Foreword

This is a paper of the ILO’s Migration Branch. The ILO’s Migration Branch aims to contribute to (i) the evaluation, formulation and application of international migration policies suited to the economic and social aims of governments, employers’ and workers’ organizations, (ii) the increase of equality of opportunity and treatment of migrants and the protection of their rights and dignity. Its means of action are research, technical advisory services and co-operation, meetings and work concerned with international labour standards. The Branch also collects, analyses and disseminates relevant information and acts as the information source for ILO constituents, ILO units and other interested parties.

In 1994 the ILO, through its Southeast Asia and Pacific Multidisciplinary Team (SEAPAT), undertook case studies on emigration pressures in the Philippines and Indonesia. This report on the Philippines by Ashwani Saith examines the emigration pressures in a country that has undergone a severe and sustained economic crisis during the 1980s. The political turmoil in the Philippines which led to the downfall of President Marcos in 1986 merely precipitated the economic crisis which had been in the making for some years on account of mistaken economic policies that were particularly biased against agriculture. Unemployment statistics did not reflect the severity of the crisis but data on aggregate productivity did. Productivity levels plummeted, worsening the incidence of poverty and crowding the labour market. Filipinos responded by seeking employment opportunities abroad. Contract labour as well as permanent emigration from the Philippines reached unprecedented levels so that by the early 1990’s it was estimated that 16 per cent of households in the Philippines were receiving remittances from abroad.

While questioning the validity of looking at the issue only from the standpoint of supply-side pressures, Saith goes to considerable length in evaluating the underlying demographic and economic conditions in the Philippines which could account for the huge outflows of labour. He argues that the undervaluation of capital and policy-bias against agriculture has reduced considerably the economy’s capacity to absorb the large increments to the workforce. Emigration pressures are likely to persist for some time even with more rapid economic growth expected in the future. As the projections from the Medium-Term Development Plan suggest, the Philippine economy will have to grow at close to 9 per cent to bring down unemployment levels to target levels of 6.6 per cent. Non-economic factors are of course equally important. Given the strong migration propensities that already exist in the Philippines, it is possible that rapid growth alone may not suffice to bring about a migration transition as early as had occurred in neighbouring Asian NIEs.

The relationship between migration and development clearly does not go in only one direction. The paper illustrates how labour migration may, in turn, affect economic growth, income distribution and employment. In the case of the Philippines, Saith observes that gains from migration accrue disproportionately to the richer regions and to the higher income classes. But he can see no reason to justify proposals for a ban on future labour emigration. If growth is to be sustained the country will have to count on the continued large inflows of remittances sent by the migrants. It is also likely that the lowest income groups will be worse off without them.

The study does not yield a quantification of emigration pressures but focused attention on structural factors behind “push factors”. Saith asserts that a relationship exists between emigration pressures and what he calls the structural disarticulation of the rural production and distribution systems. The implications for policy that he draws are understandably addressed to remedying the structural weaknesses of the Philippine economy and not simply to reforming the Government’s policies on labour migration. The study makes it clear that once the migration processes get underway significant changes can take place in the structure of the economy which themselves impose new sets of variables for development and change.