Agricultural situation

While the situation of African agriculture is quite critical overall, there is nevertheless a certain disparity of situations between countries or groups of countries. Thus, during the decade 1960-70, of 50 countries, 17 increased their per capita food production, with increases ranging from about 5% to 50%. The most striking performances were achieved by Swaziland (over 50% increase), Tanzania (over 40%), Burundi, Libya, Malawi, Sudan, Ivory Coast, Rwanda, Zaire and Cameroon. Over the same decade 20 countries experienced significant declines in production varying from 5% to 35%. The most significant declines were recorded in Senegal (a decline of almost 35%), Chad 25%, Congo 20%, Mali, Nigeria, Algeria (about 15%). Thirteen countries remained relatively unchanged.

Table 5. Africa's Share in World Production of Food and Export Crops (in %)

Sources: Calculated by the author from data in FAO production yearbooks.

During the decade 1970-80, the situation deteriorated sharply. Of 47 countries for which statistics were available, only seven had increases in per capita production ranging from 5% to 30% approximately: Tunisia, Libya, Cameroon, Zambia, Sudan, Burundi, Ivory Coast. Twenty-nine countries had declines of between 5% and 25%.

The worst performances were recorded in the following countries: Mauritania, Ghana, Togo, Morocco, Nigeria, Algeria, Ethiopia, Niger, Angola, Mali, Uganda (see FAO yearbooks).

Table 6 summarizes the evolution of the main sectors of the economy by country for the periods 1960-70 and 1970-76. It shows the annual average growth rates by sector as well as the contribution to GDP. This table confirms the deterioration of the situation during the 1970s compared to the 1960s. Of the 37 countries listed in the table about 20 saw their average annual agricultural production growth rate fall from one period to the other which resulted to some extent in a smaller contribution by the agricultural sector to GDP, whereas the considerable proportion of the population working in the sector remained almost unchanged. This fall led in most countries to a significant gap between production and consumption of agricultural products, as Table 7 shows for cereals. It can be observed that for all the countries mentioned, between 1969-71 and 1978, self sufficiency in cereals was generally not achieved. Thus net imports of cereals for the countries of the region were considerable, as Table 8 shows with data for 1969-71 to 1978.

Table 6. Evolution of the Main Sectors of the Economy by Country (1960-70, 1970-76) Average annual growth rate - Contribution to GDP by sector

Table 7 Africa: Visible Per Capita¹ Production and Consumption of Cereals in Certain Countries

¹Food and non-food uses.

²Invited members of the UN Economic Commission for Africa but not belonging to the regional conference.

Source: United Nations.

For the period under review imports of cereals more than tripled in North Africa. Those of Morocco and Algeria quadrupled. They quadrupled in the Sahel zone. Those of Chad increased almost ninefold. Niger, which exported almost 49,000 tons in 1969-71, imported 64,000 tons in 1978. For the rest of West Africa excluding the Sahel countries, imports tripled.

Table 8 Africa: Net Cereal Imports (000 tons)

¹Invited members of the UN Economic Commission for Africa but not belonging to the regional Conference.

Those of Nigeria increased fivefold, those of Benin fourfold. They also tripled in Central Africa. Angola, which used to export 10% of its production, came to import 21% of its consumption, and Gabonese imports went up fivefold.

Overall, it was eastern and southern Africa that had the lowest imports, the figures having not even doubled. There too, however, some countries faced particularly serious situations. Indeed, Tanzanian imports during the period increased more than eightfold, those of Ethiopia almost threefold. Madagascar imported most: 15 times more cereals in 1978 than in 1969-71. Egypt's imports, in the 'other countries' group, rose more than fourfold.

A number of countries stand out from this general deficit situation, however: these were net exporters or countries whose imports declined sharply. One such was Kenya which remained a net exporter and whose exports increased even further by 1978. In the rest of southern and eastern Africa, imports showed a declining trend in Botswana, Malawi and Uganda. In the other sub-regions, this downward trend can be observed only in the Central African Republic. It remains to be established whether or not these falls were due to inadequate means to finance imports.

As for food imports in the region, what has just been noted with regard to cereals is even more marked for some other basic food products. Thus, it is estimated that by 1985 milk import requirements will increase by 6.4% per annum and those of meat by 9.8%.

Food imports are thus rising year by year. On the basis of an index of 100 for 1969-71, the volume index of food imports for the region was 121 in 1972-74, 147 in 1975-77 and 210 in 1978. In value, between 1969-71 and 1978, imports rose by 389%. It goes without saying that for most countries that have serious external payments difficulties, this situation poses serious problems for food security and for economic development in general. Compared to that, international food aid destined for the region constituted only an addition of extremely limited scope. Thus, for example, the volume of food aid sent to the region increased by 25% per annum between 1974-75 and 1977-78. But that represented only 15% of cereal imports in the period.

Table 9 shows that calorie requirements are decidedly not being met. For the whole of Africa, calorie intake as a percentage of requirements was only 93 in 1969-71 and 94 in 1975-77. Considering the various sub-regions, it is only in North Africa that the norms could be met and this happened after 1972-74.