Concluding remarks

Despite the data used in the regression analysis and other limitations underlying the model, a number of interesting results concerning global influences on recent urban trends are noteworthy.

First of all, results show that the distribution of direct foreign investment across regions contributes to the tendency of urbanization to be concentrated in one or two regions. On the other hand, exports, the other global factor tested here, are shown to be contributing to a more balanced pattern.

Local factors tested in the analysis were not shown to be contributing to urban primacy. The share of local investment and government spending in a region increases the region's share of total urban population.

The results also show that foreign investment tends to reinforce a region's exports share, especially in the area of non-traditional export commodities. However, there is some evidence that suggests that foreign and local investment may be crowding-out each other. This indirect effect may weaken the final effect of these factors on urbanization.

A region's share of total government spending tends to improve the level of urban development. In turn, the distribution of government spending is also highly sensitive to urban population shares, but unfortunately is insensitive to social needs (represented in the model by the regional share of total infant deaths).

On the whole, the above results suggest that global factors do not necessarily lead to urban primacy. The recent trend where the dominance of Metro Manila relative to other regions seems to be declining may in fact be influenced by some global factors, especially exports. But, despite the declining trend, the momentum generated by the size of the National Capital Region continues to influence the distribution of both global and local factors. Furthermore, it is unfortunate that government spending has served to reinforce this phenomenon. But, as shown above, a reallocation of public resources could potentially effect balanced regional development.