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7. Analysis of Teacher Supply and Demand

The central question that this section explores is what is the likely demand for primary teachers in the short and medium term? The answer to this question is important because it will determine what alternative methods of training are financially and logistically viable as the first phase of MIITEP reaches its conclusion. Decisions will have to be made within the next two years about the future modes of provision. In particular, if the numbers needed on a recurrent basis are within the capacity of the present College system, conventional full-time pre-career PRESET may be an option. If they are not, then either a system with a similar capacity to MIITEP to qualify large numbers of trainees is needed or substantial expansion of College enrolments has to be contemplated.

The Malawi primary education system has grown dramatically since the election of a new government and the consequent announcement of a free primary education policy. Enrolments grew from 1.8 million to about 3 million over no more than a year. As described above MIITEP was developed to train approximately 18,000 teachers over four years. At present this is the only method of training new primary teachers. It is apparently the case that no new teachers have been appointed to the establishment since the beginning of 1998. In 1997 3,000 were recruited to cover the gap created by MIITEP students during their full-time training period.

On the supply side a simple analysis can show some of the characteristics of those likely to be trained as new teachers. In 1997 the total number of pupils graduating from the secondary school system with passes in MSCE was about 8,000. The numbers with credits in English and in mathematics were about half of this. This represents the annual pool of those with this level of qualification. The MSCE pass rate appears to have been dropping which will reduce the numbers becoming available. Most of those who succeed are in government schools. The number passing JCE was about 61,000 with the great majority of successful candidates originating in the MCDE schools. Table 21 shows this.

Table 21: Pass Rates for Different Types of Schools 1997

MSCE graduates are qualified for University and College entry. There appear to be about 1,500 places available each year. Secondary teacher training has been absorbing small numbers of MSCE graduates. This is planned to grow but it is unclear how many additional teachers will be required since the rate of expansion has not been determined (Ministry of Education 1996). If the PIF is implemented then several thousand new secondary teachers will be needed and these will be drawn from the ranks of MSCE graduates. A proportion of those graduating will not enter the labour market for domestic reasons e.g. marriage. A larger number will seek other forms of employment outside the education system. If 25% of MSCE graduates applied to teacher training about 2,000 would be available each year. Of these perhaps half or more would opt for secondary training if it is expanded leaving no more than about 1,000 to enter primary teacher training.

If primary teacher training is to continue on a substantial scale it is clear that in the short to medium term most applicants will continue to be JCE holders⁶. This was the case with the MIITEP recruitment and remains the case amongst those teachers who are untrained and not in MIITEP. Whatever training arrangements are devised needs to recognise this probable constraint.

⁶ The pass rate at MSCE further deteriorated in 1999 to average about 11%, thus worsening the supply side problem.

Analysing demand is more complex. In 1997 the eight-year primary school system in Malawi enrolled 2.82 million pupils in over 3,700 schools. In 1997 43,400 teachers were listed as employed, about half of whom were classified as unqualified (Basic Education Statistics 1997). The Policy and Investment Framework for Malawi targets a pupil-teacher ratio of 60:1 for primary schools which generates a total demand for teachers of about 48,500 without adjustment for the fact not all teachers teach all the time or that some schools are over staffed. The currently approved teacher establishment is about 52,000. If the cadre were complete with teachers in post the PTR in 1997 would have been 54:1. This figure might be sufficient to include an adjustment for maldistribution of teachers and for small schools, which recognises that achieving 60:1 in most schools involves providing a larger number of teachers than 60:1 suggests.

However, 2,500 primary teachers are in MCDE/CDSSs not primary schools. This means that only 40,900 are teaching in primary schools. With total enrolment of 2.82 million pupils the actual average PTRs were about 69:1 during this period⁷.

⁷ The MIITEP 1998 database yields a school by school average ptr of about 74:1. The difference is largely explained by the different ways of calculating the average (i.e. total enrolment/total teachers or school by school).

To put it another way if 52,000 teachers are needed to reach a PTR 54:1 (equivalent to 60:1 in most schools), then the shortfall of teachers is currently 11,100. A further 24,000 are untrained (including those who have not yet qualified through MIITEP) and these teachers will need upgrading to trained status.

Several refinements are needed to this simple analysis to establish the answer to the key question posed.

First, a substantial proportion of the teachers who were untrained in 1997 have been enrolled in MIITEP and are in the process of qualifying. This is shown in Table 22. 16,200 were enrolled in the six Colleges of Education. The first cohort graduated in the first quarter of 1999.

Table 22: Enrolments by Cohort for Different Colleges

Assuming 15% of MIITEP students fail to qualify or leave the programme, total output between January 1999 and January 2001 will be about 13,750, or 6,874 per year⁸. If 25% of those who start fail to finish successfully output will fall to 12,100, or 6,050 per year.

⁸ It appears tht 468 returned to Blantyre College for the examination period from Cohort 1. This compares with 513 initially enrolled. This is 11% attrition before the examination results are known.

The most recent survey by MIITEP indicates that there are about 7,500 untrained teachers currently teaching who are not enrolled in MIITEP. The actual number may be marginally larger than this due to some non-returns to their survey. An estimate of 8000 needing training is therefore reasonable and consistent with the other figures above. Most of these untrained teachers who are not in MIITEP have a JCE qualification level. A recent survey indicates only about 800 have achieved MSCE passes. This means it is not feasible to require MSCE as a minimum entry requirement in the short term without excluding most untrained teachers.

Second, achieving a pupil-teacher ratio of 60:1 in most schools will require an average PTR of somewhat greater size. This is because PTRs are very unevenly distributed between schools and it is unrealistic to assume that even in a 10-year period such differences will disappear. Small under-enrolled schools and well-resourced urban schools popular with teachers may retain ratios well under 60:1; rural schools unpopular with teachers may continue to have PTRs over 100.

The most recent Ministry request to DEOs to identify surpluses and shortages of teachers in schools was based on a PTR of 60:1. Adjustments are included to take into account the need for schools to have a minimum of five teachers (one for each grade even if enrolments fall below 300 in five grade schools). This generates a demand for about 7,500 teachers. It is unclear how surpluses and shortages have been combined in this Ministry study. If the two have simply been added the result is an under-estimate since it will not be the case that all teachers in schools with a surplus (PTR less than 60:1) can be re-deployed to those where there is a deficit. Actual demand may therefore be more than 7,500, and possibly as much as 10,000 depending on the viability of relocation. The PIF commits the Ministry of Education to build classrooms with a capacity for 60 pupils. This is inconsistent with a PTR of 60:1 since this does not include a margin to account for non-teaching heads and deputies. To achieve class sizes of 60 a PTR of closer to 50:1 is probably needed which would increase teacher demand by up to 20% above the figures projected.

Third, some primary teachers have migrated to the Malawi Distance Education College system. Between 1996 and 1997 the number of MCDE teachers increased by about 500. These teachers are mostly trained primary school teachers who continue to be paid from the primary school budget. If the community schools which are replacing MCDE schools continue to grow at this rate they will create an additional recurrent demand for trained primary teachers to replace those who leave primary teaching⁹.

⁹ As of 2000 the numbers of DEC/CDSS students have been capped. In principle this should stem the flow out of primary teaching into these schools. It remains to be seen if the policy will be effective.

If secondary school enrolments were allowed to grow as planned to reach a 30% transition rate into Form 1 by 2005 the total number of pupils in the new public secondary system would need to grow. The PIF identifies a need for about 120,000 additional places implying that the number of secondary teachers would have to increase by about 15,000¹⁰ if all were qualified and on the public payroll. What proportion of these new teachers would be upgraded primary teachers is unknown. It is plausible that a significant number of primary school teachers (especially those in MCDE schools) will upgrade their qualifications.

¹⁰ These estimates are approximations. A more detailed study is underway to offer a more refined analysis.

In any event it needs to be noted that all current MCDE teachers (2,470) are primary teachers paid from the primary budget and not teaching in primary schools¹¹. Thus, as noted above, the number of primary teachers currently teaching in primary schools is not 43,400 but 40,930. This creates an additional demand to replace these teachers if the 60:1 PTR is to be realised. The future of MCDE teachers is uncertain but it seems that many may be offered the opportunity to upgrade to secondary status.

¹¹ This historic practice should change in 2000. so that all are paid from the secondary budget.

Fourth, attrition within the existing cadre of primary teachers will be a substantial source of recurrent demand for new teachers. There appear to have been 49,140 teachers in post in 1996 (Basic Education Statistics 1997) and 43,400 in 1997 in both cases including MIITEP trainees. If it is the case that during this period new teachers were not appointed then 5,500 teachers left the service equivalent to an attrition rate of 11% per annum. If annual attrition were only 7% then about 3000 teachers a year would need replacing.

Fifth, none of the calculations on demand vary assumptions about the current rates of repetition and drop-out. Currently enrolments in grade 8 (147,000) are 18% of those in grade 1 (817,500), primarily as a result of drop-out. If repetition were reduced enrolments would fall as pupils moved more rapidly through the system. If drop-out falls enrolments will increase. The effects of such changes can be projected. Their magnitude depends on the rate at which repetition and drop-out fall in each grade.

The most likely short-term effect of successful reductions in repetition and drop-out is a net increase in enrolments. This is because drop-out appears highest in the lowest grades, whereas repetition rates are more evenly distributed and are highest in grade 8, which has the least enrolments (Table 23). Reducing the claimed 28% drop-out between grades 1 and 2 to 14% would increase enrolments in grade 2 by over 110,000 requiring more teachers in the short term to maintain the PTR. Simulations can estimate the effects of drop-out and repetition reduction (see below). If drop-out was reduced to an average of 5% and repetition to 7% over 10 years an additional 2,000-4,000 teachers a year would be needed to maintain PTRs for the first five years after which demand would begin to fall slowly.

Table 23: Repetition and Drop-out Rates by Grade 1997

Sixth, underlying all projections of teacher demand is the growth in the size of the school age cohort. If this is 2% per annum, it generates a demand for an additional 1,000 teachers per year, assuming full enrolment. If the cohort were not growing, which is unlikely, no additional teachers would be needed for this reason.

Table 24 accumulates the estimates of demand. The conclusion from the analysis is that annual training demand is between 9,000 and 14,000 if all government objectives were to be met and the assumptions above held true. It may be that some of the assumptions are unduly pessimistic and that in any case progress towards targets will be slower than anticipated. This would lower demand. Nevertheless an output of teachers similar to that planned for MIITEP is likely to be needed for a sustained period. The annual capacity of primary Colleges of Education is about 8,100 under the MIITEP system. Under a conventional full-time PRESET system annual capacity would be 2,700.

Table 24: Teacher Demand

Teacher requirements for primary can be modelled to update the projections made in the PIF and examine the effects of different changes on demand. This has been done using an enrolment-driven model with the data initially obtained from the 1997/8 school census statistical report and using the methods used in the PIF. For simplicity the consequences of changed enrolment and expenditure at secondary level have been omitted from this model. Depending on how rapidly secondary school enrolments grow, and what effect they have on the staffing of primary schools, secondary expansion may create additional demands for primary teachers as some upgrade to secondary status.

Simulation 1 allows drop-out and repetition rates to fall from current values to 5% over the next 10 years with the exception of grade 8 where repetition remains at 20% to account for examination retaking. The entry rate into grade 1 falls from its current value of about 190% to 130% as overage enrolment diminishes and there is less repetition in grade 1. Teacher attrition in the simulation is 7% p.a. The 1997 PIF assumes a rise in attrition rates to 7-8% by year 2000 (recent estimates suggest attrition may be higher). The growth rate of the school age cohort is estimated at 2%. As predicted enrolments and consequently teacher demand rise as a result of the dominant effect of drop-out reduction. In the longer term demand falls as the effects of lower repetition and a fall in the entry rate into grade 1 are felt. Annual demand peaks at about 7,500 in 2001. This does not account for the training needed to upgrade those untrained in the system, to replace those working in MCDE/CDSS schools, or to reach the establishment level of employment.

If the growth rate in the primary school age cohort falls from 2% to 1.5% the number of teachers needed will diminish. However, if attrition rates amongst teachers are not the 7% assumed in Simulation 1 but 11%, (11% appears to have been the attrition in 1996-1997), then the numbers needed will increase. The result of these adjustments is shown in Simulation 2. In simulation 2 demand peaks at nearly 10,000 teachers a year in 2002 as a result of reductions in drop-out, decreased repetition, cohort growth and attrition. Like Simulation 1 this does not include any reduction in the backlog of untrained teachers over and above those already enrolled in MIITEP, any replacement of MCDE/CDSS teachers not teaching at primary level, or any recruitment to establishment levels.

The Simulations confirm that primary teacher demand is very substantial and growing. It is of a size that implies that higher output is required from the teacher education system. In the absence of this, pupil-teacher ratios will increase and class sizes grow.

Figure 8: Simulation 1 Primary Teachers Needed

Figure 9: Simulation 2 Primary Teachers Needed