Is the situation critical?

The discussion above portrays a rather discouraging picture of the middle mountains in Nepal. But is the situation critical or alarming enough to require immediate attention and changes? A valid response to this question can be made only on the basis of selected indicators that relate not only to the environment and physical resource base of the area but also to the socio-economic conditions and quality of life of mountain people. For this purpose, table 4.14 lists different variables under the categories of (a) environmental degradation, (b) wealth, (c) well-being, (d) economic and technological possibilities (substitutability), (e) spatial and market linkages, and (f) capacity to respond to environmental changes (and new opportunities). These are consistent with the general approach of this volume and the definitions of criticality set forth in chapter 1. The trends in different variables and their desirability are indicated in the table, which permits a series of inferences:

· all the variables characterizing environmental degradation (quantity/ quality of water, soil fertility, biomass productivity, etc.) show declines and this is an undesirable trend.

· the variables under wealth show a mixed picture in which overall GNP is increasing but per capita GNP is declining. Indebtedness is on the increase but savings and investment in progressive pockets are on the rise. This has equity implications, too.

· Largely owing to the "health revolution" and improved accessibility, human well-being, as judged by longevity, a reduced mortality rate, food availability, and education, is improving. Economic and technological possibilities are limited but in some pockets they have succeeded. Technologies conducive to regeneration and environmental stability are lacking.

· Spatial and market linkages are increasing, and access to mainstream markets has helped some activities. But unequal terms of trade for mountains leads to the accentuation of resource extraction.

· The capacity to respond to changes or to generate and use new opportunities is lacking. The development of human skills is limited and the institutional frameworks to strengthen these skills are scarce. This is also responsible for the limited substitutability of technology.

Table 4.14 Details indicating the criticality of the situation in the middle mountain areas of Nepal

W = widespread and general situation; P = in limited pockets or groups of population

Overall, one may say that human well-being is increasing but largely because of external subsidization in cash or kind. Both the unfavourable terms of trade and the limited capacity to respond to change render mountain areas in Nepal unable to use market and technology for their betterment. Finally, the biophysical resource base, which is degrading rapidly, tends to discount all the positive things, including the rapid transformation of limited pockets. Viewed this way, the situation in the middle mountains tends to be critical. Possible approaches to respond to the situation require:

1. a greater focus on controlling or regulating human driving forces, and
2. designing and implementing interventions with greater sensitivity to mountain specificities (Banskota and Jodha 1992a,b; Jodha 1992).