(introduction...)

ADF 2000

Figure

Presented by:
Anita Alban and Lorna Guinness, UNAIDS

From “Health Issue” to “Development Crisis”

· Destruction of social capital

- Knowledge base of society
- Production sectors: agriculture, industry

· Weakening of institutions

- Governance, civil service, judiciary, armed forces, education, health
- Inhibition of private sector growth

· Wider, deeper poverty

Economic Growth Impact of HIV (1990-97)

Figure 2: Growth Impact of HIV (1990-97) (80 developing countries)

Source: R. Bonnel (2000) Economic Analysis of HIV/AIDS, ADF2000 Background paper, World Bank

HIV/AIDS changes the welfare of countries

In 1998 UNDP estimated that the Human Development Index (HDI) of South Africa would be 15% lower due to AIDS in 2010.

Source: HIV/AIDS & Human Development South Africa, UNAIDS & UNDP, 2000

Orphans: A Lost Generation

· Numbers are large and growing

· Social support systems are overwhelmed

· Risk of a lost generation:

- little or no education
- poor socialization
- social upheaval
- economic underclass

Orphans as a result of AIDS, Zambia

Figure

Source: HIV/AIDS in Zambia, 1997

HIV prevalence in Nigerian military personnel according to years of duty as peacekeepers, 1998 - 1999

Figure

Source: Adefolalu A. 3rd All African Congress of Armed Forces and Police Medical Services, 1999, Pretoria

Impact at the Household Level

Production & earnings		Investment and consumption		Household health and composition		Psychic costs
¨	Reduced income	¨	Medical costs	¨	Health maintaining activities reduced	¨	Disutility to individual
¨	Reduced productivity	¨	Funeral costs	¨	Loss of deceased	¨	Grief of survivors
¨	Reallocation of labour & land	¨	Legal fees	¨	Poor health of survivors
		¨	Dissavings	¨	Dissolution of household
		¨	Changes in consumption & investment

Source: Terminology - S. Kongsin, 2000

Impact of HIV/AIDS in urban households, Côte d’Ivoire

Figure

Source: Simulation-based on data from Bechu, Delcroix and Guillaume, 1997

Household Impact of HIV/AIDS in Rwanda

·

Household Impact: Caring for Orphans

· A study from Uganda shows that 25% of households are providing for an orphan

Source: Lyons, M. 1997

· A study from Tanzania shows that 21% of the families in Bukoba district were fostering an orphan

Source: Rugalema, 1999

Production in households with an AIDS death in Zimbabwe

Crops	Reduction in output
· Maize	61%
· Cotton	47%
· Vegetables	49%
· Groundnuts	37%
· Cattle owned	29%

Source: P. Kwaramba 1997

Funeral expenses, commercial farm, Kenya

Figure

Source: Rugalema et al. 1999

Impact on the Business sector

· The impact on business depends on the benefit package offered by individual firms & include:

- costs of treatment and funerals,
- absenteeism,
- replacement workers,
- reduced productivity
- re-training and
- family pensions

Costs to Businesses

· Costs of HIV to 5 firms in Botswana is estimated to rise 7 times between 1996 & 2004 to equal 5% of the wage bill

Source: Greener, R. 1997

· Production loss as a result of AIDS was shown to be more than 3% of gross profit in 1995/96 on a Malawi tea estate

Source: Jones, C. 1997

The cost of AIDS to business depends on labor intensity (% of profit)

Figure

Source: AIDSCAP, 1996

Demand & Supply for Education

Demand:

- The school enrollment rate among orphans was 39% in Central African Republic, two thirds of the national rate of 60%

Source: Survey from CAR, UNICEF, 1999

Supply:

- 12% of all educators in South Africa were estimated to be HIV positive in 2000

Source: Coombe, C. 2000

Children who have lost a teacher to AIDS

· More than 1% of the children in 19 countries have experienced a teacher who has died from AIDS

· More than 2% of the children in Namibia have experienced a teacher who has died from AIDS

· In Zambia and Zimbabwe, the percentage is more than 3%

· In Botswana, with the highest HIV prevalence in Africa, 4% of the children have lost a teacher to AIDS.

Source: UNICEF/UNAIDS, 2000

Bed occupancy required for AIDS patients, Zimbabwe

Figure

Source: UNAIDS, 2000

Potential AIDS treatment costs as a percent of the Ministry of Health Budget

Figure

Source: Stover & Bollinger, 1999