Emerging Patterns of HIV Incidence in Uganda and other East African Countries (International Center for Migration and Health - ICMH, 1997, 97 pages): AN ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING PATTERNS OF HIV INCIDENCE IN UGANDA AND OTHER EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES: 1.0 Objective of the Consultation

Emerging Patterns of HIV Incidence in Uganda and other East African Countries (International Center for Migration and Health - ICMH, 1997, 97 pages)

AN ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING PATTERNS OF HIV INCIDENCE IN UGANDA AND OTHER EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES

		(introductory text...)
		EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
		1.0 Objective of the Consultation
		2.0 Terms of Reference - methods and activities
		3.0 HIV prevalence declines in antenatal sentinel surveillance sites in Uganda
		4.0 Simulation modelling of HIV incidence dynamics in Uganda with validation to Kampala ANC sentinel surveillance.
		5.0 Declines in HIV incidence/prevalence in urban and semi-urban areas of Uganda: - determinants and analyses of data sources.
		6.0 Evidence for a causal association between urban and semi-urban declines in prevalence and behaviour change in Uganda: - External validation of findings and hypothesis testing through comparative analyses of HIV dynamics and risk behaviours in Uganda, Malawi and Zambia.
		7.0 Population movement and implications for the dynamics of emerging infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: - the social and demographic context.
		8.0 Linkage of HIV incidence and prevalence patterns deduced from surveillance and other data sources and relationship to interventions: - Summary findings and recommendations.
		9.0 Recommendations for USAID Mission Uganda
		10.0 Annex

1.0 Objective of the Consultation

· To evaluate the association between changing HIV incidence and prevalence patterns observed in Uganda and their relationship to potential successes of population based HIV prevention programs.
· To provide recommendations on the utilisation of epidemiological methods to analyse HIV surveillance and behavioural survey data in order to evaluate the effectiveness of HIV interventions.
· To explore methods to relate migration dynamics and differential HIV dynamics and its significance as a general vector of an emerging infectious disease.