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close this bookHydropolitics along the Jordan River. Scarce Water and Its Impact on the Arab-Israeli Conflict (UNU, 1995, 272 pages)
close this folderAppendices
View the documentAppendix I: Maps
View the documentAppendix II: Zionist boundaries, 1919
View the documentAppendix III: Hydronationalism
View the documentAppendix IV: PRINCE political accounting system
View the documentAppendix V: JRDNRVR. BAS projection model
View the documentAppendix VI: Med-Dead/Red-Dead desalination project

Appendix V: JRDNRVR. BAS projection model

The model used to project water supply and demand into the future is a fairly straightforward extrapolation model. Initial conditions for population, population growth, water supply, and current use are used to forecast future water demand as a function of population. Initially, future water supply is assumed to remain constant.

To allow for some flexibility for management purposes, the model is designed to be interactive, allowing a user to input a variety of technical and policy assumptions. The model takes these user-input variables and calculates population, water supply, and per capita water availability for Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, and Jordan, over a 30-year time horizon. The model calculates a low-demand forecast, assuming that future urban consumption (personal and industrial) will grow in proportion to current use, and a high-demand scenario, allowing 100 m3 per person per year for urban use. Implicit in these calculations is the assumption that growth in agriculture will come through greater water efficiency and technology, and not through increased allocations to that sector.

Explicit assumptions include the accuracy of the initial conditions, growth rates, and water supply figures, and that these values will remain constant over time.

The input screens are as follows:

JRDNRVR.BAS
A COMPUTER PROJECTION MODEL
(c) Aaron Wolf

The Mideast is the site of both severe water shortage and of intense. often violent, political conflict. Because water scarcity and political tensions have been shown to he inextricably linked in that arid and volatile region, it is crucial to understand the political consequences of hydrological actions as well as the hydrological ramifications of political decision-making.

JRDNRVR.BAS generates future water supply and demand figures for Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, and Jordan, based on current patterns. You, the "hydro - strategic" planner, can make a series of technical and political assumptions to make the model fit a variety of future scenarios.

The two types of state variables are for water supply and populations. The base assumptions for the model are as follows:

Israel Current population - 4,600,000
Pop. growth rate - 1.6%
Annual water budget - 1800 MCM/yr.
West Bank: Current population - 900.000
Pop. growth rate 3.4 %
Annual water budget - 110 MCWyr.
Gaza Current population - 600,000
Pop. growth rate - 3.4%
Annual water budget - 130 MCM/yr.
Water potential - 70 MCM/yr.
Jordan Current population - 3,300,000
Pop. growth rate - 3.5%
Annual Water budget - 870 MCM/yr.
Water potential - 870 MCM/yr.

The model assumes that these variables are constant into the future but you can change any of the values by answering the questions which follow.

User's notes:

  • Percentages should be in decimal form (eg 10% = 0.1)
  • Current values will be given in parentheses for reference,
  • use y and n for yes and no,
  • the time-frame considered is 1996-2025

Would you like to skip the user's section and run the base model (y,n)?

I. POPULATION

Israel anticipates between one and two million Soviet Immigrants over the next decade. How many would you like to assume actually arrive (0-2,000.000)?

There are 2.2 million Palestinians registered world-wide as refugees. In the event of an autonomous Palestine on the West Bank, many of these refugees would likely immigrate to the area.

Would you like to assume that such an entity is created (y,n)?

Would you like to change the growth assumptions, due for example to increased religious fundamentalism or, alternately, to better family planning (y,n)?

II. WATER SUPPLY

Water supply is a combination of groundwater, surface water, and wastewater-reclamation. These values are considered constant unless changed as follows:

  • Groundwater and surface water can be assumed to fluctuate around a normal (Gaussian) distribution based on actual rainfall data. (Only Israeli and West Bank supplies, both dependent on surface water, will fluctuate. )

Would you like to assume such a distribution (y,n)?

  • Reclamation and water-saving technology such as drip-irrigation has been effectively adding to water supply at an approximate rate of 1%/yr. over the last decades. The model only incorporates advances made to date.

Would you like to assume that such advances are made into the future (y,n)?

  • Large-scale technical options which exist for the near future include water imports and desalination projects. Israel, for example, is negotiating to import 40 MCM/yr. by the bargeload from Turkey.

Two options are open to you:

  1. To leave the model as is, without incorporating these projects.
  2. To incorporate such projects by country, size and year.

NOTE: The model will delineate the 'water barrier' level to aid in planning. According to Falkenmark ( 1989) this is the amount of water per capita which a population in this region needs to fulfill its minimum hydrologic requirements. One strategy might be to run the model as is once to note the year in which 'water stress occurs, then run it again 'building' water projects as needed to alleviate the problems.

Please indicate the option desired (1-2)?

Would you like such a project built in Israel (y,n)?
In what year would you like the project completed?
How large should the project be (MCM/yr.)?
Would you like another such project in Israel (y,n)?

Would you like such a project built on the West Bank (y,n)?
In what year would you like the project completed?
How large should the project be (MCM/yr.)?
Would you like another such project on the West Bank (y,n)?

Would you like such a project built in Gaza (y,n)?
In what year should you like the project completed?
How large should the project be (MCM;yr.)?
Would you like another such project in Gaza (y,n)?

Would you like such a project built in Jordan (y,n)?
In what year would you like the project completed?
How large should the project be (MCM/yr.)?
Would you like another such project in Jordan (y,n)?

RUN PROGRAM