3.2 The Projections

Figure 5 shows enrolment changes in the baseline model. Primary enrolment declines from its present level of around 170,000 in public schools to about 105,000 in 2013. Secondary enrolments increase as a 100% transition rate into secondary is achieved, and peak at about 120,000 in 2006. Figure 6 indicates how the costs of the school system will change as a result of the expansion of secondary school participation. Overall costs will fall as total enrolment falls. No real increase in budgetary allocation would be needed to sustain the changes incorporated into the baseline model to achieve universal secondary education if pupil-teacher ratios and costs per student remain at existing levels.

Figure 7 indicates how many teachers would be needed to support the school system if existing pupil-teacher ratios were maintained.

Figure 5: Enrolment Projections 1996-2013

Figure 6: Recurrent Expenditure on Primary and Secondary as a Proportion of Current Expenditure 1999-2013

Figure 7: Demand for New Teachers 1996-2013

The demand for new primary teachers is negative since teacher attrition is less than the rate of contraction in enrolments. The conclusion appears to be that new primary teachers are not needed and that initial training should be on a care and maintenance basis with a small output. Demand for secondary teachers as a result of increased participation peaks at about 400 a year and then falls as the long-term effects of falling school numbers have an impact.

However, these projections of teacher demand ignore the need to train those currently untrained in the system. There are over 1,600 untrained teachers in primary schools who will need to become fully qualified. This could be achieved in successive intakes into the existing Colleges. This demand needs to be added to the projections made below. If these teachers were retrained over 4 years it would create an additional demand of 400 places per year to be added to the figures in the projections. At secondary level half of all teachers do not possess a professional qualification. These number about 2,400. If these untrained secondary teachers were to receive professional training over six years this would create an additional demand of 400 trainees per year.

It is also true that if other quality improvements were made in the school system demand for teachers would change. If repetition rates were reduced through a combination of automatic promotion, elimination of the common entrance examination, and more effective schools, teacher demand would fall as pupils moved through the system faster. If repetition rates were reduced to no more than 2% in each grade the result would be as shown in Figure 8. Here even fewer teachers are needed and demand for new secondary teachers fall to minimal levels after less than 10 years. (This excludes the training needs of untrained teachers currently in the system mentioned above).

Figure 8: Demand for New Teachers 1996-2013

Figure 9 shows what the effect would be if the age cohort ceased to shrink at 3% as a result of an increase in the birth rate to replacement levels i.e. a constant size cohort with zero growth.

Figure 9: Demand for New Teachers 1996-2013

In this case primary teacher demand peaks at nearly 200 a year after 10 years in a system with low repetition. Secondary teacher demand fluctuates as at first teachers are required to meet the demands of expanded enrolment and later the recovery in the birth rate ripples through into secondary enrolments.

Finally, the effect of decreasing the pupil-teacher ratio can be simulated. If secondary pupil-teacher ratios were to fall to 15:1 and primary to 20:1. Figure 10 shows the effect on teacher demand.

Figure 10: Demand for New Teachers 1996-2013

Demand for primary teachers increases in the first period as pupil-teacher ratios are reduced; demand for secondary teachers is much greater initially for the same reason. Primary demand stabilises at about 200 per year and secondary 400 per year.

The cost of the education system with all these developments would be about 15% greater than it is currently. If the size of the age group of school children continued to shrink costs would be at or below currently levels, but the system would be more efficient with lower repetition rates, pupil-teacher ratios would be significantly lower than in 1999, and all children could attend secondary schools.

When the additional demand created by the need to train the 1,600 untrained teachers currently in the system is added to these projections it is clear that over the period from now until about 2004 the back log of untrained primary teachers could be eliminated. From then on there is a recurrent demand for primary teachers sufficient to support one College intake. If both Colleges are to continue to train primary teachers, then there will be a need to re-profile the contribution they make to primary teacher development to include other kinds of support in addition to initial training. Secondary training needs should include the professional training of those currently untrained (say 400 a year for six years). This places annual demand between 800 and 1,000 in the first years subsequently falling to about 300 per year.

It is unknown what proportion of demand for new secondary teachers may be met by primary teachers migrating to secondary. Previous expansion of the secondary system did result in a significant number of primary teachers retraining to teach in secondary and draw higher salaries. If these numbers are substantial then this will increase the demand for primary teachers.

The costs of supporting the fluctuations in demand the model simulates depend on how the primary Colleges are managed. Existing staffing levels sustain annual enrolments of about 400 and it is clear that the Colleges have the capacity to train these numbers. If new entrants fall below this level and College staff are retained then opportunities exist to increase quality and contact time with smaller groups of trainees. If the number of new entrants recruited falls to 200 or so then more radical options may need consideration.