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close this bookEmerging Patterns of HIV Incidence in Uganda and other East African Countries (International Center for Migration and Health - ICMH, 1997, 97 pages)
close this folderAN ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING PATTERNS OF HIV INCIDENCE IN UGANDA AND OTHER EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
close this folder4.0 Simulation modelling of HIV incidence dynamics in Uganda with validation to Kampala ANC sentinel surveillance.
View the document(introductory text...)
View the document4.1 Basic principles of HIV dynamics: the relationship of HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality illustrated in 3 simulations for Kampala, Uganda.
View the document4.2 HIV prevalence in ANC clinic and by age: Kampala baseline and incidence reduction simulations.
View the document4.3 HIV mortality and demographic impacts: Kampala baseline and incidence reduction simulations.
View the document4.4 HIV incidence modelling simulations for Kampala women and validation to Kampala ANC sentinel surveillance trends.

4.4 HIV incidence modelling simulations for Kampala women and validation to Kampala ANC sentinel surveillance trends.

The simulation model for urban Kampala was compared to ANC trends overall and by age, in both the baseline and the incidence reduction scenarios. The reduction in incidence was started in the model in 1990, and was maintained for a period of 5 years, resulting in slightly over 50% reduction in HIV incidence. In 1995 no further incidence reduction was simulated. HIV prevalence trends under the incidence reduction scenario are compared to overall Kampala ANC sentinel site trends in Figure 19, and to age-specific prevalence trends for the same site from 1992-96, in Figure 20.


Figure 19: Simulations of HIV prevalence (%) in pregnant women in Kampala Uganda under baseline and incidence reduction scenarios from 1985-2005, compared to HIV prevalence at the Nsambya (Kampala) antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance site, 1985-96.


Figure 20: Simulation of HIV prevalence (%) by age groups from 15 to 34, among '· pregnant women in Kampala Uganda under the incidence reduction scenarios from 1992-96. The simulation (bars) is compared to age-specific HIV prevalence rates at the Nsambya (Kampala) antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance site from 1992-96.

(Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals around the mean prevalence of the empirical data).

The incidence reduction simulations show a very good fit with the observed data and provide substantial validation of the finding that major declines in HIV incidence underlie the observed HIV prevalence trends in young adults, and that the epidemiological model incorporates reasonably valid HIV incidence dynamics for Kampala.