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close this bookLivestock to 2020 - The Next Food Revolution. 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the Environment. Discussion Paper 28. (IFPRI, 1999, 79 p.)
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentForeword
View the documentAcknowledgments
View the document1. The Livestock Revolution
View the document2. Recent Transformation of Livestock Food Demand
View the document3. Accompanying Transformation of Livestock Supply
View the document4. Projections of Future Demand and Supply to 2020
View the document5. Implications of the Livestock Revolution for World Trade and Food Prices
View the document6. Nutrition, Food Security, and Poverty Alleviation
View the document7. Environmental Sustainability
View the document8. Public Health
View the document9. Technology Needs and Prospects
View the document10. Taking Stock and Moving Forward
View the documentAppendix: Regional Classification of Countries Used in this Paper
View the documentReferences
View the documentRecent Food, Agriculture, and the Environment Discussion Papers

3. Accompanying Transformation of Livestock Supply

Production of animal food products grew most rapidly in the same regions where consumption did. Total meat production in developing countries grew at 5.4 percent per year between 1982 and 1994, almost five times the developed-country rate (Table 9). The highest production growth rates for meat occurred in Asia, especially in China where total meat production increased by at least 6.3 percent and possibly as much as 8.4 percent annually (Table 10). 6

6 See discussion of China data in Chapter 2. The more likely figure of 6.3 percent per year is still the highest in the world. Meat production grew at a modest 2.9 percent in Latin America and just 2.1 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. In China, Other East Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa total meat production grew less than total meat consumption, though for developing countries as a whole production grew at the same rate as consumption.

Per capita meat and milk production rose between 1983 and 1993 in all regions except Sub-Saharan Africa and WANA (where milk production fell marginally), indicating that domestic supply kept up with population growth in most areas (Table 10). In 1993 both Other East Asia and WANA had substantial discrepancies between per capita meat consumption and production, indicating that those regions imported large amounts of meat to keep up with growing demand (Tables 2 and 10). Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa had substantially higher per capita milk consumption than production in 1993.

Table 9 - Production trends of various livestock products, 1982-94


Annual growth of total production

Total production

Per capita production

Region/product

1982-94

1983

1993

1983

1993


(percent)

(million metric tons)

(kilograms)

Developed world


Beef

0.1 *

36

35

27

26


Pork

0.7 *

35

37

29

29


Poultry

3.2

19

27

16

21


Meat

1.1

90

100

76

78


Milk

-0.4 *

365

348

305

272

Developing world


Beef

3.1

16

22

5

5


Pork

6.1

21

39

6

9


Poultry

7.8

9

21

3

5


Meat

5.4

51

88

15

21


Milk

3.7

113

164

32

39

Sources:

Annual growth of total production 1982-94 is the growth rate from regressions fitted to FAO annual data (FAO 1998). Total and per capita production 1983 and 1993 are calculated from FAO 1998.

Notes:

Beef includes meat from cattle and buffalo. Poultry includes all fowl listed in FAO 1998. Meat includes beef, pork, mutton, goat, and poultry carcass weights. Milk is cow and buffalo milk and milk products in liquid milk equivalents. Metric tons and kilograms are three-year moving averages centered on the two years shown.

* Not significantly different from zero at the 10 percent level.

Table 10 - Trends in the production of meat and milk, by region, 1982-94


Annual growth of total meat production

Per capita meat production

Per capita milk production

Region

1982-94

1983

1993

1983

1993


(percent)

(kilograms)

(kilograms)

China

8.4

16

33

3

6

Other East Asia

5.0

16

24

15

30

India

3.7

4

5

51

66

Other South Asia

4.8

6

8

50

62

Southeast Asia

5.7

11

16

2

3

Latin America

2.9

43

48

94

101

WANA

3.9

14

16

58

57

Sub-Saharan Africa

2.1

10

9

19

19

Developing world

5.4

15

21

32

39

Developed world

1.1

76

78

305

272

World

2.9

30

34

102

93

Sources:

Annual growth of total meat production 1982-94 is the growth rate from regressions fitted to FAO annual data (FAO 1998). Per capita meat and milk production for 1983 and 1993 are calculated from FAO 1998.

Notes:

Meat includes beef, pork, mutton, goat, and poultry carcass weights. Milk is cow and buffalo milk and milk products in liquid milk equivalents. Kilograms are three-year moving averages centered on the two years shown. WANA is West Asia and North Africa.

Poultry had the fastest total production growth rate in both developing and developed countries between 1982 and 1994 (Table 9). Production grew slowly in developed countries for all other livestock products, with total and per capita output of beef and milk falling. In developing countries total meat and milk production grew rapidly, especially pork and poultry. Even the growth of beef production, which was near zero in developed countries, amounted to a robust 3.1 percent per year in developing countries. Per capita production of pork, poultry, and milk increased for developing countries as a group.

The large discrepancies between developing-and developed-country total production growth rates are shifting world animal production, with all its benefits and costs, from developed to developing countries (Table 11). In one decade the developing-country share of world meat and milk production rose from 36 to 47 percent and from 24 to 32 percent, respectively. China’s share of global meat supply rose from 12 to 20 percent. Milk production is mainly concentrated in the developed world, but India increased its share of world production from 8 to 12 percent during the period. At the rate that production has been shifting to developing countries, it is likely that more than 50 percent of the world’s meat is now produced in the developing world and that the same will be true for milk by 2020.

Table 11 - Shares of total world production of meat and milk, by region, 1983 and 1993


Beef

Pork

Poultry

Meat

Milk

Region

1983

1993

1983

1993

1983

1993

1983

1993

1983

1993


(percent)

China

1

4

25

38

5

12

12

20

1

1

Other East Asia

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

India

4

5

1

1

0

1

2

2

8

12

Other South Asia

2

2

0

0

1

1

1

1

2

4

Southeast Asia

2

2

3

4

5

6

3

4

0

0

Latin America

19

20

6

4

13

15

12

12

8

9

WANA

2

2

0

0

5

5

3

3

3

4

Sub-Saharan Africa

5

4

0

1

2

2

3

3

2

2

Developing world

34

41

37

51

32

44

36

47

24

32

Developed world

66

59

63

49

68

56

64

53

76

68


(million metric tons)

World

48.8

55.0

55.7

75.5

28.8

47.3

141.4

188.0

477.4

511.8

Source:

FAO 1998.

Notes:

Meat includes beef, pork, mutton, goat, and poultry carcass weights. Milk is cow and buffalo milk and milk products in liquid milk equivalents. Values are calculated from three-year moving averages centered on the two years shown. WANA is West Asia and North Africa.

Sources of Growth in the Output of Livestock Food Products

The geographic distribution of the world’s livestock animals reflects different consumption preferences and trends (Table 12). Cattle and buffalo are found where beef and milk are consumed in large amounts, primarily the developed world and Latin America, which are high beef-consuming regions, and South Asia, which is a high milk-consuming region. Growth in numbers of cattle and buffalo occurred throughout the developing world, with most developing regions increasing their share.

Pigs are concentrated in the key pork-consuming countries of East and Southeast Asia. China’s share of the world’s pigs rose from 38 to 44 percent between 1983 and 1993, and the majority of the world’s pigs reside now in Asia. Numbers of chicken and other fowl grew rapidly between 1983 and 1993, especially in Asia where 40 percent of all chickens and other fowl were located in 1993. China had the largest increase in numbers of chicken and other fowl as well. Sheep and goats were most highly represented in WANA and Sub-Saharan Africa. The regional distribution of sheep and goat numbers shifted little from 1983 to 1993.

In developing countries rapidly increasing meat and milk production coincided with rapidly increasing numbers of animals. The developing-country share of the world’s stock of animals rose to two-thirds of all pigs, fowl, sheep, and goats, and three-quarters of all cattle and buffalo in 1993. By contrast, numbers of cattle and pigs fell between 1983 and 1993 in the developed countries, despite increased beef and pork output. In developed countries growth in numbers of animals was important only for poultry output. Increased output in developed countries was made possible primarily by increased productivity per animal, defined as greater amounts of meat or milk output per animal and per unit of inputs.

Comparing the location of the world’s livestock in Table 12 to output shares in Table 11 provides an indication of the relative productivity levels of the regions. Although three-quarters of the world’s cattle and two-thirds of the world’s pigs, poultry, sheep, and goats lived in developing countries in 1993, those countries produced less than half of the world’s meat and a third of the world’s milk.

Table 12 - Distribution of the world’s livestock animals, 1983 and 1993


Cattle and buffalo

Pigs

Chickens/fowl

Sheep and goats

Region

1983

1993

1983

1993

1983

1993

1983

1993


(percent)

China

5

7

38

44

15

24

11

12

Other East Asia

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

India

19

20

1

2

3

2

9

10

Other South Asia

5

5

0

0

2

2

6

7

Southeast Asia

3

4

5

5

7

11

1

2

Latin America

22

23

10

9

12

12

9

8

WANA

3

2

0

0

6

7

14

13

Sub-Saharan Africa

11

12

1

2

5

5

15

16

Developing world

69

74

57

64

52

65

65

69

Developed world

31

26

43

36

48

35

35

31


(million head)

World

1,378

1,457

776

878

8,680

12,936

1,607

1,722

Source:

FAO 1998.

Note:

WANA is West Asia and North Africa.

Table 13 compares growth rates of animals slaughtered or milked with growth rates in meat and milk output, giving an indication of the extent to which productivity and increased numbers of animals contributed to output growth. Countries in the relatively land-abundant Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa relied mostly on growth in numbers of animals for their increased livestock production. In Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of cattle that were slaughtered or milked grew at rates nearly equal to, or above, the growth rate of beef and milk output, indicating that number of animals was more important than productivity in providing the additional meat. Pig numbers grew at about the same rate as pork output in both regions, indicating little productivity growth. The number of chickens grew at about the same rate as poultry output in Africa. In Latin America the number of chickens grew more slowly than poultry output, suggesting the existence of productivity growth in poultry output.

In Asia, where land is scarce, growth in numbers of animals made up a smaller proportion of output growth for beef and pork. Productivity growth was relatively more important. Not including China, where reported productivity growth was even greater, cattle numbers grew less than 2 percent per year between 1982 and 1994, while both milk and beef output grew by more than 3 percent. Also in Asia without China, pig numbers grew at about four-fifths the rate of pork output, indicating a small amount of productivity growth. Less productivity growth occurred in poultry production, as chicken numbers grew at approximately the same rate as output.

Productivity is much higher in developed countries than that typically found in developing countries. Table 14 presents the number of kilograms of meat or milk produced per animal. Productivity by this yardstick was clearly higher in developed countries, especially for beef and milk. Pork and poultry productivity levels showed greater similarity across regions.

Certain developing regions appear to be catching up with developed-country rates for per animal productivity. Productivity growth rates in some developing countries exceed those in developed countries for some commodities (Table 14). Beef productivity throughout Asia has been growing at rates higher than the 0.9 percent growth rate in the developed world. Milk productivity growth rates in Asia, with the exception of China, also exceeded those in developed countries. Beef and milk productivity in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa fell increasingly behind the developed countries. Pork productivity growth rates exceeded developed-country levels in Asia. Poultry productivity growth was on average more rapid in developed countries than in developing countries excluding China.

Table 13 - Growth rates of livestock output and number of animals slaughtered or milked, 1982-94


Cattle

Milk

Pigs

Chickens

Region

Output

Slaughtered

Output

Milked

Output

Slaughtered

Output

Slaughtered


(percent growth per year)

China

20.0

15.5

10.0

11.6

7.2

5.8

13.1

10.3

Other East Asia

3.3

2.0*

8.1

3.0

5.6

3.5

8.9

8.4

India

3.6

2.2

6.4

1.6

2.8

2.8

11.9

11.9

Other South Asia

2.4

0.7

2.9

1.7

4.9

3.8

8.2

6.3

Southeast Asia

4.2

3.4

4.4

2.1

5.7

4.8

7.1

7.5

Asia, excluding China

3.4

1.8

4.2

1.8

5.7

4.6

7.5

7.4

Latin America

2.1

1.8

2.5

1.8

0.1*

-0.4*

6.6

5.5

WANA

3.0

0.3*

2.7

1.2

5.9

5.8

5.9

5.6

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.3

0.8

2.9

2.3

7.8

7.7

4.0

4.1

Developing world

3.0

2.5

3.8

2.0

6.1

4.8

7.7

6.9

Developing world, excluding China

2.1

1.6

3.6

1.8

3.3

2.9

6.6

6.2

Developed world

0.1

-0.8

-0.4

-1.7

0.7

0.3

2.7

1.9

World

1.1

0.6

0.5

0.3

3.1

2.5

4.7

4.0

Source:

Estimated from FAO 1998 data.

Notes:

As discussed later in the report, the official China production figures for the mid-1990s are currently under revision and may be reduced. China has been excluded from the Asia figures to avoid any bias this may introduce.

* Not significantly different from zero at the 10 percent level.

Table 14 - Productivity by region and animal type, 1992-94, and productivity growth rate, 1982-94


Beef from cattle

Milk

Pork

Poultry

Region

Productivity

Growth rate

Productivity

Growth rate

Productivity

Growth rate

Productivity

Growth rate


(kilograms/head)

(percent/year)

(kilograms/head)

(percent/year)

(kilograms/head)

(percent/year)

(kilograms/head)

(percent/year)

China

149

4.5

1,530

-1.6

76

1.4

1.3

2.8

Other East Asia

207

1.3 †

1,983

5.1

72

2.1

1.1

0.5 *†

India

103

1.4

973

4.8

35

...

0.9

0.0

Other South Asia

111

1.7

538

1.2 †

37

1.1

1.0

1.9

Southeast Asia

170

0.9 †

628

2.4

58

0.8

1.1

-0.3

Asia, developing countries, excluding China

147

1.5

672

2.3

61

1.1

1.1

0.0 *

Latin America

194

0.2

1,137

0.7

71

0.5 †

1.4

1.1 †

WANA

135

2.7

1,236

1.5 †

69

0.1 *†

1.1

0.2

Sub-Saharan Africa

132

-0.5

340

0.6

45

0.1

0.9

-0.1*

Developing world

162

0.5

896

1.9

72

1.2

1.2

0.8 †

Developing world,









excluding China

164

0.5

879

1.8

63

0.5 †

1.2

0.5

Developed world

242

0.9

3,739

1.3

82

0.4

1.4

0.8

World

204

0.5

2,073

0.2

76

0.6

1.3

0.7

Source:

FAO (1998) figures on total food commodity production per region and item are divided by the corresponding number of animals slaughtered (or milked) from FAO 1998. Growth rates of productivity are from regressions fitted to annual estimates of productivity obtained through this means. WANA is West Asia and North Africa.

* Not significantly different from zero at the 10 percent level.

† Not significantly different from developed world at the 10 percent level.

Sources of Productivity Growth

Productivity growth in developed regions mainly occurs through further technological progress. Farmers can raise many more animals per unit of land by using capital-intensive mechanization that reduces labor requirements, by increasing per animal feed use and feed quality, and by investing in improved animal genetics and health. Nearly 37 percent of the world’s meat supply comes from industrialized livestock production (FAO 1995b). In recent years, industrial livestock production grew globally at twice the rate (4.3 percent) of more traditional, mixed-farming systems (2.2 percent), and more than six times the rate of grazing system (0.7 percent) (Sere and Steinfeld 1996).

Industrial livestock production is knowledge-and management-intensive, especially when delivering products for an increasingly quality-conscious urban population. Industrial livestock production maximizes the use of scarce resources, notably land, labor, and feed, and it involves the development of genotypes, application of biotechnology, general improvement in animal husbandry and veterinary care, and advances in the backward and forward linkages of livestock output (such as meat marketing systems, feed mills). Production costs of monogastrics, such as pigs and poultry, tend to fall faster than those for ruminants in land-scarce situations because monogastrics require less space and are more efficient at converting feed concentrates to meat.

Livestock production in developing countries relies much more on traditional operations. A quarter of the world’s land is used for grazing, which sustains about 10 percent of world meat production (FAO 1995b). Grazing systems typically increase production by increasing the number of heads and the land area used. As land becomes scarce, grazing systems lead to either land degradation and economic decline or mixed or industrial livestock production systems.

Mixed livestock and crop production is the most common form of livestock operation in developing countries, providing more than 50 percent of the meat produced in the world (FAO 1995b). The crop component of the farm provides residues for roughage, while the livestock component provides animal traction, fertilizer, animal fibers, a form of savings or collateral, and a role in social functions. Livestock kept in mixed systems are primarily large and small ruminants because they are efficient at converting pastures, crop residues, and other rough - ages into meat. Such fibrous materials and grasses have little or no alternative use. Large ruminants can also provide farm power.

Currently an estimated 250 million working animals provide draft power for mixed farms that cover about 28 percent of the world’s arable land. Approximately 52 percent of available cropland in developing countries is farmed using animal draft power. The use of animal draft power increased in the 1970s and 1980s in those parts of West Africa where the technology was relatively new, disease was being controlled, and introduction of new crops such as cotton and maize required added farm power (Pingali, Bigot, and Binswanger 1987). Eastern and Southern Africa and South Asia in particular have longer traditions in the use of draft animals and are likely to continue to use them for some time to come.

Mechanization is rapidly occurring in other areas, such as East and Southeast Asia (Steinfeld 1998). In these areas mixed farming is evolving as the food value of animals increases and the value of their other uses declines. The diffusion of machinery, fertilizer, synthetic fibers, and financial services reduces the value of livestock’s other roles. Mechanization improves the productivity of animal food production because animals no longer need to be kept into adulthood for draft power, enabling more rapid slaughter rates. Mechanization also makes possible a shift from large and small ruminants to animals such as pigs and chickens that require less time and space for production.

In past decades livestock development in Asia suffered from an extreme shortage of land and quality feed but enjoyed a relative abundance of labor and water. Capital, first in short supply, became less of a limiting factor as rapid industrial development took place and incomes increased. Progress in development led to the adoption of a number of technologies that dealt first with land scarcity and then replaced labor with capital.

The first set of innovations introduced into Asian mixed-farming systems included basic animal health care, such as control of infectious diseases and parasites. Next came the provision of additional feed, first from crop byproducts, but then increasingly from cereals and other concentrates. In Indonesia and elsewhere, cut and carry systems, essentially a combination of forage cultivation and stall feeding, developed for milk production. Breeding continued to be based on local selection for preferred traits; crossbreeding was practiced to some extent.

As demand for livestock foods expanded rapidly, mixed-farming systems could not keep up. Feed requirements could no longer be met from domestic supplies of cereals and other concentrates. Asia began to import large amounts of feedgrains, mainly from the developed countries. At this point the industrial production of pork, poultry, and eggs that emerged was more efficient at using imported feeds. Industrial systems make use of imported livestock genetic material and sophisticated feeding practices, such as phased feeding, the use of feed additives, and, at an even more advanced stage, synthetic amino-acids. As of this writing, in early 1999, these systems appear to have been disproportionately disadvantaged by the Asian economic crisis, which raised the cost of imported feeds and depressed urban demand.

WANA exhibits different trends. Land is not a limiting factor per se but agricultural potential is, given the scarcity of water. Traditional pastoralism and, to a limited extent, mixed fanning continue to exist, but oil revenues and the resulting economic expansion since 1973 have introduced imported industrial production units, for poultry and dairy in particular. These units have state-of the-art technology but require many imported inputs and the domestic production of others (for example, forage production for dairy cows). For the most part they cannot compete with world markets but are maintained through protection as a matter of political choice.

Because of the emergence of these subsidized industrial production systems, as well as other major distortions in the food market, little technological change has occurred in the grazing and small mixed-farming sectors in WANA. Feed lots for small ruminants have developed to some extent, mainly in response to the market requirements of the region. These requirements include the seasonal demand for whole animals during religious holidays. In more ecologically favorable environments, notably the Nile valley in Egypt, competitive dairy systems have emerged that use a mixture of domestic and imported feed resources and intermediate labor-intensive technology.

The relative abundance of land and extreme scarcity of capital resulted in little productivity increase per animal in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past two decades. Without significant per capita income growth the region lacked the stimuli and the means for adopting meat production technology outside the poultry sector in large coastal markets. Dumping of livestock products from developed countries during the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s also discouraged production innovation, as did overvalued exchange rates that favored imports.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s livestock sector continues to be largely made up of ruminants located in tsetse-free areas and fed locally available feed. By and large health care is rudimentary and only simple feed supplements, such as minerals, are provided. Close to urban centers, and where agro - ecological conditions permit, semi-intensive and intensive dairying has developed using cultivated fodder and agro-industrial by-products. Poultry production has begun to industrialize. Apart from low income and a shortage of quality feed, livestock production technology in Africa continues to be severely constrained by disease, especially trypanosomiasis, which is spread by the tsetse fly (Alexandratos 1995). Cattle production is difficult in areas infested with the tsetse fly. Other diseases must be controlled as well before widespread intensification of pork and poultry production can occur.

Latin America is characterized by an abundance of land. The region experienced considerable livestock development prior to the 1960s. Urbanization had already advanced by that point, unlike in the rest of the developing world. Income stagnation in the 1970s and early 1980s and low world market prices for meat slowed productivity growth and technology adoption. It was generally cheaper to expand livestock production into new areas than invest in new technology. Pastures continue to be unimproved, except for areas close to consumer centers, and the technology used in extensive ranching only involves such basic measures as fencing, disease prevention and treatment, and some genetic development.

Recently, intensive poultry production and, to some extent, dairying have developed in Latin America. These livestock systems took advantage of the traditionally high urbanization rate and a resurgence of economic growth in the 1990s. Intensive in nature, these systems use many of the same basic technologies found in developed countries but use them at lower levels of intensification.

Feed Use

Recent rapid increases in meat production caused global use of cereal as feed to rise at 0.7 percent annually between 1982 and 1994. This growth rate reflects negligible growth in use of cereal as feed in the developed countries and a more than 4 percent per year growth rate in the developing countries (Table 15). Despite the higher growth rate, developing countries still use less than half as much cereal for feed as do developed countries. In 1990-92 concentrated cereal feed provided between 59 and 80 percent of the nutrition provided to animals in the developed world. By contrast, cereals accounted for only 45 percent of total concentrate feed in Southeast Asia, the developing region with the most intensive use of feedgrains.

As output of livestock products grows in developing regions, animal production methods and feeding patterns are shifting rapidly. Grazing systems are rapidly diminishing in importance throughout the world. Land available for grazing is caught in a squeeze. Urbanization and crop production are encroaching on traditional grazing areas. Preservation efforts are limiting expansion of grazing operations into virgin areas.

Mixed-farming systems also face limits. Innovations in crop production have reduced crop residues and nongrain biomass available for feeding. Crop research has largely ignored the feed value of crop residues. Unimproved varieties in low external input systems typically produce three to four times as much nongrain biomass as grain, whereas modern hybrids often produce an equal share or less nongrain biomass as grain.

Table 15 - Trends in the use of cereal as feed, 1982-94


Annual growth rates



Total cereal production,

Total cereal use as feed,

Total cereal use as feed

Region

1982-94

1982-94

1983

1993


(percent)

(million metric tons)

China

2.1

5.8

40 a

84

Other East Asia

-2.3

6.8

3

7

India

3.0

3.5

2

3

Other South Asia

2.0

0.9

1

1

Southeast Asia

2.4

7.2

6

12

Latin America

0.9

2.6

40

55

WANA

3.7

1.9

24

29

Sub-Saharan Africa

4.0

5.2

2

3

Developing world

2.3

4.2

128

194

Developed world

0.2*

-0.5*

465

442

World

1.2

0.7

592

636

Sources:

Production and use growth rates for 1982-94 are from regressions fitted to FAO annual data (FAO 1998). Total use for 1983 and 1993 is calculated from FAO 1998.

Notes:

Cereals include wheat, maize, rice, barley, sorghum, millet, rye, and oats. Metric tons are three-year moving averages centered on the two years shown. WANA is West Asia and North Africa.

a Simpson, Cheng, and Miyazaki (1994) report 40 million metric tons from U.S. Department of Agriculture data. That figure is used here because it is more consistent with the feed quantities and feed/meat conversion ratios in Rosegrant et al. 1997. FAO (1998) reports 49 million metric tons.

* Not significantly different from zero at the 10 percent level.

Household food waste, such as tuber skins, stems, and leaf tops, has traditionally been another important feed resource, for backyard monogastric production in particular. But small-scale backyard operations are disappearing because of low returns to labor and increased competition from large-scale producers. Although each backyard operation is small, at the aggregate level such systems act as major transformers of waste into meat and milk. Because large operations are unlikely to find it cost-effective to collect small amounts of waste from many households, this source of animal feed may be underused in industrial systems.

The use of cereals as feed has been fastest in Asia, where output growth has risen the most and land is scarce (Table 15). In Other East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, cereal use as feed grew faster than meat production, indicating that those regions are intensifying their use of feed per unit of meat output (Tables 10 and 15).

Most of Asia, WANA, and Sub-Saharan Africa lack the capacity to produce substantial amounts of feedgrain at competitive prices. The growing amounts of feedgrains imported into these regions attest to this deficiency. Given that many developing countries cannot expand crop area, two possibilities remain: intensification of existing land resources and importation of feed. Because much of the gain from intensification will probably go toward meeting the increasing demand for food crops, substantially more feedgrains will have to be imported by developing countries in the future. Will feedgrain availability, the infrastructure for moving large amounts of grain, and other access-related factors keep up with projected surges in demand?