 | Emerging Patterns of HIV Incidence in Uganda and other East African Countries (International Center for Migration and Health - ICMH, 1997, 97 pages) |
 |  | Epidemics and Behaviours: - A review of changes in Ugandan sexual behaviour in the early 1990s |
|  | (introductory text...) |
| | Introduction |
| | Condom use |
| | Sexual debut |
| | Faithfulness to (regular) partner |
| | Sexual abstinence |
| | Conclusion |
| | Selected references |
| | AN ASSESSMENT OF EMERGING PATTERNS OF HIV INCIDENCE IN UGANDA AND OTHER EAST AFRICAN COUNTRIES |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| | 1.0 Objective of the Consultation |
| | 2.0 Terms of Reference - methods and activities |
| | 3.0 HIV prevalence declines in antenatal sentinel surveillance sites in Uganda |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 3.1 External validation of apparent declining HIV prevalence in Uganda: Identification and analyses of collateral data. |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 3.1.1 HIV prevalence trends in blood donors: - National Blood Transfusion Services, Nakasero Blood Bank, and Ministry of Health, Kampala, Uganda. |
| | 3.1.2 HIV prevalence and incidence trends in Military recruits |
| | 3.1.3 HIV prevalence trends in attendees of an AIDS counselling and testing service: - The AIDS Information Centre (AIC) |
| | 3.1.4 HIV prevalence trends in Mulago Hospital ANC, Kampala, 1989-96. |
| | 3.1.5 HIV/TPHA prevalence trends in ANC population: Basic Health Services project, Kabarole District, Western Uganda. |
| | 3.1.6 HIV incidence and prevalence trends in a rural cohort, Masaka district: Medical Research Council (MRC) Programme on AIDS. |
| | 3.1.7 HIV prevalence trends in Rakai District: Makerere, Johns Hopkins, and Columbia Universities. |
| | 4.0 Simulation modelling of HIV incidence dynamics in Uganda with validation to Kampala ANC sentinel surveillance. |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 4.1 Basic principles of HIV dynamics: the relationship of HIV incidence, prevalence and mortality illustrated in 3 simulations for Kampala, Uganda. |
| | 4.2 HIV prevalence in ANC clinic and by age: Kampala baseline and incidence reduction simulations. |
| | 4.3 HIV mortality and demographic impacts: Kampala baseline and incidence reduction simulations. |
| | 4.4 HIV incidence modelling simulations for Kampala women and validation to Kampala ANC sentinel surveillance trends. |
| | 5.0 Declines in HIV incidence/prevalence in urban and semi-urban areas of Uganda: - determinants and analyses of data sources. |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 5.1 Determinants of changing HIV incidence and prevalence patterns |
| | 5.2 Data sources providing insight on determinants: |
| | 5.3 Data supporting evidence for behavior change: decreasing sexual contacts, decreasing concurrent partnerships/shrinking sexual networks, increase in condom use. |
| | 5.3.1 Comparative analyses of the 1989 and 1995 MOH AIDS KABP |
| | 5.3.2 Comparative analysis of 1989 and 1995 KABP by urban and rural HIV risk behaviours: possible reasons for urban declines and rural stability in HIV prevalence. |
| | 5.3.3 Condom distribution: analyses of SOMARC data and condom availability from 1995 MOH KABP. |
| | 5.3.4 Findings from 1995 DHS survey and comparisons to 1995 MOH KABP: future needs. |
| | 5.4 Changes in the prevalence of external factors facilitating transmission: improved management STIs |
| | 5.5 Increasing mortality, ''natural epidemic dynamics'' or saturation of ''core groups''. |
| | 5.6 Measurement error: changing demographic composition of the population as a result of migration; changes in fertility/fecundity of ANC population; laboratory or sampling error. |
| | 6.0 Evidence for a causal association between urban and semi-urban declines in prevalence and behaviour change in Uganda: - External validation of findings and hypothesis testing through comparative analyses of HIV dynamics and risk behaviours in Uganda, Malawi and Zambia. |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 6.1 A comparison of HIV prevalence trends in ANC populations/sentinel sites: Kampala, Uganda; Blantyre, Malawi; and Lusaka, Zambia. |
| | 6.2 A comparison of HIV risk behaviour data in urban populations of Uganda, Malawi and Zambia: |
| | 6.3 HIV incidence dynamics and demographic impacts: Blantyre, Malawi |
| | 7.0 Population movement and implications for the dynamics of emerging infectious diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: - the social and demographic context. |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 7.1 Population movement in sub-Saharan Africa and its relationship to HIV |
| | (introductory text...) |
| | 7.1.1 An investigation of population movement and its association with differential urban-rural HIV prevalence: - patterns of internal migration as potential geographic vectors for the HIV transmission. |
| | 7.1.2 Simulation of population HIV prevalence under three migration patterns: - evidence for the association of rural-urban-rural circulation pattern and a more severe and sustained HIV epidemic. |
| | 7.1.3 Military conflict as a magnifier of HIV spread: the ecological association of severely HIV impacted parishes and sites of troop encampments in 1979-80, Rakai District, Uganda. |
| | 8.0 Linkage of HIV incidence and prevalence patterns deduced from surveillance and other data sources and relationship to interventions: - Summary findings and recommendations. |
| | 8.1 Summary findings in Uganda and Malawi |
| | 8.2 Summary findings: - Population movement and disease dynamics |
| | 8.3 Recommendations for USAID |
| | 9.0 Recommendations for USAID Mission Uganda |
| | 10.0 Annex |
| | INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR MIGRATION AND HEALTH |
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