Structural change

Population

In 1950, one year after the central government of the Republic of China had moved to Taiwan, there were about 8 million people living on the island. By 1990 the population had risen to 20.4 million, with a population density of 566 persons per km², making Taiwan one of the most densely populated areas of the world. The population of Taiwan grew at the rate of 2.37 per cent annually from 1951 through 1990. The growth of Taiwan's population was determined almost totally by the natural increase rate (birth rate - death rate) since there was little international in-migration during the period. Owing to a rising level of education and fewer children per family (a result of population policy), the birth rate has been decreasing since 1960, while improved medical care and higher living standards have led to a fall in the death rate. Because the birth rate has fallen more rapidly than the death rate, the natural rate of increase has steadily declined. Table 6.7 shows that the annual population growth rate decreased from 3.5 per cent in 1960 to 1.2 per cent in 1990. The crude birth rate, 43 per 1,000 in 1950, declined thereafter, with especially sharp decreases recorded between 1960 and 1970 (owing to the government's family planning programme, inaugurated in 1964). The rate decreased further to 27 per 1,000 in 1970 and to 17 per 1,000 in 1990. The crude death rate declined dramatically from 11 per 1,000 in 1950 to 7 per 1,000 in 1960, reached a trough of around 4.8 per 1,000 in 1980, and rose slightly to 5.2 per 1,000 in 1990. The natural rate of increase rose moderately during the period 1950-1960, from 31.8 per 1,000 to 32.6 per 1,000. It then decreased sharply to 22.3 per 1,000 in 1970, owing to a steep decline in the crude birth rate. After 1970 it declined steadily and was 11.4 per 1,000 in 1990 (table 6.7).

For the purposes of structural classification, the population can be divided into three groups: youths (0-14 years old), people of working age (15-64 years old), and the elderly (65 + years old). In 1950 these three groups accounted for 41.3 per cent, 56.2 per cent, and 2.5 per cent, respectively, of the total population. The proportion of the population consisting of youths increased in 1960 owing to the postwar baby boom, but it has decreased in tandem with the decline in fertility since then. By contrast, the proportion of the working-age group decreased between 1950 and 1960, but has risen gradually since 1960. Meanwhile, the proportion of the elderly increased steadily between 1960 and 1990. In 1990 youths accounted for 27.3 per cent of total population, those of working age for 66.6 per cent, and the elderly for 6.1 per cent (table 6.8).

Table 6.7 Growth rate of the population, and births and deaths in Taiwan, 1950-1990

Source: See table 6.1.

Table 6.8 The age distribution of the population, 1950-1990 (%)

Source: See table 6.1.

There have also been changes in the distribution of the regional population. Attracted by the island's largest metropolis, Taipei, people have moved in increasing numbers to the Northern region. Taipei has become Taiwan's first "globalized" city and has provided more job opportunities than any other city on the island. In 1971, population in the Northern region was only a little more than that in the Southern region, with the two regions accounting for 34.9 per cent and 33.0 per cent of Taiwan's total population, respectively. However, since then the Northern region has been absorbing an increasing number of people and the Southern region has been losing population. By 1990, 42.4 per cent of Taiwan's total population was concentrated in the Northern region and 29.6 per cent was in the Southern region. The proportions of the total population in the Central region and in the Eastern region have also declined, with the former decreasing from 27.9 per cent in 1971 to 25.1 per cent in 1990, and the latter from 4.2 per cent to 3.0 per cent, respectively (table 6.9).

Employment

Total employment in Taiwan increased from 2.9 million in 1952 to 8.3 million in 1990. It grew at an annual rate of 2.8 per cent, slightly faster than the population growth rate of 2.5 per cent, during the period 1953-1990. Among industries, employment in secondary industry grew the fastest, increasing 5.2 per cent annually during the same period. The main source of growth in industrial employment was growth in manufacturing jobs, which increased 5.4 per cent annually. Tertiary industry employment grew 4.2 per cent annually between 1953 and 1990, while employment in primary industry shrank 1.1 per cent yearly (table 6.10).

Table 6.9 The population distribution of Taiwan by region, 1971 and 1990 (%)

Source: See table 6.1.

Table 6.10 Employment by industry, 1952 and 1990

Source: Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), Taiwan Statistical Data
Book, 1991.

a. Primary industry includes agriculture, forestry, fishery, and poultry and lifestock raising.

b. Secondary industry includes mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water, and construction.

c. Tertiary industry includes such services as commerce, transport, and storage, communications, finance, insurance, real estate, and business services, and community, social, and personal services.

Changes in the economic structure during the past four decades have led to a sharp decrease in agriculture's share of total employment, to only 13 per cent in 1990. In the meantime, secondary industry's share rose to 41 per cent, and that of tertiary industry to 46 per cent (table 6.11). The increase in secondary industry's share of employment has been due to growth in manufacturing employment. Manufacturing is the most important subsector of secondary industry, and its contribution to employment has been very significant. In the 1960s, the government succeeded in creating additional employment opportunities by promoting labour-intensive export-oriented industries. As a result, about 43 per cent of incremental employment was absorbed by manufacturing during the period 1953-1990. Between 1973 and 1983, more than 51 per cent of incremental employment was absorbed by manufacturing, a situation similar to that of the industrializing nations of Europe at the turn of the century. After reaching a peak, manufacturing's contribution to employment slowed (tables 6.11 and 6.12), both because of the transformation to a service economy and because of the transformation from labour-intensive to capital- and technology-intensive manufacturing. Meanwhile, the rapid industrialization stimulated the growth of the service sector, which is labour intensive. This created not only jobs for new workers but also re-employment opportunities for displaced workers and those leaving agriculture. As the fastest-growing sector of the economy, tertiary industry is expected to increase its share of total employment still further in years to come.

Table 6.11 Shares of employment by industry, 1952-1990 (%)

Source: See table 6.10.
a. Manufacturing's share of total employment in parentheses.

Table 6.12 Incremental employment absorbed by manufacturing, 1953-1990

Source: See table 6.10.