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close this bookHydropolitics along the Jordan River. Scarce Water and Its Impact on the Arab-Israeli Conflict (UNU, 1995, 272 pages)
close this folder4. Interdisciplinary analysis and the Jordan River watershed
close this folder4.2. Preliminary watershed analysis
View the document4.2.1 Survey of hydropolitical positions
View the document4.2.2 Goal statement and planning horizon
View the document4.2.3 Future water supply and demand, "water stress" index

4.2.3 Future water supply and demand, "water stress" index

In order to estimate the water needs over the 30-year time horizon for each entity dependent on the watershed - Israel, Jordan, the West Bank, and Gaza - I have developed a computer program that will determine future water supply and demand per capita for any number of possible scenarios. Initial conditions, population growth rates, climatic conditions, and technical developments can all be varied to simulate different technical and policy options. All of the screens for the model are collected in appendix V, with initial conditions and explicit and implicit assumptions listed.

The results of several runs, representing different immigration scenarios, are listed in table 4.1. As can be seen, each of the entities is already well past the "water barrier" of manageable capability, defined by Falkenmark (1989a) as 500 m3 per person. If no changes are made, the annual per capita availability will drop in 30 years from 391 to 247 m3 per person in Israel; from 242 to 89 m3 per person in Jordan; from 122 to 46 m3 per person in the West Bank; and from 100 to 38 m3 per person in Gaza - even without any immigration.

Table 4.1 Projected population and water demand, for different immigration scenarios, of entities dependent on the Jordan River watershed

Entity Scenarioa Year Population
(millions)
Water needs (MCM/yr)b Low/high water deficit (MCM/yr)b
Low demand High demand
Israel 1 million immigrants 1991 4.80 1,800 1,800 200/200
2000 6.44 2,000 2,000 400/400
2020 8.85 2,200 2,200 600/600
2 million immigrants 1991 4.80 1,800 1,800 200/200
2000 7.46 2,100 2,100 500/500
2020 10.01 2,400 2,400 800/800
Jordan 300,000 refugees 1991 3.60 870 980 0/110
2000 4.91 960 1,100 90/230
2020 9.76 1,300 1,600 430/730
West Bank No immigration 1991 0.90 115 180 0/65
2000 1.21 120 210 5/95
2020 2.37 140 330 25/215
600,000 immigrants 1991 0.90 115 180 0/65
2000 1.61 125 250 10/135
2020 3.67 170 460 55/345
Gaza   1991 0.60 95 140 35/80
2000 0.81 100 160 40/100
2020 1.58 120 240 60/180

a. Assumes 1 million immigrants to Israel by 1993 (as in fact, was the case), 2 million by 2000; Palestinian immigration is assumed to be between 1995 and 2005, all to the West Bank.
b. Projections assume constant demand for agriculture, growth to come through technology; low demand assumes urban use grows at current per capita usage; high demand allows 100 m3 per capita for urban use.
c. Projected deficit equals current annual natural potential minus projected demand.