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close this book Measuring drought and drought impacts in Red Sea Province
View the document Acknowledgements
View the document A Note on Orthography and Other Conventions
View the document Executive summary of the research
close this folder 1. Introduction to Red Sea Province
View the document Physical Geography
View the document Precipitation
View the document Political organisation
View the document Infrastructure, economic activities, and employment
View the document Agriculture
View the document Pastoralism
View the document Drought-coping strategies
View the document Population and human geography
View the document Land Tenure
View the document Gender Relations in Beja society
View the document Overview of famine relief in Red Sea Province
View the document References
View the document Appendix 1.1.
View the document Appendix 1.2.
close this folder 2. Measuring drought and food insecurity in Red Sea province: in 1987 and 1988: a technique for Pthe rapid assessment of large areas. Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Methods
View the document Results
View the document Conclusion
View the document Discussion
View the document Limitations of the study and comments on the research method
View the document An alternative method
View the document References
close this folder 3. Drowght, food stress, and the flood and rainfall record for Red Sea Province. Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Precipitation In Red Sea Province
View the document Flood and rainfall records: problems and possibilities
View the document A definition of drought
View the document The flood record
View the document Drought and the flood record
View the document The rainfall record
View the document Drought and the rainfall record
View the document Conclusion
View the document Discussion
View the document Limitations of the study
View the document References
View the document Appendix 3.1. Annual floods for nine khors In Red Sea Province and Khor Gash in Kassala Province.
View the document Appendix 3.2. Annual flood 2 scores for nine khors in Red Sea Province and Khor Gash in Kassala Province.
View the document Appendix 3.3. Annual rainfall in mililmetres for 19 gauging stations in eastern region, Sudan.
View the document Appendix 3.4. Annual rainfall z scores for 19 gauging stations in eastern
close this folder 4. Drought, the market, and the impact of food aid in Red Sea Province, 1980 to 1989. Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Drought and the market
View the document Cereals prices
View the document Livestock prices
View the document Cereals and livestock price changes
View the document Conclusion and discussion
View the document The impact of the July change in government on livestock prices
View the document Comments on continued general free food distribution
View the document Limitations of the study
View the document References
close this folder 5. Nutritional status of children in Red Sea Province, November 1985 to November 1987. Mary Cole and Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Methods
View the document Results
View the document Conclusions
View the document Discussion
View the document Future directions.
View the document Appendix 5.1. Data collection form, nutritional surveillance teams, Oxfam
View the document Appendix 5.2. Claasifications of coded variables.
View the document Appendix 5.3. Ecozones in Red Sea Province (from Watson, 1976).
View the document Appendix 5.4. Seasons by month and ecozone, Red Sea Province.
View the document Appendix 5.5. Classification of fled Sea Province into food security zones, 1987.
View the document Appendix 5.6. Locations of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 1.
View the document Appendix 5.7. Names of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 1.
View the document Appendix 5.8. Locations of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 2.
View the document Appendix 5.9. Names of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 2.
View the document Appendix 5.10. Locations of sampled sites. nutritional surveillance cycle 3.
View the document Appendix 5.11. Names of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 3.
View the document Appendix 5.12 Locations of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 4.
View the document Appendix 5.13. Names of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 4.
View the document Appendix 5.14 Locations of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 5.
View the document Appendix 5.15. Names of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 5.
View the document Appendix 5.16. Locations of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 6.
View the document Appendix 5.17. Names of sampled sites, nutritional surveillance cycle 6.
close this folder 6. The nutritional status of children in Red Sea Province, July-October 1989: a supplement to the November 1985-November 1987 results. Mary L. Cole and Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Methods
View the document Results
View the document Conclusions
View the document Discussion
close this folder 7. Land tenure, agricultural labour, drought and food stress in the Gash, Gash Dai and Tokar agricultural areas. Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Production in the Gash and Tokar deltas
View the document The Gash Delta
View the document The Tokar Delta
View the document The schemes and food stress
View the document References
View the document Appendix 7.1: Agricultural districts of the Gash Delta.
View the document Appendix 7.2: Blocks (Muraba'a) of Tokar Delta.
close this folder 8. Changes in tree density on five sites in Red Sea Province: early 1960s to 1989. Roy Cole
View the document Summary
View the document Introduction
View the document Methods used in the study
View the document The study sites
View the document Results
View the document Conclusion
View the document Discussion
View the document Limitation of the study
View the document References
View the document Appendix 10.1. Charcoal dealers by quarter and size class, Port Sudan, August 1988.
View the document Appendix 10.2. Total stock of charcoal per class of dealer by quarter, Port Sudan, August 1988.
View the document Appendix 10.3. Some characteristics of charcoal production and trade.
close this folder 11. Conclusion
View the document Some comments on Oxfam and research
View the document Technical glossary

Introduction

Since the Sahel drought of the 1970s analysts of drought and food stress have come a long way in the understanding of the mechanisms that contribute to food stress and mortality in Africa These economic, social, political, or environmental processes acting alone or together may originate from the local, national, or international levels or from a combination of levels. The present paper is concerned with one causal element of all the possible elements that could be examined: drought and price inflation.

Drought-induced cereal price inflation and the consequent turning of the terms of trade against livestock was the principal mechanism identified in Red Sea Province that upset existing exchange entitlements and contributed to higher than normal mortality rates among the rural Beja populations. The terms of trade of goats to sorghum declined from about one to one in the very early 1980s to about six to one in 1984 according to a report by Oxfam (1987). The present paper was written to as a result of new data collection since 1986 and is an attempt to synthesise those data collected in the past with the new data. The study has three objectives:

1. To examine market performance especially that associated with the famine in the mid-1980s in Red Sea Province.

2. To examine how the present inflationary period differs or resembles the early to mid-1980s.

3. To make statements regarding the benefits of free relief food distributions in the past and to evaluate the usefulness of continued free food deliveries in Red Sea Province.

The principal sources of data for the study were Oxfam Port Sudan files, the files of the Tokar Delta Board in Tokar town, and the Department of Agricultural Economics in the Ministry of Agriculture. The Oxfam data were collected by market clerks in the Derudeb and Tokar markets. The data were collected four times a month and, for the purposes of the present study, averaged by year. The Tokar Delta Board data are routinely collected monthly as part of a wider study on the prices of a variety of commodities in Tokar. These data will be presented for both markets below. Cereals prices will be discussed first, then livestock prices, and lastly both will be discussed together prior to the conclusion of the paper.