International passengers

Rapid changes are sweeping over international scheduled airlines, prompted by deregulation which, since 1978, has allowed United States mega-carriers -United, Delta, Continental, Northwest, and US Air - to spread their hub-and-spoke network activities throughout the world and to force realignments within the industry (i.e. they carry passengers from one foreign country to another via their home base). In Pacific Asia, the United States mega-carriers are fighting to obtain more of the burgeoning traffic stemming from high growth rates in order to benefit from the marketing advantages of hub-and-spoke systems - lower information costs, high quality of service, and more rewards from frequent-flyer programmes for the individual passenger (Tretheway, 1990). Regional airlines are responding to the challenge through privatization (e.g. Japan Airlines, 1987), simple carrier alliances (e.g. Singapore International Airlines with Delta), new airlines (e.g. Air Nippon Airlines, Asiana Airlines, and Eva Airlines), and strong carrier alliances (i.e. by taking a minor equity in a foreign carrier). Growing airport and airway congestion has sparked off a round of new airport proposals in Hong Kong, Osaka, and Seoul, as well as agreements to start or expand flights to airports outside the bounds of world cities (e.g. Fukuoka, Nagoya, and Sapporo in Japan, Macau, and Shenzhen in China).

Table 3.20 Changes in international air mail tonnage within Pacific Asia, 1983 and m

	1983		1990		Change 1983-1990
City	Tonnes	Per cent	Tonnes	Per cent	Tonnes	Per cent
Jakarta	79	0.4	390	1.0	+311	+0.6
Singapore	1,870	8.8	1,876	4.7	+6	-4.1
Kuala Lumpur	305	1.4	557	1.4	+252
Bangkok	1,460	6.8	3,476	8.7	+2,016	+1.9
Manila	1,505	7.0	2,038	5.1	+533	-1.9
South-East Asia	5,219	24.4	8,337	20.9	+3,118	-3.5
Taipei	1,989	9.3	3,973	10.0	+1,984	+0.7
Hong Kong	3,177	14.9	10,117	25.3	+6,940	+10.4
Shanghai	4	0	14	0.0	+ 10
Beijing	5	0	62	0.2	+57	+0.2
Osaka	1,086	5.1	1,367	3.4	+281	- 1.7
Tokyo	7,356	34.4	9,282	23.2	+1,926	- 11.2
Seoul	2,529	11.9	6,787	17.0	+4,258	+5.1
East Asia	16,146	75.6	31,602	79.1	+15,456	+3.5
Pacific Asia	21,365	100.0	39,939	100.0	+18,574

Sources: ICAO (1984,1991).

Table 3.21 Travelling times by air between Pacific Asia's world cities

	Timea
City	JAK	SIN	KUL	BKK	MNL	TPE	HKG	SHA	BJS	OSA	TKO	SEL
JAK	-	1.35	2.00	3.15	4.00	5.20	4.25	5.50	5.10	7.45	7.10	6.55
SIN	1.35	-	0.50	2.15	3.15	4.20	3.45	4.10	5.00	6.05	6.50	6.10
KUL	2.00	0.50	-	1.50	3.45	4.20	3.35	4.40	5.55	6.55	6.40	6.45
BKK	3.15	2.15	1.50	-	3.05	3.40	2.40	3.40	3.45	5.15	6.20	5.15
MNL	4.00	3.15	3.45	3.05	-	1.50	1.50	2.55	3.35	3.30	3.50	3.40
TPE	5.20	4.20	4.20	3.40	1.50	-	1.35	2.40	3.15	2.30	3.10	3.40
HKG	4.25	3.45	3.35	2.40	1.50	1.35	-	1.05	1.50	3.05	4.00	3.15
SHA	5.50	4.10	4.40	3.40	2.55	2.40	1.05	-	1.45	3.10	3.45	4.20
BJS	5.10	5.00	5.55	3.45	3.35	3.15	1.50	1.45	-	4.10	5.00	5.05
OSA	745	6.05	6.55	5.15	3.30	2.30	3.05	3.10	4.10	-	1.00	1.30
TKO	7.10	6.50	6.40	6.20	3.50	3.10	4.00	3.45	5.00	1.00	-	2.15
SEL	6.55	6.10	6.45	5.15	3.40	3.40	3.15	4.20	5.05	1.30	2.15	-

Source: ABC (1991).
Abbreviations: JAK - Jakarta; SIN - Singapore; KUL - Kuala Lumpur; BKK - Bangkok;
MNL - Manila; TPE - Taipei; HKG - Hong Kong; SHA - Shanghai; BJS - Beijing; OSA -
Osaka; TKO - Tokyo; and SEL - Seoul.
a. Only flying times are shown (those in italics refer to services via Hong Kong). The length of time in transfer points depends on the date and time of flying.

Raw distances used in discussing air freight need to be replaced by travelling time between major world city airports (table 3.21). The longest travelling time is 7 hours and 45 minutes between Jakarta and Osaka and the shortest is 50 minutes between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Again, Hong Kong is the pivot of the network as all Pacific Asia's world cities can be connected to it in the shortest possible time. Attention here, however, is focused on changes within Pacific Asia's international passenger market.

The same source of information is used for analysing international passenger traffic as for air freight and air mail - international scheduled airlines for individual world-city pairs (i.e. ICAO, 1984,1991). A major drawback to interpretation, however, is the absence of a breakdown of passengers into two distinctly different types of consumers: business (i.e. must-go travellers), who are highly sensitive to frequency of service, and leisure travellers, who are highly sensitive to price.

International air passengers

In 1983, over 12.4 million international air passengers travelled between Pacific Asia's world cities (table 3.22). The "top five" accounted for almost 70 per cent. Hong Kong (20 per cent) was the major generator, followed by Singapore (15 per cent), Tokyo (14 per cent), Taipei (11 per cent), and Bangkok (10 per cent). Other prominent generators were Manila (8 per cent) and Seoul (7 per cent), and Osaka and Kuala Lumpur (both 6 per cent). The contributions of both Beijing and Shanghai were negligible. As the respective inbound and outbound flows are more or less evenly balanced there is little point in discussing them separately.

Table 3.22 Origin and destination of air passengers within Pacific Asia, 1983

	Origin		Destination
City	Passengers	Per cent	Passengers	Per cent
Jakarta	334,942	2.7	344,952	2.8
Singapore	1,877,879	15.1	1,921,102	15.4
Kuala Lumpur	780,690	6.3	750,252	6.0
Bangkok	1,193,758	9.6	1,137,386	9.1
Manila	927,577	7.5	880,347	7.1
South-East Asia	5,114,846	41.2	5,034,039	40 4
Taipei	1,356,207	10.9	1,321,699	10.6
Hong Kong	2,462,072	19.8	2,515,632	20.2
Shanghai	23,785	0.2	14,498	0.1
Beijing	29,423	0.2	55,422	0.5
Osaka	798,724	6.4	833,398	6.7
Tokyo	1,784,776	14.3	1,823,196	14.7
Seoul	874,152	7.0	846,101	6.8
East Asia	7,329,139	58.8	7,409,946	59.6
Pacific Asia	12,443,985	100.0	12,443,985	100.0

Source: ICAO (1984).

A graphical analysis of major links highlights the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore connection and the importance of the Tokyo-Hong Kong-Bangkok axis, with dominant flows exceeding 500,000 (fig. 3.11). Links between 250,000 and 500,000 brought Seoul, Osaka, Taipei, Manila, and Jakarta into the network. On this score both Beijing and Shanghai were "stranded." A discussion of "sources" and "sinks," however, has to be muted because, as noted, the margins were quite small owing to inbound and outbound movements being more or less evenly balanced. For the record, the major "sources" were Bangkok, Manila, Taipei, Kuala Lumpur, Seoul, and, to a lesser extent, Shanghai. The major "sinks" were Hong Kong, Singapore, Tokyo, Osaka, and Beijing.

Fig. 3.11 Air passenger movements between world cities in Pacific Asia, 1983 (Source: ICAO, 1984)

In 1990, almost 23 million international air passengers moved between Pacific Asia's world cities - an annual increase of 12 per cent since 1983. The "top five" generated over 70 per cent - a marginal increase since 1983 (table 3.23). Hong Kong (19 per cent) maintained its pivotal position, with Tokyo (17 per cent) experiencing the greatest growth, moving ahead of Singapore (15 per cent) into second place, and Bangkok (11 per cent) taking over fourth place from Taipei (10 per cent). The other major change was the rise of Seoul (9 per cent) and, to a lesser extent, Jakarta (3 per cent), but Manila and Kuala Lumpur (both 6 per cent) lost ground. Both Beijing's and Shanghai's contribution was negligible.

Table 3.23 Origin and destination of air passengers within Pacific Asia, 1990

	Origin		Destination
City	Passengers	Per cent	Passengers	Per cent
Jakarta	741,013	3.2	777,367	3.4
Singapore	3,336,695	14.5	3,444,805	15.0
Kuala Lumpur	1,323,578	5.8	1,196,873	5.2
Bangkok	2,470,926	10.8	2,571,777	11.2
Manila	1,299,088	5.6	1,206,042	5.2
South-East Asia	9,171,300	39.9	9,196,864	40.0
Taipei	2,271,606	9.9	2,186,133	9.5
Hong Kong	4,289,112	18.7	4,174,254	18.2
Shanghai	44,183	0.2	45,100	0.2
Beijing	57,771	0.2	49,130	0.2
Osaka	1,279,580	5.6	1,316,688	5.7
Tokyo	3,801,039	16.5	3,744,377	16.3
Seoul	2,073,373	9.0	2,275,418	9.9
East Asia	13,816,664	60.1	13,791,100	60.0
Pacific Asia	22,987,964	100.0	22,987,964	100.0

Source: ICAO (1991).

An analysis of dominant links in 1990 highlighted the intensification and deepening of international interactions between world cities in Pacific Asia (fig. 3.12). The 1983 Tokyo-Hong Kong-Bangkok axis, with unidirectional flows in excess of 500,000 passengers per annum, has expanded to Seoul-Tokyo-Hong Kong-Bangkok-Singapore-Jakarta. Besides "Main Street," there is also a Hong Kong-Taipei-Tokyo link and an offshoot from Singapore to incorporate Kuala Lumpur. The Tokyo-Seoul link exceeded 1 million passengers. Minor links carrying between 250,000 and 500,000 passengers brought both Osaka and Manila into the network but not Beijing and Shanghai, which remained isolated. Differences between inbound and outbound flows revealed Hong Kong was the "dominant source," with an excess of 115,000 passengers - a reflection of the high proportion of non-local passengers stemming from its position as the dominant trans-Pacific gateway. Other centres featuring as "sources" included Kuala Lumpur, Manila, Taipei, and Tokyo. Seoul, with a deficit of 202,000, was the dominant "sink," followed by Singapore and Bangkok, and, to a lesser extent, Osaka and Jakarta. Beijing and Shanghai were almost evenly balanced.

Fig. 3.12 Air passenger movements between world cities in Pacific Asia, 1990 (Source: ICAO, 1991)

Table 3.24 Changes in numbers of air passengers within Pacific Asia, 1983 and 1990

	1983		1990		Change 1983-1990
City	Passengers	Per cent	Passengers	Per cent	Passengers	Per cent
Jakarta	334,942	2.7	741,013	3.2	+406,071	+0.5
Singapore	1,877,879	15.1	3,336,695	14.5	+1,458,816	-0.6
Kuala Lumpur	780,690	6.3	1,323,578.	5.8	+542,888	- 0.5
Bangkok	1,193,758	9.6	2,470,926	10.8	+1,277,168	+1.2
Manila	927,577	7.5	1,299,088	5.6	+371,511	-1.9
South-East Asia	5,114,846	41.2	9,171,300	39.9	+4,056,454	- 1.3
Taipei	1,356,207	10.9	2,271,606	9.9	+915,399	-1.0
Hong Kong	2,462,072	19.8	4,289,112	18.7	+1,827,040	- 1.1
Shanghai	23,785	0.2	44,183	0.2	+20,398	-
Beijing	29,423	0.2	57,771	0.2	+28,348	-
Osaka	798,724	6.4	1,279,580	5.6	+480,856	-0.8
Tokyo	1,784,776	14.3	3,801,039	16.5	+2,016,263	+2.2
Seoul	874,152	7.0	2,073,373	9.0	+1,199,221	+2.0
East Asia	7,329,139	58.8	13,816,664	60.1	+6,487,525	+1.3
Pacific Asia	12,443,985	100.0	22,987,964	100.0	+10,543,979

Source: ICAO (1984, 1991).

As passenger flows will be a critical determinant of the relative status of Pacific Asia's world cities, the analysis is extended to highlight differences between 1983 and 1990 (table 3.24). This underlines the faster growth of world cities in East Asia. The only centres to experience a net gain in South-East Asia were Bangkok and, to a lesser extent, Jakarta. In East Asia the growth was narrowly focused on Tokyo and Seoul as both Hong Kong and Taipei experienced slower growth rates. Care has to be exercised in interpreting these changes because, as noted, it is not possible to disentangle business and tourist traffic. In turn, this makes it difficult to assess the impact of the replacement of air passenger transport by telecommunications.