1.2 The current situation in water resources

1.2.1 Freshwater is a finite and precious resource that is essential for sustaining life, as are the natural systems that provide and maintain its supply. As demand increases, this resource is becoming increasingly scarce. Global freshwater consumption rose sixfold between 1900 and 2000 - more than twice the rate of population growth - and the rate of increase of consumption is still accelerating. Demand for water resources is increasing both because of population growth (particularly in developing countries) and because of rising demand per person due to such causes as irrigation development, industrialisation, and increasing use by individuals as incomes rise. A potential crisis is looming where available resources can no longer meet needs.

1.2.2 Table 1 presents recent data on annual withdrawals within continents, and across sectors. The table illustrates the continental-scale variations that exist. The uneven distribution of the world's population exacerbates variations in the amount of water potentially available per person. In Asia, for example, water availability per person is half the global average. Although annual withdrawals currently represent an apparently small proportion of the available freshwater resources - some 9% in 2000 - this is deceptive. In addition, the annual withdrawals are also forecast to increase globally to 12% by 2025.

1.2.3 There is no set maximum limit on withdrawal, but at a national level a figure of 10% of the available freshwater resources is conventionally used to define a threshold of water stress. This is because a significant proportion of water resources occurs as seasonal floods that pass rapidly down rivers to the sea or are remote from human habitation. Table 2 illustrates the future predicted decline in availability of freshwater by region.

Table 1: Estimated annual water resources and withdrawals, by region, 1995

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, Stockholm Environment Institute 1997.

Table 2: Predicted decline in per capita availability of water resources, by region, 1995-2025

Source: Comprehensive Assessment of the Freshwater Resources of the World, Stockholm Environment Institute 1997.

1.2.4 The Stockholm Environment Institute has estimated that, allowing for predicted population growth and assuming moderate projections of development and climate change, the proportion of the world's population living in countries of significant water stress¹ will increase from approximately 34% in 1995 to 63% in 2025. Those living in poorer countries in Asia and Africa, with low and unreliable rainfall and high levels of utilisation of the total water resource, will be most at risk of water stress impacting severely on their lives and livelihoods.

¹ Significant water stress defined as withdrawals greater than 20% of the available freshwater resources in a country.

1.2.5 Freshwater is also a mobile resource. It is present as atmospheric moisture, rainfall, soil moisture, surface water (including rivers and lakes) and groundwater, and there are complex relationships between these different parts of the hydrological cycle. All of these forms of water vary over place and time, both seasonally and from year to year. Their distribution is affected by climate and landscape. Water use, and with it the value that people give that water, also varies with place and time according to the people's capacity to modify or capture the resource. The sustainability of the quality and quantity of water resources depends on the balance of agricultural, industrial and domestic uses against the prevailing hydrological conditions. At the same time, people are increasingly recognising that the environment is both the fundamental provider of freshwater and a legitimate user of that water, and that the maintenance of ecosystems demands a range of seasonal water requirements.

1.2.6 Users of water need dependable sources. Throughout the world reservoirs are used both to mitigate floods and to store surface water from periods of excess to periods of deficit (either within years or between years), and thereby to provide a reliable supply. As withdrawal amounts increase, particularly in places with sporadic rainfall, so the need for storage increases. However, while dams undoubtedly have benefits, some of which accrue to poor people, they also have complex social and environmental consequences for poor people. This subject was explored by the World Commission on Dams (1997-2000). The commission comprised twelve individuals of international standing, each representing different interests in the dams debate. They achieved a remarkable consensus, reflected in the World Commission on Dams report (November 2000) which sets out a very constructive protocol for future planning of dams.

1.2.7 Desalination has often been promoted as the supply side solution to the anticipated levels of rising demand. It is true that the cost of desalination has fallen dramatically in recent years as a result of technological advances, reducing energy prices and better management. However, although it now seems likely that desalination may well play a significant role in providing water to coastal cities and industries, it is unlikely that this technology could be used more generally to provide water to inland communities.

1.2.8 National boundaries and river catchments are not coincident, and many countries rely to some degree on river flows from countries upstream. Indeed, approximately 15% of all countries receive more than half their available water from upstream countries. Consequently, access to water often depends not only on national policies, but also on international relations and agreements with other nation states.

1.2.9 The absence of effective planning and management of these scarce water resources is a major impediment to the elimination of poverty. Poorer states, poorer regions of countries, and poorer communities and households have the greatest difficulty in establishing their claims to water. Few countries have specifically designed their water policies with an orientation towards poor communities. Where legislation exists, it is not always aligned with stated water policy and the institutions required for its implementation are frequently ineffective. On the other hand, where customary institutions and traditional water laws do exist, they are frequently overlooked or ignored.

1.2.10 In some countries, those responsible for managing and allocating water are vulnerable to conscious or unconscious bias towards the rich and powerful. Political patronage and corruption frequently override considerations of efficiency or equity. In the increasingly tense competition over the use of water resources, the poor have the least influence.