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Aug 9, 2000

U.S. AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (USAID)
BUREAU FOR HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE (BHR)
OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN DISASTER ASSISTANCE (OFDA)

Information Bulletin #7, Fiscal Year (FY) August 9, 2000

Information bulletins on the drought in the Horn of Africa are currently issued on a monthly basis. Information on the situation in Ethiopia and Eritrea is available in USAID’s "Ethiopia/Eritrea - Humanitarian Crisis" fact sheets.

Background

The Horn of Africa is currently facing a humanitarian crisis of serious proportions, primarily due to a severe drought. The worst drought-affected populations are pastoralists in southern and eastern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and northern Kenya. Other countries affected by the drought include Eritrea, Djibouti, Sudan, and Uganda. Many areas have experienced successive drought conditions, conflict, and insecurity, which have exacerbated the current humanitarian situation. As a result, the drought in the Horn of Africa has resulted in increased stress migration to urban or food secure areas, crop failure, the loss or sale of assets such as livestock, increased food prices coupled with decreased profits from assets, and tensions heightened by lack of basic resources.

Numbers Affected

More than 20.6 million people are currently estimated at risk of food insecurity in the Greater Horn of Africa due to the prolonged drought and ongoing conflicts. The UN lists numbers of people affected by the drought at 10.5 million in Ethiopia, 3.3 million in Kenya, 750,000 in Somalia, 335,000 in Eritrea, and 150,000 in Djibouti.

Somalia

More than 750,000 people remain affected by drought conditions in Somalia. According to the UN, the most vulnerable populations in Somalia are the agro-pastoralists who are dependent on rain-fed crop production and those populations already weakened by previous shocks such as displacement and malnutrition. As many as 450,000 additional people are displaced due to fighting among clans, bringing the total affected population in Somalia to 1.2 million.

Despite the late arrival of the main Gu season rains, most predictions indicate that the August harvest may be the second best in the post postwar period. However, total agricultural production will remain up to 38 percent below the prewar average. An increase in available food supply will not be apparent for an additional 4-8 weeks. Water and pasture availability is improving and is expected to be sufficient until the next rainy season begins in October. While livestock are beginning to recover, many agro-pastorialists are expected to remain vulnerable due to three successive years of asset depletion and livelihood stress. Pockets of vulnerability remain throughout the country, especially in Gedo and Lower Juba, where rains have failed. Insecurity continues to hamper relief operations, as evidenced by several attacks on humanitarian relief personnel during June and July in Mogadishu and Merka.

Kenya

The USG estimates that 3.3 million people are currently affected by drought in Kenya, including 2.2 million pastoralists and 1.1 million school children. With the exception of the Eastern and Nyanza Provinces, low precipitation levels during the main rainy season from March through May have resulted in widespread crop failure and livestock losses throughout the country including the Rift Valley and Central Provinces. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Kenya will need to import 1.4 million metric tons (MT) of maize until September 2001. While the private sector may be able to meet the majority of this need, vulnerable populations will continue to require assistance.

The situation for pastoralists continues to deteriorate as the fourth successive year of drought results in falling livestock prices, rising grain prices, collapsed household economies, and exhausted coping mechanisms. In addition, increased population and livestock movements have been reported from Mandera into Ethiopia as water and pasture resources remain limited. Some reports indicate that inter-clan, armed conflicts are beginning to arise over water and pasture resources and may be the cause of a recent migration of 16,000 people from Northern Wajir to Mandera district.

Djibouti

Approximately 150,000 people, 30 percent of Djibouti’s total population, are currently affected by the drought. Livestock remains a priority concern in Djibouti, as it is the primary source of livelihood for the majority of the affected population. Health, water and sanitation are also among the priority needs. According to the UN, some drought-affected populations in Ethiopia have entered Djibouti, although there are no estimates available regarding the size of these populations.

Sudan

Of the estimated population of 2.8 million people who are food insecure in Sudan, approximately 61,700 people are affected by drought conditions. The remainder of this population is displaced or affected by the ongoing civil conflict. The situation was exacerbated by the influx of approximately 94,400 Eritrean refugees into eastern Sudan due to renewed hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea in May 2000. Since the cease-fire agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and the subsequent tripartite agreement between the Government of Eritrea (GSE), the Government of Sudan (GOS) and the UN on repatriation of Eritrean refugees in Sudan, the displaced populations are beginning to return to Eritrea.

Reports indicate rainfall in Sudan was erratic and remained at below average levels in June. The World Food Programme (WFP) reported that it has successfully distributed 80 percent, or 30,000 MT, of its planned assistance for the first half of 2000. Distributions for the second half of the year are expected to increase due to insecurity and predicted poor harvest. The health and nutrition situation for some of the internally displaced populations in these areas remains precarious, in part due to insecurity and lack of access.

Somalia

· To date in FY 2000, USAID/OFDA has committed approximately $8 million in emergency water, health, nutrition, and logistical support programs in response to the current drought and complex emergency in Somalia.

· Emergency Food Assistance: The USG is providing 24,000 MT of emergency food aid valued at $15 million to populations affected by drought and inter-clan fighting. As of July 15, 15,000 MT of USG emergency food aid had arrived in Somalia.

Kenya

· USAID/OFDA has provided approximately $3 million to fund food security, nutrition, water, livestock and agricultural activities in response to the drought in Kenya.

· Catholic Relief Services (CRS) recently received a grant for $539,309 from USAID/OFDA to implement a Cash for Work program for the construction of soil and water conservation structures.

· Emergency Food Assistance: In FY 2000, the USG plans to provide 120,047 MT of emergency food commodities valued at $42 million to drought-affected populations and refugees in Kenya. As of July 15, a total of 49,735 MT of USG emergency food assistance had arrived in Kenya.

Djibouti:

· In response to the drought in Djibouti, USAID/OFDA provided a total of $75,000 in support for a supplementary feeding program and to purchase spare parts for trucks and water tankers to enhance the capacity of Djibouti’s National Office of Assistance to Refugees and Disasters (ONARS) for emergency water supply and food distribution.

· Emergency Food Assistance: The USG has pledged 7,765 MT of emergency food aid valued at $4.8 million to Djibouti in response to the drought.

Sudan:

· The USG plans to provide 90,110 MT of emergency food aid valued at approximately $67.3 million to drought and war affected people in Sudan. The bulk of this assistance is earmarked for victims of the civil conflict. However, an estimated 1,700 MT is intended to benefit drought-affected populations. As of July 15, a total of 23,160 MT of USG emergency food assistance had arrived in Sudan.

USAID/BHR/OFDA Assistance to the Horn*	$31,000,000
USAID/BHR/FFP/ER and USDA humanitarian food assistance to the Horn	$474,767,000
Total USAID and USDA humanitarian assistance to the Horn*	$505,767,000