2. Background and Introduction

The teacher work force in South Africa has been undergoing turbulent change in the last few years as a result of a variety of factors. These include the merger of the old departments of education, the differing approaches adopted by Provincial governments to retrenchment and recruitment related to needs and financial resources, changes in the framework for teacher’s qualifications, and the reorganisation of teacher education provision. The onset of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is now adding a new dimension to the turbulence experienced so far and has implications both for the supply and demand for teachers.

In order to put some parameters around past and future turbulence, this paper develops a systematic analysis of the main data sources available on teachers. We analysed the 1995, 1997, and 1999 October Household Surveys (OHS) and set up comparisons between teacher and non-teacher members of the working labour force across time. We took a cross-sectional cut of the entire PERSAL² database as it applied to employees of education departments in both November 1998 and November 1999 (exactly one year apart) in order to judge the dynamics of entry and exit into this database (and, hence, into the public teaching workforce) over a 1-year period. We undertook systemic demographic forward-modelling of the sector, based on the data from these sources as well as from administrative records. Finally, we analysed various other aspects of the data. We expected to be able to document great turbulence and critical trends. We expected to be able to make simple and portentous macro-level statements. What we found provides are range of insights which are worrying, but far too nuanced to result in statements that are portentous and simple.

² PERSAL is the central personnel database system for tracking certain characteristics of the employees of the state. It can be accessed centrally for analytical purposes, and locally for data entry.