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close this book Measuring drought and drought impacts in Red Sea Province
close this folder 2. Measuring drought and food insecurity in Red Sea province: in 1987 and 1988: a technique for Pthe rapid assessment of large areas. Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Methods
View the document Results
View the document Conclusion
View the document Discussion
View the document Limitations of the study and comments on the research method
View the document An alternative method
View the document References

Results

Average scores and standard deviations for 1987 and 1988 are presented in the table below. The scores for each assessment zone for 1987 and 1988 are presented in the two tables that follow Table 2.2.

Table 2.2. Average scores and standard deviations on two variables for Red Sea Province, 1987 and 1988.

 

Drought

Impacts

Food

Insecurity

Total

 

1987

1988

1987

1988

1987

1988

Mean

3.25

5.10

6.10

6.89

9.35

12.00

SD

0.76

1.05

1.72

2.03

2.06

2.72

Table 2.3. Drought Impacts and food insecurity scores, Red Sea Province, 1987.

DROUGHT IMPACTS FOOD INSECURITY

Zone

Rain

Veg

Sub

Cash

Food

Stock

Econ

Sub

TOTAL

Deviation

     

Total

Crop

Crop

Cond

Acts

Total

 

from Mean

1a Port Sudan-Tokar Coast

2

1

3

2

2

2

2

8

11

1.65

1b S. Tokar Coast

1

2

3

1

3

2

2

8

11

1.65

2 S. Tokar Central

2

1

3

1

1

2

0

4

7

-2.35

3 S. Tokar Mountain

2

2

4

1

1

2

0

4

8

-1.35

4 Khor baraka-langeb

2

2

4

3

3

2

2

10

14

4.65

6 Derudeb Khor langeb

1

1

2

0

0

2

2

4

6

-3.35

7a RPS-Halaib Central Mountain

1

2

3

1

1

3

1

6

9

-0.35

7b Sinkat/Erkowit Mountain

1

1

2

1

1

2

2

6

8

-1.35

8a Tahamyam East

2

1

3

1

1

2

2

6

9

-0.35

8b Haya,Tahamyam

1

1

2

1

1

2

2

6

8

-1.35

8c Haya, Khor 'Arab Basin

2

2

4

1

2

2

1

6

10

0.65

12 Haya North

2

2

4

1

2

2

1

6

10

0.65

16 Halaib Central Mountain

2

2

4

1

2

3

1

7

11

1.65

17 Halaib Coast South

2

1

3

1

1

3

2

7

10

0.65

18 Halaib Mountain Central

2

2

4

1

2

3

1

7

11

1.65

19 Halaib Mountain North

1

1

2

1

2

2

1

6

8

-1.35

20 Halaib Coast North

2

2

4

1

2

3

2

8

12

2.65

24 RPS-Halaib Central Mountain

2

2

4

1

2

2

1

6

10

0.65

25a Derudeb Central

2

1

3

0

0

2

0

2

5

-4.35

25b Derudeb West

2

2

4

1

2

2

0

5

9

-0.35


Map 2.2. Drought impacts and food Insecurity, Red Sea Province, 1987.

Table 2.4. Drought Impacts and food insecurity scores, Red Sea Province, 1988.

 

DROUGHT IMPACTS

FOOD INSECURITY

Zone

Rain

Veg

Sub

Cash

Food

Stock

Econ

Sub

TOTAL

Deviation

     

Total

Crop

Crop

Cond

Acts

Total

 

from Mean

1 Sarara A

1

3

4

0

0

3

0

3

7

-5

2 Halaib west

no data

3 Khor 'alaagi

2

3

5

0

0

2

2

4

9

-3

4 Sarara B

3

2

5

0

0

2

2

4

9

-3

5 Halaib town

1

3

4

0

0

3

3

6

10

-2

6 Muhammed qul A

1

1

2

0

0

2

3

5

7

-5

7 Gebeit al-ma'adiin

1

3

4

0

0

3

3

6

10

-2

8 Khor oko

3

3

6

0

3

3

3

9

15

3

9 Muhammed qul B

2

3

5

0

0

3

3

6

11

-1

10 Khor arba'at A

2

3

5

0

0

2

3

5

10

-2

11 Khor tumaala/Oko

3

3

6

3

3

3

3

12

18

6

12 Khor 'amuur

3

3

6

0

3

3

2

8

14

2

13 North haya

3

2

5

1

1

2

1

5

10

-2

14 Khor agwampt

3

3

6

0

2

2

2

6

12

0

15 Khor 'udrus B

3

3

6

0

1

2

3

6

12

0

16 Khor 'udrus A

3

3

6

0

3

3

3

9

15

3

17 Khor arba'at B

2

1

3

0

0

2

3

5

8

-4

18 Port Sudan

2

2

4

1

1

3

3

8

12

0

19 Suakin

3

3

6

0

0

3

3

6

12

0

20 Khor akwaat/sallum

3

3

6

0

3

3

3

9

15

3

21 Gebeit/'agaba

3

3

6

0

2

3

3

8

14

2

22 Ayshaf A

3

3

6

0

2

2

2

6

12

0

23 Ayshaf B

3

1

4

0

1

3

3

7

11

-1

24 Erkowit/hadirbab B

3

1

4

0

1

2

1

4

8

-4

25 Hadirbab A

3

3

6

0

3

3

2

8

14

2

26 Khor asot

3

2

5

1

2

2

3

8

13

1

27 Wahribab

3

3

6

0

2

3

3

8

14

2

28 Khor osir

3

3

6

0

0

3

3

6

12

0

29 Suakin/Tokar road area

2

3

5

2

3

2

3

10

15

3

31 Coastal S. Tokar

1

2

3

1

1

2

2

6

9

-3

32 Central S. Tokar

2

2

4

0

2

2

3

7

11

-1

33 Mountain S. Tokar

2

3

5

0

0

2

3

5

10

-2

34 Khor baraka

3

3

6

3

3

2

3

11

17

5

35 Hamashkoreb

Grouped with zone 34

36 Khor langeb

3

3

6

2

2

3

3

10

16

4

37 Derudeb east

3

3

6

0

2

2

3

7

13

1

38 Khor langeb

3

2

5

0

2

2

2

6

11

-1

39 East haya

3

3

6

1

1

3

2

7

13

1

40 Derudeb west

3

3

6

2

3

2

2

9

15

3

 


Map 2.3. Drought impacts and food insecurity, Red Sea Province, 1988.

Two areas experienced low drought impacts and food insecurity in 1987 in Red Sea Province: the Khor Baraka watershed (Zone 4) and the coastal strip from Halaib Town to Egypt (Zone 20). The rest of the coastal strip (Zones 1A, 1B, and 17), the central highlands in Halaib District (Zones 16, 18), and the west central portions of Red Sea Province (Zones 12, 24, and 8C) experienced moderately low drought impacts and food insecurity in 1987. Those areas that experienced moderately high drought impacts and food insecurity in 1987 were west of Halaib (Zone 19), the central and southern Red Sea Hills Zones 7A, 7B, 8A, 8B, and 3), and the Braytek basin in the southwest (Zone 25B). Those areas with the worst scores were two: southcentral Red Sea Province (Zones 25A and 6) and the foothills of the South Tokar mountains (Zone 2) (see Map 2.2).

In 1988 there was a dramatic reversal of position; in general those zones that scored highest in 1987 scored lowest in 1988. Lowest drought impacts and food insecurity was found in the south of the province in Zones 29, 30, 34, 35, 36 and 40), in the centre in the 'Udrus and Akwaat valleys, and in the north centred on Khors Oko and Tumaala in Zones 8 and 11. Moderately low positive scores were registered along the Port Sudan to Suakin coast (Zones 18, 19), in the Khor 'Amour (Zone 12), Agwamt and western 'Udrus watersheds (Zones 15, 14), the Tahamyam-Haya area (Zones 22, 25, 26, 27, 39) into Khor Osir (Zone 28) and south into eastern Derudeb (Zone 37). Zones scoring moderately low below the mean (negative scores) were scattered around the province. This group is composed of Zones 5, 7, 9 and 10 along the north coast, Zones 13 and 28 in the western and southern interior, and Zones 32 and 33 in the South Tokar mountains. The Zones scoring highest in Drought Impacts and Food Insecurity were, for the most part, located in the north of the province. These Zones are 1, 2, 4 and 8. The three other areas scoring the lowest were scattered around the province with no apparent pattern. These zones are 17, 24, and 31.

The figure below presents a view of the differences between the two years. Variables measuring rainfall or a rainfall related product such as pasture, vegetation, agriculture, or agricultural employment all scored higher in 1988. The scores for 1988 were on average 1.85 points higher than 1987 for the Drought Impacts variable and 0.79 points higher for the Food Insecurity variable and 2.65 points higher on both variables. The difference in percent is 57, 13 and 28 percent respectively.


Figure 2.1. Drought Impacts and food Insecurity, Red Sea Province, 1987 and 1988 zone scores.

Map 2.4 below presents change from 1987 to 1988- in the Drought Impacts and Food Insecurity scores. The scores are not marked in standard deviations as in Maps 2.2 and 2.3 but in points change.


Map 2.4. Change in Drought Impacts and Food Insecurity, Red Sea Province, 1987 to 1988.