0.99*0.30 |
= 0.017046 | |
|
Total damage to Agriculture |
(0.150385+0.06941+0.076512+0.035314 +0.036936+0.017046)*0.12 |
= 0.04627028 | |||
|
Total Damage to Properties |
(0.150385+0.06941+0.076512+0.035314 +0.036936+0.017046)*0.52 |
= 0.20050457 | |||
|
Total Damage to Infrastructure |
(0.150385+0.06941+0.076512+0.035314 +0.036936+0.017046)*0.36 |
= 0.13881085 | |||
|
II. Rainy Monsoon Season | |||||
|
Severe Damage |
0.50*0.67*0.99*0.65* |
= 0.2155725 | |||
|
Light Damage |
0.50*0.67*0.99*0.30* |
= 0.099495 | |||
|
Total Damage to Agriculture |
0.12(0.215573+0.099495) |
= 0.03780816 | |||
|
Total Damage to Properties |
0.52(0.215573+0.099495) |
= 0.16383536 | |||
|
Total Damage to Infrastructure |
0.36(0.215573<0.099495) |
= 0.11342448 | |||
|
Grand Total of Probability Values: | |||||
| |
Agriculture |
0.0840 | |||
| |
Properties |
0.3643 | |||
| |
Infrastructure |
0.2522 | |||
Appendix 2: Projected Economic Loss, in US$ (Extension of table 4.4.4)
|
20% |
year |
Angeles City | | |
| | |
|
PV |
Cumulative PV |
|
0,833 |
1 |
8 900 847 |
7 417 373 |
|
|
0,694 |
2 |
9 252 430 |
6 425 299 |
13 842 671 |
|
0,579 |
3 |
9 617 901 |
5 565 915 |
19 408 586 |
|
0,482 |
4 |
9 997 808 |
4 821 474 |
24 230 060 |
|
0,402 |
5 |
10 392 721 |
4 176 602 |
28 406 662 |
|
0,335 |
6 |
10 803 234 |
3 617 981 |
32 024 643 |
|
0,279 |
7 |
11 229 962 |
3 134 076 |
35 158 719 |
|
0,233 |
8 |
11 673 545 |
2 714 894 |
37 873 612 |
|
0,194 |
9 |
12 134 650 |
2 351 777 |
40 225 389 |
|
0,162 |
10 |
12 613 969 |
2 037 226 |
42 262 615 |
|
0,135 |
11 |
13 112 221 |
1 764 747 |
44 027 363 |
|
0,112 |
12 |
13 630 153 |
1 528 712 |
45 556 075 |
|
0,093 |
13 |
14 168 544 |
1 324 247 |
46 880 322 |
|
0,078 |
14 |
14 728 202 |
1 147 129 |
48 027451 |
|
0,065 |
15 |
15 309 966 |
993 701 |
49 021 152 |
|
0,054 |
16 |
15 914 710 |
860 793 |
49 881 945 |
|
0,045 |
17 |
16 543 341 |
745 662 |
50 627 607 |
|
0,038 |
18 |
17 196 803 |
645 930 |
51 273 537 |
|
0,031 |
19 |
17 876 076 |
559 537 |
51 833 073 |
|
0,026 |
20 |
18 582 181 |
484 699 |
52 317 772 |
|
0,022 |
21 |
19 316178 |
419 870 |
52 737 642 |
|
0,018 |
22 |
20 079 167 |
363 713 |
53 101 355 |
|
0,015 |
23 |
20 872 294 |
315 066 |
53 416 421 |
|
0,013 |
24 |
21 696 749 |
272 926 |
53 689 347 |
|
0,010 |
25 |
22 553 771 |
236 422 |
53 925 769 |
Appendix 3 Flood Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Measures Rainforestation Farming: 15-year project (Area: 1000 hect.)
Appendix 3a: Rainforestation project: Benefits
|
year |
PEL without intervention |
fraction |
PEL with intervention |
Benefit = PEL-PEL’ |
PV 20% |
Cum. PV |
Discount rate (20%) |
|
1 |
8 900 847 |
0,00 |
8 900 847 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0,83 |
|
2 |
9 252 430 |
(1/15) 0,07 |
8 635 601 |
616 829 |
428 353 |
428 353 |
0,69 |
|
3 |
9 617 901 |
(2/15) 0,13 |
8 335 514 |
1 282 387 |
742 122 |
1 170 475 |
0,58 |
|
4 |
9 997 808 |
0,20 |
7 998 246 |
1 999 562 |
964 295 |
2 134 770 |
0,48 |
|
5 |
10 392 721 |
0,27 |
7 621 329 |
2 771 392 |
1 113 760 |
3 248 530 |
0,40 |
|
6 |
10 803 234 |
0,33 |
7 202 156 |
3 601 078 |
1 205 994 |
4 454 524 |
0,33 |
|
7 |
11 229 962 |
0,40 |
6 737 977 |
4 491 985 |
1 253 630 |
5 708 155 |
0,28 |
|
8 |
11 673 545 |
0,47 |
6 225 891 |
5 447 654 |
1 266 950 |
6 975 105 |
0,23 |
|
9 |
12 134 650 |
0,53 |
5 662 837 |
6 471 813 |
1 254 281 |
8 229 386 |
0,19 |
|
10 |
12 613 969 |
0,60 |
5 045 588 |
7 568 381 |
1 222 336 |
9 451 722 |
0,16 |
|
11 |
13 112 221 |
0,67 |
4 370 740 |
8 741 480 |
1 176 498 |
10 628 220 |
0,13 |
|
12 |
13 630 153 |
0,73 |
3 634 708 |
9 995 446 |
1 121 056 |
11 749 276 |
0,11 |
|
13 |
14 168 544 |
0,80 |
2 833 709 |
11 334 836 |
1 059 398 |
12 808 673 |
0,09 |
|
14 |
14 728 202 |
0,87 |
1 963 760 |
12 764 442 |
994 179 |
13 802 852 |
0,08 |
|
15 |
15 309 966 |
0,93 |
1 020 664 |
14 289 302 |
927 454 |
14 730 306 |
0,06 |
|
16 |
15 914 710 |
1,00 |
0 |
15 914 710 |
860 793 |
15 591 099 |
0,05 |
|
17 |
16 543 341 |
1,00 |
0 |
16 543 341 |
745 662 |
16 336 761 |
0,05 |
|
18 |
17 196 803 |
1,00 |
0 |
17 196 803 |
645 930 |
16 982 691 |
0,04 |
|
19 |
17 876 076 |
1,00 |
0 |
17 876 076 |
559 537 |
17 542 227 |
0,03 |
|
20 |
18 582 181 |
1,00 |
0 |
18 582 181 |
484 699 |
18 026 926 |
0,03 |
|
21 |
19 316 178 |
1,00 |
0 |
19 316 178 |
419 870 |
18 446 796 |
0,02 |
|
22 |
20 079 167 |
1,00 |
0 |
20 079 167 |
363 713 |
18 810 509 |
0,02 |
|
23 |
20 872 294 |
1,00 |
0 |
20 872 294 |
315 066 |
19 125 575 |
0,02 |
|
24 |
21 696 749 |
1,00 |
0 |
21 696 749 |
272 926 |
19 398 500 |
0,01 |
|
25 |
22 553 771 |
1,00 |
0 |
22 553 771 |
236 422 |
19 634 923 |
0,01 |
|
26 |
23 444 645 |
1,00 |
0 |
23 444 645 |
204 801 |
19 839 723 |
0,01 |
|
27 |
24 370 708 |
1,00 |
0 |
24 370 708 |
177 409 |
20 017 132 |
0,01 |
|
28 |
25 333 351 |
1,00 |
0 |
25 333 351 |
153 680 |
20 170 812 |
0,01 |
|
29 |
26 334 019 |
1,00 |
0 |
26 334 019 |
133 125 |
20 303 937 |
0,01 |
|
30 |
27 374 212 |
1,00 |
0 |
27 374 212 |
115 320 |
20 419 257 |
0,00 |
|
Total |
| | |
|
20 419 257 |
| |
Appendix 3b: Rainforestation project: Costs
|
Year |
Cost |
PV (20%) |
Cum PV |
Discount rate 20% |
|
1 |
76923 |
63846 | |
0,83 |
|
1 |
84615 |
70513 |
134359 |
0,83 |
|
2 |
93077 |
64637 |
198 996 |
0,69 |
|
3 |
102 385 |
59250 |
258 246 |
0,58 |
|
4 |
112623 |
54313 |
312559 |
0,48 |
|
5 |
123 885 |
49787 |
362 345 |
0,40 |
|
6 |
136274 |
45638 |
407 983 |
0,33 |
|
7 |
149 901 |
41835 |
449818 |
0,28 |
|
8 |
164891 |
38348 |
488 166 |
0,23 |
|
9 |
181380 |
35153 |
523 319 |
0,19 |
|
10 |
199518 |
32223 |
555 542 |
0,16 |
|
11 |
219470 |
29538 |
585 080 |
0,13 |
|
12 |
241 417 |
27077 |
612 157 |
0,11 |
|
13 |
265 559 |
24820 |
636 977 |
0,09 |
|
14 |
292115 |
22752 |
659 729 |
0,08 |
|
15 |
321 326 |
20856 |
680 585 |
0,06 |
|
... |
0 |
0 |
680 585 |
... |
|
30 |
0 |
0 |
680 585 |
0,00 |
|
Total |
2 765 361 |
680 585 | |
|
Appendix 3c: 15-year rainforestation project: Cost/Benefit ratio
|
Cum PV Cost |
680 585 |
|
Cum PV Benefit |
20 419 257 |
|
C/B |
0.03 |
|
B/C |
30 |
Appendix 4 Flood Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Measures Bamboo Plantation: 4-year project (Area: 1000 hect.)
Appendix 4a: Bamboo plantation project: Benefits
|
Year |
PEL without intervention |
fraction completed |
PEL’ with intervention |
Benefits = PEL-PEL’ |
PV (20%) |
Cum PV |
Discount rate (20%) |
|
1 |
8 900 847 |
0 |
8 900 847 |
0 |
0 | |
0,83 |
|
2 |
9 252 430 |
(1/4) 0,25 |
6 939 323 |
2 313 108 |
1 606 325 |
1 606 325 |
0,69 |
|
3 |
9 617 901 |
(2/4) 0,50 |
4 808 951 |
4 808 951 |
2 782 958 |
4 389 282 |
0,58 |
|
4 |
9 997 809 |
(3/4) 0,75 |
2 499 452 |
7 498 356 |
3 616 106 |
8 005 388 |
0,48 |
|
5 |
10 392 722 |
1 |
0 |
10 392 722 |
4 176 602 |
12 181 990 |
0,40 |
|
6 |
10 803 235 |
1 |
0 |
10 803 235 |
3 617 981 |
15 799 971 |
0,33 |
|
7 |
11 229 962 |
1 |
0 |
11 229 962 |
3 134 076 |
18 934 048 |
0,28 |
|
8 |
11 673 546 |
1 |
0 |
11 673 546 |
2 714 894 |
21 648 941 |
0,23 |
|
9 |
12 134 651 |
1 |
0 |
12 134 651 |
2 351 777 |
24 000 718 |
0,19 |
|
10 |
12 613 970 |
1 |
0 |
12 613 970 |
2 037 227 |
26 037 944 |
0,16 |
|
11 |
13 112 221 |
1 |
0 |
13 112 221 |
1 764 747 |
27 802 692 |
0,13 |
|
12 |
13 630 154 |
1 |
0 |
13 630 154 |
1 528 712 |
29 331 404 |
0,11 |
|
13 |
14 168 545 |
1 |
0 |
14 168 545 |
1 324 247 |
30 655 651 |
0,09 |
|
14 |
14 728 203 |
1 |
0 |
14 728 203 |
1 147 129 |
31 802 781 |
0,08 |
|
15 |
15 309 967 |
1 |
0 |
15 309 967 |
993 701 |
32 796 481 |
0,06 |
|
16 |
15 914 710 |
1 |
0 |
15 914 710 |
860 793 |
33 657 274 |
0,05 |
|
17 |
16 543 341 |
1 |
0 |
16 543 341 |
745 662 |
34 402 936 |
0,05 |
|
18 |
17 196 803 |
1 |
0 |
17 196 803 |
645 930 |
35 048 866 |
0,04 |
|
19 |
17 876 077 |
1 |
0 |
17 876 077 |
559 537 |
35 608 403 |
0,03 |
|
20 |
18 582 182 |
1 |
0 |
18 582 182 |
484 699 |
36 093 101 |
0,03 |
|
21 |
19 316 178 |
1 |
0 |
19 316 178 |
419 870 |
36 512 972 |
0.02 |
|
22 |
20 079 168 |
1 |
0 |
20 079 168 |
363 713 |
36 876 684 |
0,02 |
|
23 |
20 872 295 |
1 |
0 |
20 872 295 |
315 066 |
37 191 750 |
0,02 |
|
24 |
21 696 750 |
1 |
0 |
21 696 750 |
272 926 |
37 464 676 |
0,01 |
|
25 |
22 553 772 |
1 |
0 |
22 553 772 |
236 422 |
37 701 098 |
0,01 |
|
26 |
23 444 646 |
1 |
0 |
23 444 646 |
204 801 |
37 905 899 |
0,01 |
|
27 |
24 370 709 |
1 |
0 |
24 370 709 |
177 409 |
38 083 307 |
0,01 |
|
28 |
25 333 352 |
1 |
0 |
25 333 352 |
153 680 |
38 236 988 |
0,01 |
|
29 |
26 334 020 |
1 |
0 |
26 334 020 |
133 125 |
38 370 113 |
0,01 |
|
30 |
27 374 214 |
1 |
0 |
27 374 214 |
115 320 |
38 485 433 |
0,00 |
|
Total |
| | |
|
38 485 433 |
| |
Appendix 4b: Bamboo plantation project: Costs
|
Year |
Cost |
PV |
Cum PV |
Factor |
|
1 |
961 538 |
801 282 | |
0,83 |
|
1 |
615 384 |
512 820 |
1 314 102 |
0,83 |
|
2 |
676 923 |
470 085 |
1 784 187 |
0,69 |
|
3 |
744 615 |
430 911 |
2 215 099 |
0,58 |
|
4 |
819 076 |
395 002 |
2 610 100 |
0,48 |
|
... |
0 |
0 |
2 610 100 |
... |
|
30 |
0 |
0 |
2 610 100 |
0,00 |
|
TOTAL |
3 817 536 |
2 610 000 |
| |
Appendix 4c: Bamboo plantation project: Cost/Benefit ratio
|
Cum PV Cost |
2 610 100 |
|
Cum PV Benefit |
38 485 433 |
|
C/B |
0.07 |
|
B/C |
14.74 |
Appendix 5 Flood Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Measures Continuous Rehabilitation of Abacan River: 3-year project
Appendix 5a Continuous Rehabilitation of Abacan River: Benefits
|
Year |
PEL without intervention |
Fraction completed |
PEL’ with intervention |
Benefit PEL-PEL’ |
PV (20%) |
Cum PV |
Discount rate (20%) |
|
1 |
8 900 847 |
0,0 |
8900847 |
0 |
0 | |
0,83 |
|
2 |
9 252 430 |
(1/3) 0,3 |
6168287 |
3 084 143 |
2 141 766 |
2 141 766 |
0,69 |
|
3 |
9 617 901 |
(2/3) 0,7 |
3 205 967 |
6 411 934 |
3 710 610 |
5 852 376 |
0,58 |
|
4 |
9 997 808 |
1,0 |
0 |
9 997 808 |
4 821 474 |
10 673 850 |
0,48 |
|
5 |
10 392 721 |
1,0 |
0 |
10 392 721 |
4 176 602 |
14 850 452 |
0,40 |
|
6 |
10 803 234 |
1,0 |
0 |
10 803 234 |
3 617 981 |
18 468 433 |
0,33 |
|
7 |
11 229 962 |
1,0 |
0 |
11 229 962 |
3 134 076 |
21 602 509 |
0,28 |
|
8 |
11 673 545 |
1,0 |
0 |
11 673 545 |
2 714 894 |
24 317 403 |
0,23 |
|
9 |
12 134 650 |
1,0 |
0 |
12 134 650 |
2 351 777 |
26 669 179 |
0,19 |
|
10 |
12 613 969 |
1,0 |
0 |
12 613 969 |
2 037 226 |
28 706 406 |
0,16 |
|
11 |
13 112 221 |
1,0 |
0 |
13 112 221 |
1 764 747 |
30 471 153 |
0,13 |
|
12 |
13 630 153 |
1,0 |
0 |
13 630 153 |
1 528 712 |
31 999 865 |
0,11 |
|
13 |
14 168 544 |
1,0 |
0 |
14 168 544 |
1 324 247 |
33 324 112 |
0,09 |
|
14 |
14 728 202 |
1,0 |
0 |
14 728 202 |
1 147 129 |
34 471 241 |
0,08 |
|
15 |
15 309 966 |
1,0 |
0 |
15 309 966 |
993 701 |
35 464 942 |
0,06 |
|
16 |
15 914 710 |
1,0 |
0 |
15 914 710 |
860 793 |
36 325 735 |
0,05 |
|
17 |
16 543 341 |
1,0 |
0 |
16 543 341 |
745 662 |
37 071 397 |
0,05 |
|
18 |
17 196 803 |
1,0 |
0 |
17 196 803 |
645 930 |
37 717 327 |
0,04 |
|
19 |
17 876 076 |
1,0 |
0 |
17 876 076 |
559 537 |
38 276 864 |
0,03 |
|
20 |
18 582 181 |
1,0 |
0 |
18 582 181 |
484 699 |
38 761 562 |
0,03 |
|
21 |
19 316 178 |
1,0 |
0 |
19 316 178 |
419 870 |
39 181 432 |
0,02 |
|
22 |
20 079 167 |
1,0 |
0 |
20 079 167 |
363 713 |
39 545 145 |
0,02 |
|
23 |
20 872 294 |
1,0 |
0 |
20 872 294 |
315 066 |
39 860 211 |
0,02 |
|
24 |
21 696 749 |
1,0 |
0 |
21 696 749 |
272 926 |
40133 137 |
0,01 |
|
25 |
22 553 771 |
1,0 |
0 |
22 553 771 |
236 422 |
40 369 559 |
0,01 |
|
26 |
23 444 645 |
1,0 |
0 |
23 444 645 |
204 801 |
40 574 359 |
0,01 |
|
27 |
24 370 708 |
1,0 |
0 |
24 370 708 |
177 409 |
40751 768 |
0,01 |
|
28 |
25 333 351 |
1,0 |
0 |
25 333 351 |
153 680 |
40 905 448 |
0,01 |
|
29 |
26 334 019 |
1,0 |
0 |
26 334 019 |
133 125 |
41 038 574 |
0,01 |
|
30 |
27 374 212 |
1,0 |
0 |
27 374 212 |
115 320 |
41 153 893 |
0,00 |
|
Total |
| | |
|
41 153 893 |
| |
Appendix 5b Continuous Rehabilitation of Abacan River: Costs
|
Year |
Cost |
PV (20%) |
Cum PV |
Discount rate 20% |
|
1 |
5 576 923 |
4 647 436 |
4 647 436 |
0,83 |
|
2 |
5 576 923 |
3 872 863 |
8 520 299 |
0,69 |
|
3 |
5 576 923 |
3 227 386 |
11 747 685 |
0,58 |
|
... |
0 |
0 |
11 747 685 |
... |
|
30 |
0 |
0 |
11747685 |
0,0 |
|
Total |
|
11 747 685 |
| |
Appendix 5c Continuous Rehabilitation of Abacan River: Cost/Benefit ratio
|
Cum PV Cost |
11 747 685 |
|
Cum PV Benefit |
41 153 893 |
|
C/B |
0.29 |
|
B/C |
3.50 |
