Conducting Environmental Impact Assessment in Developing Countries (UNU, 1999, 375 pages): 5. EIA tools: 5.1 Impact prediction: 5.1.9 Difficulties in prediction

Conducting Environmental Impact Assessment in Developing Countries (UNU, 1999, 375 pages)

5. EIA tools

5.1 Impact prediction

		(introduction...)
		5.1.1 Application of methods to different levels of prediction
		5.1.2 Informal modelling
		5.1.3 Physical models
		5.1.4 Mathematical models
		5.1.5 Modelling procedure
		5.1.6 Sensitivity analysis
		5.1.7 Probabilistic modelling
		5.1.8 Points to be considered when selecting a prediction model
		5.1.9 Difficulties in prediction
		5.1.10 Auditing of EIAs
		5.1.11 Precision in prediction and decision resolution

5.1.9 Difficulties in prediction

When a system is complex and continuous changes are occurring, prediction becomes difficult. Time and money are often the main constraints. Sometimes, predictions which provide information for decision makers may be complicated and not clear cut. There are often a range of methods that may be used to predict a particular change and these may vary depending on the complexity of the change.