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close this bookBujagali Hydroelectric Power Project - Environmental Impact Statement, Final Report, Volume 1 - Main Report (WS Atkins International, 1999, 320 p.)
close this folder4. DESCRIPTION OF THE EXISTING ENVIRONMENT
View the documentPhysical Environment
View the documentBiological Environment
View the documentSocio-Economic Environment

Socio-Economic Environment

History of Development

4.131 Traditionally the area along the river Nile in south-east Uganda was occupied on the east bank by the Busoga people and on the west bank by the Baganda. Their language and culture have many similarities although whilst the Baganda were centrally organised the Busoga consisted on a group of small independent societies. The history of development in the area can be summarised as a number of stages.

Pre 1900

4.132 The Budondo area was densely populated being the heart of Busoga land but in the second half of the 19th century the population decreased due to a sleeping sickness epidemic. The west bank was less severely affected.

The Colonial Period - 1900 to 1962

4.133 The east bank was repopulated during the 1940's and there was extensive settlement and clearance of forest. On the west bank vast areas of forest were cleared over a ten year period following the eradication of the mbwa fly in 1952. Settlers came from all parts of Uganda as well as other East African countries. As a result both banks have the most heterogeneous population in the whole of Uganda. The best land was cleared first and cash crops were planted, particularly cotton and bananas. Bush vegetation was left in swampy areas and on the dry hills. Later coffee was planted and cassava, sweet potatoes and groundnuts introduced as subsistence food crops. Jinja town grew rapidly in the 1950's in the wake of the construction of the Owen Falls dam.

Independence - 1962 to 1971

4.134 Coffee was developed as the main cash crop. Jinja continued to expand and became a major marketing centre and industrial base. The area was relatively prosperous.

Instability - 1971 to 1985

4.135 During this period there was political insecurity and economic collapse. Jinja town was badly affected, particularly due to the expulsion of the Indian population. Cotton was eliminated due to a fall in world market prices and an indiscriminate marketing policy towards peasants. People were afraid of accumulating wealth and reverted to subsistence agriculture, remaining in their villages.

Recovery - 1986 to today

4.136 Population pressure in the area grows, particularly since the opening of the Forest Reserves. Swamps were drained and subdivision of land intensified. Plots were divided into long strips stretching from the roads to the hills or swamps to include both better and poorer land equally. Practically the whole area is now cultivated and very little forest remains. There were a number of rehabilitation projects in industry, energy and road development and Jinja expanded providing both a market and employment opportunities. Linkages between the town and the rural areas increased.

Population Characteristics

4.137 The purpose of this section is to provide information on the characteristics of the current population within the area likely to be affected by the project. Data from the 1991 census are available at District, County, Sub-county and Parish level in Uganda although most of the data are only available on a district wide basis. For the purpose of this exercise data for Jinja and Mukono Districts are considered and where relevant this is compared to data at national level.

Population Levels

4.138 The population of Jinja District in 1991 was 289,476 and in Mukono District it was 824,606. Within the administrative areas immediately adjacent to the Nile in the vicinity of the proposed scheme the population was 292,086, distributed as shown below. This represents 26% of the total population of Jinja and Mukono Districts together.

Population Growth

4.139 The population of Jinja District grew by 1.46% p.a. between 1969 and 1980 and by 2.15% pa between 1980 and 1991. The population of Mukono District grew by 1.35% pa and 2.39% in the same periods respectively. In more recent years the population has therefore been growing at a slightly faster rate in Mukono. The population growth rate for Uganda as a whole was 2.71% pa between 1969 and 1980 and 2.52% pa between 1980 and 1991 which is higher than both the districts under study. Interestingly the national population growth rate is declining whilst that near the project area is increasing.

Age-Sex Structure

4.140 The broad age and gender structure of the population of Jinja and Mukono Districts as compared to Uganda as a whole is shown in Tables 4.8 and 4.9 below.

Table 4.8 - Population Age Structure in Jinja and Mukono Districts

Percentage of Population

Age group

Jinja

Mukono

Uganda

0-4

19.2

19.1

18.9

5-14

26.7

28.5

28.4

15-64

51.7

48.6

49.3

65+

2.4

3.8

3.4

Source: 1991 census

Table 4.9 - Gender Distribution in the Project Area


Male

Female

Total

East Bank




Budondo Sub-county

16,272

17,409

33,681

Mafubira Sub-county

49,860

48,148

98,008

Jinja Municipal Council

32,578

32,951

65,529

Sub-total

98,710

98,508

197,218

West Bank




Wakisi Sub-county

14,208

13,925

28,133

Njeru Town Council

18,109

18,622

36,731

Nyenga Sub-county

15,016

14,988

30,004

Sub-total

47,333

47,535

94,868

Total

146,043

146,043

292,086

Source: 1991 census

4.141 Jinja and Mukono have a similar proportion of population in the 0-4 age group, which is slightly above the national average. Mukono has a larger proportion in the school age group and equates closely to that of Uganda as a whole whilst the proportion in Jinja is a little lower. Conversely Mukono has a lower proportion in the working age groups, below the Uganda average, whilst Jinja is somewhat higher. The population over 65 years of age is markedly lower than the national average in Jinja whilst in Mukono District it is higher.

4.142 Mukono has a slightly higher proportion of males (49% of population) than Jinja District which is comparable to the national figure.

Rural-Urban Distribution

4.143 Not surprisingly Jinja has a much higher urban population (27%) than Mukono District (12%) due to the presence of Uganda's second largest town. Nationally, the urban population represents 11% of the total.

Religion

4.144 There is a higher proportion of Muslims in both Jinja District (21.5%) and Mukono District (19.1%) than in Uganda as a whole. The proportion of Catholics is lower than the national average in both districts although significantly higher in Mukono District (39%) than Jinja (28%). The proportion of Protestants in Mukono relates closely to the national average (39%) but is much higher in Jinja (48%).

Ethnic Structure

4.145 Within Jinja the dominant ethnic group is the Busoga who represent 65% of the population. Other significant groups are the Baganda (8%), the Iteso (5%) and the Banyole (4%). Thirty other ethnic groups are represented in the District although the number of persons in each group is very small.

4.146 Within Mukono District the dominant ethnic group is the Baganda who make up 56% of the population. There are however several ethnic groups with substantial populations including the Badama, Bagisu, Banyarwanda, Barundi, Busoga and Iteso which all comprise at least 3% of the population. The population of Mukono is therefore more evenly distributed between tribal groups than that of Jinja.

4.147 In the locality of the project site, Baganda predominate on both banks (data from socio-economic survey).

Literacy and Educational Attainment

4.148 Sixty-seven percent of the population over 10 years of age is literate in Jinja District whilst in Mukono it is 61%, probably due to the influence of Jinja town. In both districts it is higher than the national average (54%).

4.149 A number of indicators are available to compare levels of educational achievement. The proportion of the population over the age of 6 who have never attended school is 26% in Jinja and 28% in Mukono compared to a national average of 37%. The proportion of the population between the ages of 6 and 12 that have attended primary school is 66% in Jinja and 68% in Mukono compared to a national average of 57%. Forty-two percent of the population over 15 in Jinja have completed primary school and 17% over the age of 20 have completed secondary school compared to 30% and 7% respectively in Mukono District and 25% and 7% respectively nationally. From these statistics it can be concluded that standards of education in the study area are generally higher than nationally, particularly in Jinja District.

Household Characteristics

Household Size

4.150 The information on household size given in the census does not equate to the size of households as revealed by the baseline socio-economic survey. This is most probably due to the method of calculation - the census using the nuclear family unit and the baseline survey using the extended family unit. Comparing the census data of the two districts the size is slightly larger in Jinja (4.6) than Mukono (4.3) but both are below the national average (4.8).

Housing Conditions and Tenure

4.151 The proportions of households in owner-occupied dwellings is lower in Jinja (46%) than in Mukono (72%) which in turn is below the national average (80%). Jinja's low proportion can be attributed typically to a higher degree of renting in urban areas. The proportion of households living in free accommodation (mainly institutional population) is higher in Jinja (13%) than Mukono (19%) but both are well above the national average (5%).

4.152 The proportion of population living in accommodation built since 1986 (i.e. relatively new accommodation) is lower in Jinja (23%) than Mukono (34%) but both are lower than the national average (42%).

4.153 The proportion of households with access to electricity or gas is far higher in Jinja than in Mukono and in Uganda as a whole. Equally the proportions with access to a safe water supply (piped, protected borehole or well) are higher in Jinja (20%) than in Mukono (11%) but those in Mukono are well below the national average (18%).

Economic Characteristics

Economically Active Population

4.154 The economically active population in various age categories is given in Table 4.10 below.

Table 4.10 - Age Distribution of the Economically Active Population in the Project Area (percent)

Percent of population

Age Group

Jinja

Mukono

Uganda

10+ years

30

37

39

10-64

46

56

59

25-39

66

78

81

Source: 1991 census

4.155 The proportion of economically active children is lower in Jinja than Mukono, which relates closely to the national average. This corresponds with higher school enrolment rates in Jinja. The same pattern is apparent in the 10-64 and 25-39 age groups due mainly to the lower female participation rates in the Jinja urban area.

Economic Activities

4.156 The proportion of economically active population engaged in agriculture is 42% in Jinja compared to 75% in Mukono and 77% nationally. This is due to the presence of the Jinja urban area. The proportion is the same for males and females in each area.

4.157 The proportion of both males and females who have subsistence farming as their main source of livelihood is lower in Jinja (37%) than Mukono (57%) although interestingly the proportions in Mukono are significantly below the national average (68%). The numbers engaged in commercial farming are however much higher in Mukono (3.6%) than in Jinja and nationally (1.3%). This is due to the presence of a number of plantations in Mukono District.

4.158 The proportions involved in trading are higher in Jinja (13%) and relate closely to the national average whilst that in Mukono is lower (9%). The proportions gaining an income from formal sector employment are, as expected, higher in Jinja (37%) than Mukono (18%) although the latter is above the national average (13%).

Land Use and Settlement Patterns

4.159 The town of Jinja, which is the second largest town in Uganda and is the administrative centre for Jinja District, dominates the project area. It is a major industrial centre containing paper, textile, beer, plastics, flour milling, food processing, leather and other industries. It has a substantial commercial centre providing hotel, business and social services for a wide hinterland. It also functions as a tourist base for visitors to the source of the Nile and the Bujagali Falls and acts as a marketing centre for agricultural produce from the surrounding area. The town has a strategic location on the main route from the Democratic Republic of Congo through Kampala to Mombasa, which also gives it a significant trading function. On the western bank is the small satellite centre of Njeru, which contains a number of industrial and service activities.

4.160 The area immediately to the north of Jinja is currently dominated on the east bank by the construction works of the Owen Falls Extension. There are a number of quarries, borrow areas and waste sites. This area also contains a number of industrial developments and the Jinja airstrip.

4.161 To the north of these urban areas the land use and settlement pattern changes to one which is rural in character (Figure 6). On the west bank settlement is concentrated along the main Jinja - Kayunga road which is metalled and in good condition. There is almost continual linear development along this road through the project area. Between the main road and the river there are a number of minor roads and tracks giving access to clusters of homesteads within the villages of Nkokonjeru, Naminya, Buloba, Malindi and Kikubamutwe.

4.162 On the east bank settlement is concentrated along the main road from Jinja to Kamuli. From Buwenda northwards the road is murram. At Ivunamba the main road turns in a north-easterly direction and access to the project area is via a complex network of tracks of varying width and quality. A road has recently been constructed from Ivunamba to give access to Kyabirwa Falls. It is proposed that the northern section of this road is widened and used as a temporary access to the project site on the east bank. The main tracks extend from Ivunamba due west to the Bujagali Falls, and north to Kyabirwa and Namizi. Settlement is generally along the tracks but is more dispersed and evenly distributed than on the west bank. The villages of Kyabirwa, Namizi and Buyala are clearly defined by pronounced valleys. On both banks settlement is generally located on higher land. Ivunamba is a sizeable trading centre in the area with a number of grocery shops, butchers, tailors, workshops, restaurants and market stalls.

4.163 The land use and settlement pattern within the individual villages directly affected by the proposed project is described below. Naminya, Buloba, Mal indi and Kikubamutwe are on the west bank and the remainder on the east bank.

Naminya

4.164 Settlement is concentrated along a few clearly defined tracks with relatively large linear plots extending eastwards to the river. There are large areas of open pastureland close to the river, otherwise the area is intensively cultivated.

Buloba

4.165 A deeply incised valley separates the villages of Naminya and Buloba. Within Buloba settlement is sparse and overall population density low. There is a network of minor tracks that are not clearly defined. Plots are generally larger than elsewhere in the area and irregularly shaped. Settlement is mainly confined to the southern part of the village immediately adjacent to the valley and in the east closer to the main road. There are large areas of open pastureland in the central part of this village with the main areas of cultivation to the south east and to the west near the river.

Malindi

4.166 Settlement is fairly evenly distributed within Malindi village. Homesteads are located along clearly defined access tracks leading directly east from the main road. Plots are relatively large extending north-south from the access tracks and east-west closer to the river. The majority of the area is intensively cultivated although there are some areas of more open land closer to the river.

Kikubamutwe

4.167 The density of population and settlement in Kikubamutwe is relatively high. The entire area is intensively settled with homesteads generally evenly distributed throughout the village. There is however a particular concentration in the central part of the village. In contrast the hilly area in the extreme north is sparsely settled. Plots are generally smaller in this village extending north-south along the main access roads, except close to the river where they are orientated east-west. There is a fairly dense network of clearly defined access tracks running north-south through the village. The steep slopes in the north are the only part of the village not cultivated.

Kyabirwa

4.168 Within Kyabirwa settlement is concentrated along the main access tracks and is also widely dispersed throughout the area. Plots are long and narrow orientated generally in an east-west direction. Population density is relatively high and the area intensively cultivated. There are few areas of open land.

Namizi

4.169 The main access track to and within Namizi village runs in an arc around the higher land some 500 metres from the river. A number of minor access tracks give access due west to the river. Settlement occurs along these tracks with little elsewhere. Plots are generally orientated east-west and vary in size markedly. The area is intensively cultivated except for some steep slopes close to the river.


FIGURE 6. Location Plan

Buyala

4.170 Only a small area in the south of Buyala will be affected by the project. This area contains very little settlement but is intensively cultivated. Access is provided from a track to the northeast along which homesteads are located. Plots extend towards the valley that separates this village from Namizi.

The Islands

4.171 There is very little permanent settlement on the islands but a number of temporary shelters used whilst farmers are cultivating the land. Access is provided by canoe from both banks. Cultivation is more intensive on Dumbbell Island and plot configurations are irregular.

Agriculture

Farming Systems

4.172 Agriculture is practised as a labour intensive, intercropping system with both cash crops and subsistence crops. Crop rotation and fallowing are no longer practised. The main cash crops grown today are coffee and some sugar cane whilst there has recently been extensive planting of vanilla. The main subsistence food crops grown are bananas, cassava, sweet potatoes, maize, beans, groundnuts, cocoyam, millet, sorghum, peas, simsim, and yams. A range of horticultural crops is grown throughout the year including tomatoes, onions, cabbages, pepper, eggplants and carrots.

4.173 Trees are planted for a wide range of reasons including to demarcate plots, provide shade and windbreaks, to provide a source of fuel and building materials, to produce fruit for sale and household consumption, to provide fodder and to improve soil moisture and fertility. The main fruit trees are jackfruit, avocado, mango, oranges and pawpaw. Other trees include muvule, mugaire, musambya, eucalyptus, musisi and lucina. There is one man-made eucalyptus forest of 0.2 ha on the western bank.

4.174 Few livestock are kept due primarily to a shortage of grazing land. Wealthier families on larger plots tend to keep more livestock. A few cattle are kept for milk although yields are low. Goats, turkeys and poultry are the main livestock kept.

Constraints to Production

4.175 The main constraints to production are as follows:

· Land form. Mechanisation is not possible due to steep slopes and the undulating nature of the land;

· Soil erosion. Steep slopes, intense rainfall and erodible soils mean that there is a high risk of soil erosion; Population pressure leads to soil degradation

· Land tenure. Plots are generally subdivided into small units according to inherited cultural norms.

· Low capital base and high costs of inputs. The purchasing power of the population is low and tools and fertilisers relatively expensive;

· Pests and plant diseases;

· Low education levels. Incorrect agronomic practices result in low yields and hence low farm incomes;

· Lack of organised marketing in the area resulting in fluctuating prices and low household incomes.

Roles of Men and Women

4.176 There is a clear subdivision of responsibilities between men and women within households. Women are responsible for food supply including planting, weeding, harvesting, collection of firewood and the preparation of meals as well as childcare, fetching water and household tasks. They generally do more work than men who are responsible for the cash income including looking after cash crops, trade and providing income from other activities. They clear the land and are responsible for building houses and looking after trees and animals. Despite the hard work, women can only use family land but do not generally own it. This has inhibited women's economic advancement by blocking avenues to credit schemes.

Farm Incomes

4.177 Agricultural holdings average about 0.8 ha (DAO information) although recent subdivision of plots, possibly as a misdirected means of increasing compensation, may have reduced this average still further.

4.178 Although a wide range of crops is grown, the range of commonly grown crops grown is small. There is a large degree of intercropping. On a typical holding where intercropping does not take place the following land use might apply:

Coffee

0.3 ha

Bananas

0.2 ha

Maize

0.1 ha

Horticulture

0.1 ha

Homestead

0.1 ha

Total

0.8 ha

4.179 In recent years the traditional subsistence crop of bananas has been partly replaced by cassava and sweet potatoes, although within the last two years leaf mosaic virus has destroyed most of the cassava crop and there has been a reversion to bananas.

4.180 Horticultural production, particularly on the east bank, has developed in recent years to supply Kampala, Jinja and Mukono. The most important crops are tomatoes, onions, cabbages and peppers but a wide range of other vegetables are also grown. Recently vanilla production has started particularly on the east bank.

4.181 Annual gross incomes for banana is about USh 6 million/ha, for coffee (robusta) USh 3.5 million/ha, maize USh 3 million/ha (assuming double cropping) and horticultural crops USh 8-10 million/ha.

4.182 In the socio-economic survey, the average annual incomes (1997) generally ranged from USh 1-2 million/ha and these appear low in relation to the annual gross incomes reported for individual crops above. The figures may have been distorted firstly by farmers exaggerating their holding sizes in order to gain more compensation and secondly reducing the size of their reported incomes since they are aware that these are not related to compensation and it may be in their interests to under-estimate them.

4.183 At a conservative estimate a gross annual income of USh 4 million/ha is achievable in this area. Production costs vary but are a maximum of 20% of gross income for most crops. Labour is not costed as it is provided by the family unit.

Current Problems and Issues

4.184 Current trends are towards the subdivision of land and intensification of production. The number of plots into which a holding was traditionally subdivided was usually proportional to the size of the holding because the largest families tended to have the largest holdings. Over the last few years this pattern has changed and subdivision is now accelerating in anticipation of greater compensation from the Bujagali power project. This matter is discussed later in this report.

4.185 In his study of Budondo sub-county, Andersen (1994) considers that the smaller holdings are not only poorer but also less environmentally sustainable. He considers that a holding of less than 0.5 ha is below the threshold to support an average family. He concludes that continued subdivision is a threat to the future sustainability of the area and that other sources of income are required to support the population of the area. These conclusions have important implications in terms of this environmental impact study.

Fisheries

Methods of Fishing

4.186 The fishery of the Victoria Nile is dominated by artisanal fishing communities which depend on it as their source of food and livelihood. The fishing craft consist of planked canoes and to a lesser degree dug outs. The boats are V-shaped modified Ssese types, paddled with oars since very few people on Victoria Nile can afford to purchase outboard motors.

4.187 The fishing gear used consist of gill nets ranging from 2½" to 8" stretch mesh size, seine nets and hooks and cast nets. Gill nets are the most commonly-used fishing gear.

4.188 Different fishing methods are used depending on the target species. Gill nets are set in shallow marginal waters or left to drift. Long lines target Lates niloticus, Protopterus spp and Clarias spp, while traps and basket fishing are exclusively used in shallow waters to catch Proteopterus, Clarias and other slow-water fish species.

Economic Importance of Fishing

4.189 Although specific data are not available for the economic importance of fisheries in the project area, data are available for the Namasagali zone of the Victoria Nile, which is approximately midway between Bujagali and Lake Kyoga (Table 4.11). From these data, the importance of fisheries in the project area can be derived, and placed into the overall economic context.

Table 4.11 - Annual Fish Catch (kg) for Namasagali zone of Victoria Nile, 1982-1983


Nile tilapia

Nile perch

Barbus

Mormyrus

Protopterus

Jan

150

775

88

48

39

Feb

859

745

132

85

-

March

940

1009

90

59

-

April

1045

1162

274

141

-

May

747

921

180

183

-

June

4987

1445

208

77

20

July

4407

2338

218

64

-

Aug

1012

2834

179

59

73

Sept

2777

4266

251

260

-

Oct

4115

3422

338

685

-

Nov

720

5237

212

547

-

Dec

129

324

54

23

16

Total (kg)

21888

24478

2224

2231

148

Percentage of catch

42.9

48.0

4.4

4.4

0.3

Source of data: Dr JS Balirwa, Fisheries Research Institute, Jinja (unpublished FIRI data)

4.190 The current market rate for fish is approximately USh 500/= per kilogram, therefore the total value of the above catch is approximately USh 25.5 million per year. It is estimated that this zone represents one-third of the total production in the Victoria Nile between Jinja and Lake Kyoga (Dr Balirwa, FIRI, pers. comm.). Therefore the value of the total catch for Victoria Nile is in the order of 25.5 x 3 = USh 76.5 million/year.

4.191 If the current fish yield from the upper 8 km of the Victoria Nile is estimated according to Marshall (1984), the resulting figure is 7.9 tonnes per annum (value USh 4 million). When extrapolated up to the whole Victoria Nile, this yield would approximate that calculated by FIRI.

4.192 Compare the above figures with revenue claimed by Bujagali residents in socio-economic survey, as follows:

Table 4.12 - Fisheries Revenue Reported by Residents of Villages in the Project Area

Village

Households selling fish

Average annual revenue per household from fishing (USh)

Total annual revenue from fishing (USh)

Namizi

47

601,170

28,254,990

Kyabirwa

43

1,549,703

66,637,229

Kikubamutwe

33

1,128,889

37,253,337

Malindi

25

1,037,619

25,940,475

Buloba

26

572,435

14,883,310

Naminya

19

810,421

14,397,999

Islands

93

1,657,872

154,182,096

Total

286

1,194,228

341,549,436

Note: there will have been some degree of 'double counting' in the above figures as the number of households equals residents plus 'land only' farmers who may also have been counted in other villages.

4.193 It can be seen that local villagers claim to be making an average of USh 1.19 million ($910) per household per annum from fisheries, or a total of USh 341 million in the six villages and islands near the project area. This is approximately five times higher than the total fisheries revenue calculated by FIRI for the entire Victoria Nile between Jinja and Lake Kyoga. It would appear that there has been considerable exaggeration in the local residents' estimates of the economic importance if fisheries.

4.194 It should be noted that the Uganda Fisheries Master Plan Study (draft, being prepared for Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries) states that average income for full-time fishermen in Uganda is c. $280 or USh 350,000 per annum. As agriculture is the main economic activity in the project area, and fisheries can only be regarded as a part-time activity, it seems likely that actual fisheries income per household is much less than this figure, and therefore considerably below the claimed figure of USh 1.19 million per household per annum.

Public Health

Availability of Health Services in the Project Area

4.195 The majority of the population of the project area is directly served by two health facilities of different capacity in terms of the quality of services each can offer to the community. On the West bank of the Nile is Wakisi Dispensary and Maternity Unit (DMU), while on the East bank of the project area is Budondo DMU. Both these rural health units refer difficult cases and emergencies to Jinja Hospital, which is a general hospital with full complement of medical surgical, laboratory, radiological and other diagnostic and treatment services.

4.196 The Wakisi and Budondo DMUs were visited as part of the assessment. They are run by their respective rural County Councils. Jinja Hospital is run by the Central Government. Walukuba Health Centre within and belonging to Jinja Municipality was also visited.

Wakisi DMU

4.197 At the project site, the Nile River marks the boundary between Mukono District and Jinja Districts. Wakisi DMU is in Mukono District, on the west bank of the river about 20 km from Jinja town. The staff complement of the Health Centre was stated as one clinical officer, one enrolled midwife, 3 nurse aides and one health assistant, whilst support staff were one cleaner and one porter. Even with this limited staff complement, the unit provides most health centre services including outpatient diagnoses and treatment, antenatal and postnatal clinics, child welfare, family planning, environmental health supervision and sanitation. The centre has a six-bedded maternity unit, which is in the process of extension to accommodate ten more beds. During the year 1997, this health centre processed a total of 9,212 outpatient cases. The health unit, although belonging to Mukono District, refers difficult cases and emergencies to Jinja District Hospital. The nearest other health facility on the west bank is Kangurumira Health Centre about 8 km further down the river.

Budondo DMU

4.198 Budondo DMU serves the project area on the east side of the river about 15 km down the river from Jinja. Staffing was given as one senior clinical officer, 2 enrolled nurses, 2 midwives, 4 nursing aids, one health assistant, one health orderly, 2 porters and one night watchman. There are 33 community-counselling workers who work closely with the health centre on HIV/AIDS issues.

4.199 The health centre provides a full complement of health services for such a centre, and probably more since it is an HIV/AIDS supporting centre. The health centre is currently caring for 86 AIDS patients. With help from the Ministry of Health and a number of NGOs, the centre organises testing and gives support in treating, counselling and feeding for AIDS patients as necessary.

4.200 Structurally, the old Budondo DMU requires repairs and renovation. However, a new building for the health centre was observed under construction about 500 m away, under supervision of the local authority. The new structure has a floor area of 400m2 and is situated on a large piece of land. This new structure has walls built of baked bricks and is roofed with corrugated iron sheets, and will have provision for 60 inpatient beds, although there seems to be no provisions for a mortuary or staff housing.

4.201 Nearest other health units are Kibibi Dispensary and Maternity Unit (20 beds) about 8 km away, and Nawangoma Dispensary and Maternity Unit (20 beds) about 20 km away.

Walukuba Health Centre

4.202 Walukuba Health Centre was visited as an example of health services given by the Jinja Municipality. It is situated in one of the populous estates within Jinja township. Other health facilities of the Jinja Municipalities were given as Mpamadde Health Centre, Town Hall Clinic and Town Yard Dispensary.

4.203 Walukuba Health Centre has a staff complement of one clinical officer, two senior nursing officers, two enrolled senior midwives, one enrolled nurse, one laboratory assistant, one principal dispenser, eight nursing aides, one porter and two gardeners.

4.204 The centre has seven maternity beds and these are well utilised. The clinical officer remarked that there are many mothers who choose the health centre for delivery rather than the hospitals. The centre has charged a user fee of USh 500 and laboratory fee of USh 1,000 since 1993.

4.205 Main disease problems are given as malaria, diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory infections and HIV/AIDS. HIV/AIDS is a problem often seen at this health centre, and the health centre itself has HIV/AIDS testing capability. However, HIV/AIDS cases are not listed in the monthly totals collection forms among other diagnoses so as to maintain the necessary confidentiality.

4.206 Once diagnosed, AIDS cases are referred to various organisations which combine Government and NGOs effort in their treatment, welfare and counselling. Some of these are AIDS Information Centre in Jinja, the AIDS Support Organisation (TASO), Jinja Hospital, and other mobile home care units.

National and Local Health Indicator Statistics

4.207 Table 4.13 below gives basic health statistics for Jinja and Mukono Districts and these are compared to Uganda National figures. The statistics the poor health status common in the developing countries of Africa. What stands out however, is the better situation in Jinja District in practically all categories of the health data, in advance of Mukono District, and both are better than the national averages.

Table 4.13 - Health Profile for Jinja District, Mukono District and Uganda, 1993

Health Category

Jinja District

Mukono District

Uganda

Population (1991) Census

289,476

824,604

16,671,705

Population Growth Rate (Percent)

2.1

2.4

2.5

Population (per sq.km. Land)

428

179

85

Fertility and mortality rates

TFR

6.2

6.8

7.5


IMR/1000

90

102

122


CMR/1000

159

169

203

Health facilities

Hospitals

2

6

95

and inpatient

Health Units

29

31

1332

Beds

Total Beds

713

870

22,714

Population within 5 km Radius of health facility (%)

94.1

44.3

49.0

Deployment of Trained Personnel

600

638

12,289

Source: Statistical Abstracts, 1998, Republic of Uganda

National Morbidity Patterns

4.208 The list below shows the top ten outpatient diagnoses for 1995 for all ages from 22 reporting districts in Uganda. The list is extracted from data reported in the Uganda Health Bulletin of September - December 1996, and which involved more than 5 million Out Patient Department (OPD) diagnoses.

Table 4.14 - Top 10 Diagnoses 1995 (excluding HIV/AIDS) - All Reporting Districts - All Ages

Diagnosis

Admissions

Percent

Malaria Acute

1431068

25.9

Lower Respiratory Infections

785114

14.2

Acute Upper Respiratory Infections

572639

10.4

Intestinal Worms

572639

10.0

Trauma (injuries, wounds, bums)

376613

6.8

Diarrhoea with Blood

335215

6.1

Skin Diseases

235157

4.3

Eye Infections

231349

4.2

Dental Caries

87487

1.6

Anaemias Other

73423

1.3

Morbidity Pattern in the Project Area

4.209 Morbidity data for 1997 were obtained from recorded outpatient diagnoses in the health institutions of the project area. In each case figures for 1997 were obtained. Disease incidence patterns were similar at all health facilities: as an indicator, the OPD statistics for Jinja District (excluding Jinja Hospital) are presented in Table 4.15.

4.210 The data as presented here show malaria as the commonest diagnosed disease in all the outpatients of the area. This is followed by acute respiratory infections (not pneumonia), intestinal worms, trauma (injuries, wounds, bums), diarrhoea (not acute), skin diseases, eye infections, genital infections and anaemia.

Table 4.15 - All Outpatient Diagnoses for Jinja District (Excluding Jinja Hospital)

Descending Order of Frequency by All Ages (January to November 1997)


Under Five Years Old

Five Years and Above

All Ages

Diagnoses

Number

% of All

Number

% of All

Number

% of All

Malaria NO

31,708

31.8%

52,911

33.4%

84,619

32.8%

AcRI-Not Pneumonia

14,892

14.9%

21,154

13.4%

36,046

14.0%

Intestinal Worms

7,876

7.9%

10,006

6.3%

17,882

6.9%

Trauma (injuries, wounds, bums)

8,130

8.1%

7,978

5.0%

16,108

6.2%

Diarrhea, Not bloody Acute

6,651

6.7%

5,565

3.5%

12,216

4.7%

Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders

4,917

4.9%

6,987

4.4%

11,904

4.6%

AcRI-Pneumonia

5,910

5.9%

5,522

3.5%

11,432

4.4%

Anaemias NO

3,958

4.0%

5,906

3.7%

9,864

3.8%

Eye Infections

3,945

4.0%

5,399

3.4%

9,344

3.6%

Genital Infections: Vaginal Discharge

36

0.0%

4,582

2.9%

4,618

1.8%

Ear Infections

1,978

2.0%

2,083

1.3%

4,061

1.6%

Genital Infections: Ulcerative

123

0.1%

3,534

2.2%

3,657

1.4%

Dental Diseases and Conditions

503.0

0.5%

2,844

1.8%

3,347

1.3%

Diarrhea, Not bloody Persistent,

1,420

1.4%

1,658

1.0%

3,078

1.2%

Genital Infections: Urethral Discharge

94

0.1%

2,565

1.6%

2,659

1.0%

Protein-energy malnutrition NO

1,846

1.8%

591

0.4%

2,437

0.9%

Measles

1,672

1.7%

690

0.4%

2,362

0.9%

Diarrhea, Dysentery

487.0

0.5%

1,714

1.1%

2,201

0.9%

Complications of Pregnancy

-

0.0%

1,324

0.8%

1,324

0.5%

Human Immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease NO

59

0.1%

954

0.6%

1,013

0.4%

Typhoid and Paratyphoid Fevers

52

0.1%

303

0.2%

355

0.1%

Tuberculosis NO

4

0.0%

204

0.1%

208

0.1%

Guinea Worm/Dracuncullasis

21

0.0%

72

0.0%

93

0.0%

Tetanus neonatorum

30

0.0%

33

0.0%

63

0.0%

Acute Flaccid Paralysis

15

0.0%

32

0.0%

47

0.0%

Meningococcal Meningitis

10

0.0%

11

0.0%

21

0.0%

Rabies

-

0.0%

9

0.0%

9

0.0%

Tetanus NO

7

0.0%

0

0.0%

7

0.0%

Cholera

-

0.0%

6

0.0%

6

0.0%

Plague

-

0.0%

0

0.0%

-

0.0%

Yellow fever

0

0.0%

0

0.0%

-

0.0%

Other OPD Diagnoses

3,486

3.5%

13,692

8.6%

17,178

6.7%

Grand Total

99,830

100%

158,329

100%

258,159

100%

Source: Office of the District Medical Officer Jinja. NO = Notifiable.

HIV/AIDS

4.211 The Ministry of Health's Three-Year Plan 1993/94 - 1995/96 in a brief statement, articulated the growing burden of HIV/AIDS on the population of Uganda. HIV/AIDS-related illness were then said to account for over 30% of all hospital admissions, and nearly 70% of the beds in the tuberculosis wards of the largest hospitals were occupied by patients who were also HIV positive. HIV/AIDS had also led to the reappearance of diseases that had virtually been under control.

4.212 It was stated that there were then (1993) 35,000 known cases of HIV/AIDS in Uganda, with the numbers growing at an alarming rate. It was estimated that if such infection growth rates continued, the total cumulative AIDS cases would increase to about 500,000 by 1995. The expenditure on medical care then, which was about 3,200 shillings (or about USD 2.70) per capita, was too low for the Ministry of Health to be able to cope with such high incidence levels.

4.213 The Ministry of Health states that the emphasis of its AIDS/STD Control Programme continues to be the prevention of transmission of STD/HIV and mitigation of the effects of STDS/HIV/AIDS on individuals families, the community and the country as a whole.

4.214 The operations of the programme in 1997/98 centred on increasing decentralization of implementation to districts and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). A community multi-sectoral approach to the HIV/AIDS problem was also reviewed to enhance specification of roles and harmonize approaches at all levels.

4.215 Progress made over the years is evidenced by: -

· Decline in trends of new HIV infection noticed at the 6 urban sentinel sites;
· The decreasing incidence of HIV in the young age group of 14 - 24 years;
· Delay in first sexual contact;
· A smaller proportion of people is reporting having sex with non-regular partner;
· Increase in availability, access and use of condoms.

National HIV/AIDS Statistics

4.216 As of 31 December 1997, a cumulative total of 53,306 AIDS cases (children and adults) had been reported to the STD/AIDS Control Programme Surveillance Unit (Table 4.16). Of the reported 53,306 AIDS cases, 49,432 (92.7%) were adults aged 12 years and above while 3,874 (7.3%) were children below 12 years. The total figure is much lower than that which had been predicted in 1993.

Table 4.16 - Cumulative Reported AIDS Cases by Year in Uganda

Year

No. of Cases

1983

17

1984

28

1985/86

910

1987

3,824

1988

7,249

1989

13,339

1990

19,955

1991

30,190

1992

36,552

1993

41,193

1994

46,120

1995

48,312

1996

51,344

1997

53,306

Source: National HIV/AIDS Surveillance Report, March 1998.

Adult Cases

4.217 Acumulative total of 49,432 adult AIDS cases is presented in the report. Of those with sex of the patient recorded, 22,445 (46.2%) were males and 26,104 (53.8%) were females. The female to male ratio has remained approximately 1:1. The overall mean age for adult AIDS cases was 32.57 years. Stratified for sex, the mean age was 34.38 years and 30.59 years for males and females respectively.

Paediatric Cases

4.218 A cumulative total of 3,874 AIDS cases aged below 12 years had been reported to the STD/AIDS Control Programme as of 31 December 1997. The overall mean age for paediatric AIDS cases was 2.18 years.

Local HIV/AIDS statistics

4.219 HIV/AIDS diagnoses for 1997 from the three local health units of the project area and Jinja District are summarised in Table 4.17. Thus shows the annual total for each data source and the percentage rating of the All Ages total.

Table 4.17 - HIV/AIDS OPD Diagnoses, Jinja District, 1997.

All Ages for Jinja District, and the two Health Units in the Project Area

Sector

HIV/AIDS OPD Diagnoses - 1997 All Ages


Number

Percentage of Sector Total

All outpatients, Jinja District (excluding Jinja Hospital) 11 months

1,013

0.39%

Jinja Hospital

1,699

2.05%

Budondo DMU

7

0.05%

Wakisi DMU

8

0.09%

Source: Outpatient Diagnoses Tables

4.220 In 1995, Jinja Hospital had 763 HIV/AIDS diagnoses being 0.6% of All Ages outpatient total diagnoses. When this figure is contrasted with 1699 diagnoses for the year 1997, the increase equates to more than 61% per year in 1995-7. Although this figure is alarming, it is not clear to what degree improvements in detection techniques have contributed to this increase.

Incidences of Tropical Diseases

Schistosomiasis

4.221 While infection due to Schistosoma haematobium occurs in the northern most parts of Mukono, intestinal infection due to S. mansoni is the only form infecting man in the general area of the project.

4.222 Although no surveys for schistosomiasis have been carried out in the immediate area of the Bujagali project, S. mansoni infection rates of about 60% were found during a survey along the Lake shore in Mukono District (Mr Sempa, Divisional Vector Control Officer, Mukono, pers. comm.), and of about 50% in patients at Buloba Hospital. The true prevalence could only be determined by a systematic survey. Infections are treated with praziquantel, which is also effective against intestinal worms.

Malaria

4.223 In the country as a whole, malaria is responsible for about 30% of all hospital attendances and is listed first in the top ten causes of mortality in all age groups under 16 years and is second only to HIV/AIDS as a cause of death in those over 16 (Tables 4.18 and 4.19).

Table 4.18 - Number of Inpatient Admissions Due to Malaria, 1992

Age less than 1 year

4918

Age 1 year

3283

Age 2-4 years

3690

Age 5-15 years

2511

Age 16 years and over

6132

Source: Uganda Medical Bulletin 1(2): 1994. Data from 30 hospitals

Table 4.19 - Deaths Due to Malaria as a Percentage of all Deaths Due to the Top Ten Diseases, 1992

Age less than 1 year

19%

Age 1 year

19.5%

Age 2-4 years

29.5%

Age 5-15 years

26.5%

Age 16 years and over

10.4%

Source: Uganda Medical Bulletin 1(2): 1994. Data from 30 hospitals

4.224 It is known that on average an unprotected person, living in an area where malaria is hyperendemic, may receive several infective bites per night. These are sufficient to maintain a high level of immunity and resistance to disease in those living in rural areas and who have been regularly exposed since birth.

4.225 The potential for transmission from one non-immune person to other non-immunes is very considerable - over 1500 people have been known to become infected from a single case in this way.

4.226 In Jinja District, out patient diagnoses for malaria in 1997 were 34,335 for under 5's, and 56,121 for over 5's, representing approximately 32% of all outpatient diagnoses. Corresponding figures for Mukono District for 1997 were 37,4771 for under 5's, and 51,637 for over 5's, representing approximately 27% and 23% of outpatient diagnoses respectively (data from Health Planning Unit, Ministry of Health).

4.227 Because malaria is hyperendemic among the local population, the level of immunity is correspondingly high. The principal risk of serious consequences of infection therefore lies with expatriates and any workers coming from non-malarious areas. Studies on chloroquine resistance are being carried out at Walukuba Health centre, 2 km west of Jinja.

Malaria Control

4.228 Due to financial constraints, residual insecticides for house spraying are in short supply. Boarding schools are treated routinely with permethrin - ideally the schools should take responsibility but are unable to do so for financial reasons. People are willing to use bed nets (of cotton/nylon mixture) and these can be treated with permethrin to control mosquitos. Nets cost USh 8-10,000 each and this is too expensive for local people to afford. Bed nets require re-treatment after about six months. Icon has a residual effect for about twelve months but it has an unpleasant odour which makes its use unpopular (Mr Sempa, District Vector Control Officer, Mukono; pers. comm.). General advice includes screening houses against mosquitos and closing windows before dark.

Onchocerciasis (River Blindness)

4.229 River blindness is common in sixteen districts in western Uganda and in Mbale. The National Onchocerciasis Control Programme was set up by the Ministry of Health in 1996 and formulated a national plan for the control of the infection within 15-20 years (Mutabazi & Duke, 1998). The drug ivermectin (Mectizan®, Merck & Co., Inc.) is being distributed through the community to 'at risk' populations. While it is unlikely that onchocerciasis will re-establish in the Bujagali area, it will be as well to be aware of the programme.

Incidence of Onchocerciasis (River Blindness) in the Project Area

4.230 Surveys of the local population in about 1991 revealed only two or three cases of river blindness, all imported from other areas, and none of which were in young people. Skin snips were taken but no positives found, no nodules were found and no bites were reported. Surveys conducted by Dr A. Onapa (Senior Entomologist, Vector Control Division, MoH) and Mr Sempa (Divisional Vector Control Officer, Mukono) found no Simulium damnosum flies. Furthermore, no tourists visiting the area reported bites (bites are painful and easily noticed). It was therefore concluded that Simulium damnosum is no longer present in the area and onchocerciasis is no longer being transmitted (Ndyomugyenyi, 1998; and personal communications from Dr Onapa and Mr Sempa).

Incidence of Trypanosomiasis (Sleeping Sickness) in the Project Area

4.231 In former times there have been a number of serious outbreaks of human trypanosomiasis in the Busoga region. The principal vector was Glossina fuscipes. Flies were found to breed extensively around villages and in areas where the plant Lantana camara is prolific. An active control programme was instituted about ten years ago, which involved active case finding and passive surveillance, combined with fly control, initially by aerial spraying along the Nile and use of pyramidal traps treated with deltamethrin insecticide (Glossinex) at 300 mg active ingredient per trap. Traps were distributed at an average of 10 traps per km2 (Dr A. Onapa, and Mr W. Omase, District Veterinary Control Officer, Jinja, pers. comm.).

4.232 Infections were reduced by 96% over four years and the point has now been reached where only nine or ten new cases of sleeping sickness occur in the year in a population of about 300,000 and tsetse flies are no longer a problem. Traps are still used, essentially to monitor the occurrence of flies (including other related blood-sucking species).

Animal Trypanosomiasis

4.233 Animal trypanosomiasis is of importance in the area (Dr Odil, Acting District Veterinary Officer, Jinja). Active and passive surveillance is employed routinely. Positive cases are treated with dimazine aceturate to clear parasites and animals are also protected by routine treatment with Samorin® (May and Baker). Infections in cattle and goats were originally high but are now down to about 5% in cattle and 3% in goats.

Rift Valley Fever

4.234 A surveillance operation was set up in the Mbale area following the Rift Valley Fever outbreak along the Tana River in Kenya. Particular attention was given to the area along the Uganda-Kenya border and to population movements. On the Uganda side of the border, 390 mosquitos have been collected and blood samples taken from 163 people, 270 goats, 37 sheep and 157 cattle. On the Kenyan side of the border, 390 mosquitos were collected and blood samples taken from 111 people, 78 goats, 8 sheep and 18 cattle. These have been analysed by CDC Atlanta. There have been no positive reports (Dr B. Biryahwaho, Virologist, Uganda Virus Research Institute, and Dr A. Onapa, Senior Entomologist, Vector Control Division, MoH, pers. comm.).

Other Viral Diseases

4.235 There has been no record of haemorrhagic fever in Uganda, even during the outbreak of the disease in Zaire. Although there have been no detailed studies on zoonoses, surveillance measures have given no indication of problems.

Cultural and Historic Sites

Bujagali Shrines

4.236 Karatunga (1997) studied the importance of the east bank Bujagali shrines. He stated that the Bujagali area derives its cultural significance from a hereditary clan leader called Baise Waguma of the Ntembe clan who had his headquarters at the present tourist site. This site housed offices of the most powerful spiritual governors of the clan. Consequently all the hereditary clan leaders came to be known as Bujagali.

4.237 Since the Ntembe clan was the most powerful clan in Jinja, its headquarters gained more recognition than that of other clans. What makes the area even more popular is the myth that the Bujagali have supernatural powers, thus enabling them to cross the rapids at Bujagali using a bark cloth from a fig tree. Due to the existence of the rapids and the proximity to the source of the Nile, the area has become a popular place for tourists. The influx of tourists has added popularity to the Bujagali whom the local people believed had supernatural powers to bring white people to the area.

Archaeology

4.238 Karatunga (1997) concluded that apart from being an ancestral burial ground for the Ntembe clan, there is little cultural/historical significance at the site. This is borne out by records held by Uganda Museum, Kampala (Magawa, n.d.) which indicate that the nearest historical sites are a modern (post-1862) site at Urondaganyi, on the Nile approximately 20 km downstream of Bujagali, and an early iron age site located near the railway line 8 km northeast of Jinja. However, it should be noted that the proximity of the site to water, plant and fish resources means that it is likely to have been inhabited for thousands of years before the present. Therefore it is possible that archaeological remains will be unearthed during excavation.

EXISTING TRANSPORT SYSTEM

Roads

4.239 The existing road system within the project area is shown schematically in Figure 7. The main trunk road links Kampala with Nairobi, crossing the Victoria Nile via the Owen Falls Dam and passing just north of Jinja. Two roads from which site access is to be achieved run parallel to Victoria Nile on both banks; The eastern bank road links Jinja with Kamuli, passing through Ivunamba. The western bank road links Jinja with Kayunga via Njeru and Kikubamutwe. Settlements straddle these roads at intermittent intervals.

4.240 The two "bank" roads and the Kampala to Nairobi road intersect at two major junctions; at Njeru and at Jinja. The Jinja intersection is a 4 arm roundabout, whilst the intersection at Njeru is a large gyratory on which priority rules apply; the Kampala to Nairobi route being the major arm. Access to the Kampala to Nairobi trunk road can also be achieved at a large roundabout some 2km to the east of the Jinja Roundabout. This junction also serves the rail terminal and depots at Jinja.

4.241 The Njeru gyratory consists of entry (and exit) arms and sections traversed within the junction itself (see Figure 2, Appendix C for sketch). Entry to and exit from the junction and on trafficked sections within it are controlled by "priority" rule. A public transport stop/taxi rank is situated within the junction. Other vehicles also park in its vicinity.

4.242 The other two major junctions are standard roundabouts.

4.243 There are several locations on both bank roads from which access to nearby villages and settlements are achieved. The east bank road also serves the local air strip and the site of the Owen Falls Extension Works. It is proposed that access to the site is achieved at Kikubamutwe (west bank) and Ivunamba (east bank).

Existing Road and Traffic Conditions

4.244 The existing road conditions and traffic flow and speed estimates on the "primary" road network are contained in Table 4.20, which contains independent 12 hour traffic data collected at Buwenda during 1998- The average vehicle composition around the network is contained in Table 4.21.

4.245 All surrounding roads are of single carriageway standard. With the exception of the Jinja to Ivunamba (east bank) road, the road system has tarmac surfaces of moderate to good quality. With regards to the Jinja to Ivunamba road, the Jinja to Buwenda section has a tarmac surface but it is now weathered and has deteriorated to a poor quality surface.

4.246 Footways ranging from 1m to 2m have been formed on grass verges alongside most roads. Due to constant use, the grass surfaces have mostly been eroded exposing the underlying soil strata. Pedestrians also frequently use the road pavement. Usage of the pavement (by pedestrians) is likely to increase during the wet season when footway surfaces convert to mud.

4.247 There are significant levels of pedal cycle use, particularly on the Jinja - Ivunamba road (nearly 70% pedal cycles). Other traffic are mostly public transport vehicles and goods vehicles. The levels of personal car usage is relatively small. The Kampala to Nairobi road is the most trafficked with a high proportion of goods vehicles, public transport vehicles and pedal cycles.

4.248 Traffic flow to and from Jinja were observed as being tidal. The majority of local traffic (from places such as Ivunamba and Kikubamutwe) during the morning is inbound (into Jinja) and vice-versa during the evening.

4.249 The average 12 hour count at Buwenda (Table 4.20) is 1460 vehicles. A comparison with morning and peak period counts presented in Table 4.20 suggests a "total peak period to 12 hour count" conversion factor of 3.65. This factor has been used in estimating existing all day 12 hour traffic around the system. Traffic generated by ongoing extension works at Owen Falls is included in the figures provided in Table 4.20 and 4.21. It is assumed that these traffic constitute 10% of existing traffic movements. The "base" traffic on the surrounding network is therefore as presented in Figure 1 of Appendix C.

4.250 Road markings and street lighting are absent on most roads and traffic junctions and public transport vehicles stationed on the carriageway whilst passengers board and alight are known to pose accident risks.


Figure 7 - Schematic Diagram of the Road Network Around the Project Site

Table 4.20 - Existing Road and Traffic Conditions

Road/Junction

Section (Approx. Length, Km)

Road Condition1

Traffic



Width (m) Pavement/Footway (estimated Capacity)5

Pavement Surface

Footway Surface

Quality3

AM Peak2 Period -2hrs (veh/pcu)

PM Peak2 Period -2hrs (veh/pcu)

Average Speed (kph)

Kampala - Nairobi

Njeru - Jinja (2km)

10/1-1½
(15000)

tarmac

grass/soil

Good

12004

12004

30


Jinja RO - Terminal
RO (2km)

10/1-1½
(15000)

tarmac

grass/soil

Good

4004

4004

30

Jinja - Ivunamba

Jinja Town Centre to
"Jinja RO" (2½ km)

10/1-1½
(15000)

tarmac

grass/soil

Good

5004

5004



Jinja RO - Buwenda
(4½ km)

5-8/1-1½
(7-10000)

tarmac

grass/soil

Poor

2004

2004

60


Buwenda - Ivunamba
(2km)

5-8/1-1½
(7-10000)

murram

grass

Moderate

199/111

197/110

60

Jinja to Kikubamutwe

Jinja - Njeru RO
(2km)

10/1-1½
(15000)

tarmac

grass

Good



80


Njeru - Kikubamutwe
Ivunamba (9km)

6-8/1 -1½
(8-10000)


grass

Good

114/117

113/119

80

Jinja Roundabout



tarmac

grass

Good

2078/2017

2139/2192


Jinja Terminal RO



tarmac

grass

Good

?



Njeru Gyratory



tarmac

grass

Good

1315/1349

1379/1639


Estimates based on 'total' junction counts at Jinja Roundabout, Njeru, Ivunamba and Kikubamutwe. Includes "Owen Extension Works" traffic, nominally taken as 10% of all traffic. PCU = passenger car unit

1 visual assessment only.
2 am peak period: 0730 - 0930; pm peak period: 1700-1900
3 good - no potholes; moderate - few potholes; poor - significant number of potholes
4 estimates taken from roundabout survey: vehicles only.
5 estimated 2-way capacity in veh/12 hr day: all roads are of single-carriageway standard.

Table 4.21 - Existing Vehicle Composition

Road

%
Cars

%
Motor-Cycles

%
Buses/Taxi (Public Transport)

%
Pedal Cycles

%
HGV

Kampala- Nairobi

19

4

26

35

17

Jinja- Ivunamba

7

7

14

69

4

Jinja- Kikubamutwe

9

6

31

40

13

Rail

4.251 There is a single rail track between Jinja and Kampala extending eastwards to Kenya. There are no passenger services. Rail services cater only for freight movements. Estimates of freight traffic between 1994 and 1996 are contained in Appendix C and they indicate a high volume of freight traffic. It is reasonable to expect that some delivery of materials and equipment to Jinja would be partly undertaken by rail.

Air

4.252 An operational air strip is located adjacent to the Jinja to Ivunamba road. This is mainly used by a local flying club and occasionally by private light aircraft.

Tourism and Leisure

White Water Rafting Operations: General

4.253 The Government of Uganda, via the Uganda Tourist Board, has provided active assistance and support for the development and operation of white water rafting (WWR) in Uganda. The current Government policy is one of product and market diversification, in which eco-tourism is prioritised (including WWR). Interviews with the Minister of Tourism, Trade and Industry (Rt. Hon. Brig. Moses Ali, Second Deputy Prime Minister) and the current Regional District Commissioner (Mr Simon Mulongo) indicated that the Province of Jinja and Government of Uganda fully appreciate the value and positive impacts of WWR, but recognise the overriding priority need for increased power generation.

4.254 Two companies currently operate WWR excursions at Bujagali: Adrift and Nile River Explorers. The rapids on which Adrift base their one-day WWR excursions, and the class assigned to each set of rapids is outlined in Table 4.22. The one-day excursions offered by NRE use most of the same rapids as those used by Adrift. Rapid classes are based on the degree of danger and 'thrill' on a scale of 1 to 6, with class 6 being defined as unsafe for commercial rafting operations. Locations of the sets of rapids are shown on Figure 8.

Table 4.20 - Rapids Used by Adrift (U) Ltd for One-Day Rafting Excursions

No. (see Figure 5)

Name

Class

1

Donald

3

2

Bujagali

4-5*

3

Easy Rider

3-4*

4

Total Gunga

5

5

Sibling Rivalry

2

6

Big Brother

4

7

"Whee!" rapids

2

8

Overtime

5

9

Retrospect

4-5*

10

Babuga Falls

4

11

The Bad Place

5

12

The Ugly Sisters

5

* depending on river flow

Source: M Barnett, Adrift (U) Ltd. Gradings are likely to differ from those of WB.

4.255 Rapid 12 (The Ugly Sisters) are not normally used by Adrift, but present an alternative course to rapids 5 and 6, and could potentially be used during the construction of the embankment if the channel to the west of Dumbbell Island remains open for some of the construction period.

4.256 As the GoU has been investigating the increased hydropower potential of the Nile for a number of years, the WWR companies must be deemed to have been aware of this risk before investing. The decision to invest, the terms and time frame of such investments, must be deemed to have been a balanced commercial decision by the individual companies. Figures provided by the companies indicate that their initial investments have already been fully recovered.

4.257 Interviews suggest that many white water rafters are primarily adventure and overland tourists, visiting Uganda to view gorillas at the Bwindi Impenetrable Forest and other game parks. In such cases, Jinja represents a convenient stopping point for tours, where WWR is available as an optional activity. Adrift and Nile River Explorers suggest, however, that WWR is the primary reason for visiting Uganda. In the absence of definitive surveys, these conflicting views cannot be fully reconciled, although the former view would appear more probable.

Capacity Analysis: Projections of WWR Potential

4.258 Adrift states in its formal documentation that it currently operates rafting trips on the Bujagali Falls section of the river, 5-6 times a week. Current maximum capacity is stated as 20,440 per year (7 rafts/departures per day x 8 customers = 56 customers per day x 365 days per year = 20,440 customers per annum). Conversely, recent interviews with Adrift suggest that, for operational reasons (back-up rafts, spacing of rafts, group size etc.), a maximum operation of only 3 departures per day is truly practicable. This would result in a maximum realisable capacity of 8,760 customers per annum. During the 12 months to end July 1998 the actual carryings are reported as 4,857.

4.259 Above estimates of growth do not appear to take full account of Nile River Explorer's current and potential market share and competitive position (currently under-cutting the Adrift price at US$65 per person). It is as yet uncertain whether the Uganda market situation will, over the medium and long term, 'bear' Adrift's recent price increase from US$65 to US$95 and whether the recent increase in demand is sustainable. Figures for July 1998 would appear to indicate that the market has so far accepted Adrift's price increase. In the longer term, visitors may switch to Nile River Explorers, with their lower price of US$65. Since tourists generally purchase the WWR trips as 'optional' excursions, the purchase is likely to be both price-sensitive and almost entirely discretionary.

Quantification of Existing Demand - WWR Market in Uganda

4.260 It is estimated that the total number of white water rafters in Uganda is currently in the range 7000-8000 per annum, which comprises the combined clients of Adrift and Nile River Explorers. The total gross direct value of WWR is therefore in the range US$450-650,000 (at 1996/97 prices), likely to rise to the range US$600-650,000 (at 1997/98 prices). The latter figure does not include the possible impact of the Camel White Water Challenge in 1999. No statistics appear to exist to profile white water rafters, in terms of their nationality, age, prime reason for visit, socio-economic grouping, type of accommodation used, backpacker/mainstream tourist etc. Thus, Bujagali cannot be meaningfully or accurately positioned in terms of international market segments (other than as white water rafters) or for detailed comparative/global market share analysis.

4.261 The historic growth in WWR numbers experienced to date may not necessarily continue in the future. Visitor numbers to Uganda are influenced by many factors including, inter alia, source market characteristics, the prevailing destination image (political stability, tourist security, economic conditions in source markets and current trends, currency values in generating markets, air travel and other access costs etc.). Consequently, growth is not necessarily linear or organic and numbers can fall as well as rise.


Figure 8. Bujagali Hydropower Project: Rapids used for white-water rafting

Camel White Water Challenge

4.262 Interviews and publicity suggest that the Camel White Water Challenge international WWR championship, may be held in Uganda in mid-1999. It is purported that the championship will be sponsored by the RJ Reynolds tobacco company, which manufacturers Camel cigarettes. Competitors from an estimated 15 countries will participate. The event has previously been held in Zimbabwe on the Zambezi River. The event could potentially attract large numbers of white water rafters and supporters, constituting a major tourism draw and event for Uganda in 1999. The currently proposed timing of the Bujagali embankment construction should not necessarily interfere with this event.

4.263 In the absence of specific and high quality historic data and trends from Zimbabwe and Zambia, it is not possible at this time to accurately estimate the potential number of additional white water rafters likely to be generated during the time frame of the event. A detailed analysis of carryings and other data, with supporting programme of interviews, would be required in Zimbabwe in order to make a comprehensive evaluation of the characteristics and market potential of this event. Best informed estimates of the 'Challenge' in Zimbabwe are of 20,000 attendees but the status of the event remains unclear at the time of writing.

Alternative WWR Locations in Uganda

4.264 Adrift has had a commercial multi-day operation planned for Murchison Falls since it was first successfully descended by Adrift in 1996. The high rainfall at the end of 1997 led to the cancellation/postponement of the first planned departures, as river levels were too high to be run safely. River levels had not dropped sufficiently to operate at their next planned departure dates in June, July and August 1998, and Adrift has cancelled its planned departures at end 1998.

4.265 It is anticipated that a further exploratory trip will be required before commercial trips can commence. It is likely that the river will have changed significantly over recent months. Rafting cannot be actively encouraged in the Murchison area except for clients who wish to book an 'extreme adventure'. Consequently, Adrift will not accept novice white water rafters for such expeditions which incur a high degree of difficulty.

4.266 Rapids in Murchison National Park are consistently 'extreme grade 5'. There is an added and significant danger from aggressive, large, Nile crocodiles as well as a significant number of hippopotami in this section of the river. Nile River Explorers attempted the first descent of the Murchison section (before Adrift) but were forced to abandon the attempt when they suffered a crocodile attack. All other rivers in Uganda are reported to run the serious risk of crocodile and hippopotamus attacks.

4.267 Adrift considers that WWR ventures elsewhere in Uganda than Bujagali, would not under current circumstances be commercially viable. Adrift farther considers it likely that the planned Murchison trips may not proceed due to the many variables associated, in consideration also of the short season (a few months a year) when departures might be considered.

Adrift (Uganda) Ltd Operations

4.268 Adrift commenced its WWR operations in July 1996. In the 1997 calendar year the company reported 3,315 carryings. During the 12 months to end July 1998 this figure is reported as 4,717 (Table 4.23)

Table 4.21 - WWR Customer Numbers Reported by Adrift (U) Ltd

Month

1996

1997

1998

January

-

159

269

February

-

189

409

March

-

179

294

April

-

135

324

May

-

166

395

June

-

208

484

July

-

338

601

August

55

454

-

September

68

380

-

October

45

432

-

November

64

262

-

December

258

413

-

Total

490

3315

2776

Total 1996-1998



6581

Total Year to July 1998



4717

Source: Adrift (U) Ltd

Investment and Turnover

4.269 Adrift, in formal documents provided, estimates their annual (first year) turnover in the order of US$250,000. After allowing for incremental tourist expenditure on accommodation, meals, transport and food, this figure is estimated to increase to in the vicinity of USS$300,000. Adrift estimates their current investment at around US$70,000 in set-up costs, covering equipment, vehicles, infrastructure and promotion. Adrift currently maintains 7 boats (estimated cost US$3,500 each). A total of 8 expatriate guides and up to 50 locals (overall) were reported by Adrift to be involved in operations.

4.270 Updated information from Adrift indicates that the last week of July 1998 achieved the highest number of passengers (180) since operations began. This correlates with the previous year's high season. The 1998 figure for July (601 clients) indicate significant growth over 1997 and the highest month to date. Adrift generates additional revenue from the sale of T-shirts and videos.

Adrift Zimbabwe

4.271 The Adrift operation in Zimbabwe is small in comparison with other companies that operate white water rafting there. Adrift has operated a multi-day operation since 1992 and run approximately 15 eight day trips between August and December each year, with a maximum of 18 people per trip. Adrift has continuously held a one day permit (needed to operate multi-day trips) but this has been for Zambia and not Zimbabwe.

4.272 In 1997 Adrift obtained a one day permit to run 'one and two day' trips to complement the multi-day trips. Adrift reports that it does not foresee it becoming an operator of the size and scale of Shearwater (the market leader). Adrift currently has three boats which implies a maximum of 27 people carryings per day. These multi-day trips have been operated since May and are reported to have been highly successful. Adrift has recently opened a new office at Victoria Falls, which appears to be having a positive effect on business.

Nile River Explorers Ltd (NRE) Operations

4.273 Nile River Explorers was not able to provide comprehensive statistics on customer numbers and expenditure. Interviews with Mr John Dahl (Director) estimated carryings as being perhaps 15-20% less than Adrift. NRE currently operates three boats and one additional boat is on order. Seven expatriates are employed, and two full time locals operate safety kayaks. Ugandans are paid US$10 per trip. NRE operates 25 days per month, reporting their best month as May 1998 with 250 carryings. Trips operate from the base of Owen Falls to near Kyabirwa - an 18-km stretch. Charges are US$65 for one day rafting trips (as against US$95 charged by Adrift).

4.274 NRE operates its own hostel in Jinja - the 'Explorers Backpackers Hostel'. Bed charges are US$5 per person per night and can accommodate up to 60 guests. NRE plans to move its hostel and establish a Bush Camp on the western bank of the River Nile, north of Njeru, from where trips currently depart.

4.275 NRE report that they consider their major competition to be the Zambezi River, and not Adrift. The company successfully operates a sunset cruise on Lake Victoria. Fishing trips are not considered viable due to the lack of fish in the northern part of Lake Victoria and entrance to the River Nile.

4.276 NRE consider that one of Bujagali's major sales attributes is its location close to the main Nairobi-Bwindi road, which permits easy stopovers.

WWR Companies Local/Expatriate Employees

4.277 Adrift estimates that some 50 local employees are involved in their operations. These include, inter alia:

· (trainee) guides and safety kayak personnel;
· truck drivers (transfers to river embarkation site);
· porters: loaders, packers for equipment;
· catering assistants;
· office assistants.

4.278 NRE offer similar job opportunities and positions for local employees. Thus, in total, some 80+ direct local jobs for both companies have been created, although the majority of these are part time. Informal interviews with local staff indicate that staff are in fact employed on a freelance 'as needed' basis on terms of between US$5-10 per day. These rates of pay appear to be considered good to excellent by locals.

4.279 Adrift and Nile River Explorers employ some 14 expatriates. In the event of the Bujagali project progressing, these expatriates may well be reassigned to other WWR destinations world-wide. Local truck drivers are employed on a sub-contract, 'jobbing' basis. As such, truck owners will need to seek alternative customers for their services.

Bujagali Falls Picnic Site

4.280 The site is operated by Mr Raj Shah and is located on the east bank of the Nile overlooking Bujagali Falls. It comprises an area high above the Nile River valley as well as gentle sloping areas along the water's edge. The site enjoys no additional attributes except its location overlooking Bujagali Falls.

4.281 Information regarding the site was obtained by visits to the site and from amalgamated interviews. The land is understood to be owned by the Ministry of Defence, left for convenience under the control of the Jinja Municipality. It is understood that the Bujagali riverbank site is under an annual local authority lease to Mr Shah. Rent is purported (unsubstantiated) to be US$2,000 per month. The lease was due to expire in mid September 1998 at which time other parties would be able to tender for the lease. It is possible that Adrift may itself tender for the new lease.

4.282 The anticipated rise in water level by the formation of Bujagali Lake will potentially add to the attractiveness of the site as a recreation area.

4.283 It is estimated that the site attracts some 350 admissions during the week and 350 admissions over each weekend, with national holidays attracting greater numbers. Consequently, the site attracts a total in the region of 35-40,000 admissions per annum. Admission rates are USh 1,000 per person for locals and US$1 for foreign tourists. By calculation, total admission revenues would be in the range US$35-40,000. It is estimated that some 10 local staff work at the site. Additional revenues are generated by sale of drinks and other activities.

4.284 The total revenue from the site may thus be estimated at US$60-70,000. Total costs may be of the order of US$30,000, leaving a gross benefit/profit of US$30-40,000 per annum.

4.285 Based on figures provided by Adrift, completion of the Bujagali project and resultant cessation of WWR activities would lead to a loss of current revenue to the site of the order of US$25,000 per annum.

4.286 Overland tour operators currently use the Bujagali Falls site as a campsite, and benefit from commissions paid to them by WWR companies. Such companies are generally European, North America and Australasian based and operate adventure and overland tours, in which WWR is only one component of the itinerary. Frequently, these are 'East Africa tours' including Kenya and other countries. WWR is normally sold as an optional excursion/activity and the tour operators command 10% commission from the WWR companies.

MADA Hotel Construction

4.287 A new hotel construction is being undertaken by TRMP/MADA Holdings (U) Ltd, a Kenya and Jinja based construction, development and accommodation operating group. The hotel site is close to Bujagali, set high on the east bank, with views to Owen Falls to the south and to the north over open countryside.

4.288 Plots were originally acquired and consolidated in 1995. The construction phase was well advanced at the end of July 1998. Roofing of duplex room units, the conference hall and public parts were planned for completion during August 1998. Construction commenced in September 1997. A total of 92 rooms in 46 units were under construction at end July 1998. Some 26 units with 52 rooms are planned to be available for the opening of the hotel in December 1998. Rooms are constructed in villa style buildings, each containing two rooms. Inspection of the site and buildings indicated that construction quality should be high. The company reports that the total development cost is estimated at US$5.5-6 million.

4.289 An average build cost per room (inclusive of public areas and ancillary construction costs) of some US$65,000 results. A 'rack rate' (normal, non-discounted, full tariff, room rate) of US$65-70 is envisaged. High annual rates of occupancy will be required in order to generate a sufficient return on investment. The relatively high room rate (in comparison with Jinja and many Kampala Hotels) reflects the high quality of build, fixtures and fittings. The company has determined that a high quality product, with attractive swimming pool and conference areas, will justify the relatively high room rate.

Kyabirwa Nature Resort

4.290 The site is close to Bujagali, set high above the Nile River valley on the east bank, with views to Bujagali Falls to the south and to the north over open countryside. The compact site is mainly set atop a hill, on a small plateau, well above the river below. The site was selected by the developer in the full knowledge of the intended Bujagali Project.

4.291 The development will be largely unaffected by the Bujagali project. The anticipated rise in water level by the formation of Bujagali Lake will flood the lower parts of the steep sloping ground which runs down to the river below. This will potentially add to the attractiveness of the site by improving access to the water.

4.292 Interviews with Mr John Hunwick (Managing Director of the Backpackers Hostel and Campsite in Kampala) indicated that, under a joint stock company, he acquired the parcels of land making up the site during 1997/98, in order to develop it for tourism/leisure and recreation activities. Inspection of the site indicated that no development of the site had taken place by end July 1998. Mr Hunwick suggested that work on the site was to commence in September 1998. The site is to be developed with water slides, swimming facilities, camping, boating and walks, for local people and overland tourists. Once the Bujagali hydropower project is completed, water slides would be simply relocated to higher ground.

4.293 Mr Hunwick anticipates that entrance charges will be similar to current charges at Bujagali Site operated by Mr Shah: USh 1,000 per person for locals; US$1 per person for foreign visitors. He further anticipates that total visits will be in the range 50-100,000 per annum, resulting in income in the range US$50-100,000. Improved facilities are intended to attract expatriates and overlanders. A few overnight hostel-style rooms may be made available, at a maximum rate of US$10 per person per night (approximately double prevailing hostel rates).

Kalagala and Itanda

4.294 The riverside promontory overlooking Kalagala Falls has been proposed as an alternative site for a hydroelectric power project or, alternatively, for development of an hotel. Access to the site is from the main Jinja-Kampala highway and route north Njeru-Kangulumira. Alternative access from Kampala is via the Mukono-Kayunga road north and Kayunga-Njeru road south. The site is understood to be allocated by local authority lease (to Mr Mayor Madhvani). The attractive site is approximately 15 km downstream from Bujagali, set high above the Nile River valley, with panoramic views of Kalagala Falls and across the river towards Itanga. The site would be unaffected by the Bujagali project.

4.295 Similar to Kalagala, the Itanda site is understood to be allocated by local authority lease (to Mr Mayor Madhvani). The site would be unaffected by the Bujagali project. The Nile River flows between Itanda and Kalagala and therefore no direct assess to/from Kalagala is available. Access to Itanda is from the road on the eastern side of the Nile.

4.296 Visually, Kalagala Falls is more attractive and impressive than Bujagali Falls. The panorama looking upstream and the setting of Kalagala Falls offer potential for an internationally appealing and 'environmentally sensitive' development. This might include themed accommodation, rope bridges to the midstream island with its intact natural riverine forest and wildlife and river trips below the falls. Current construction of a new hotel at Bujagali and the limits of market demand, render it unlikely that operation of an hotel at Kalagala would be financially viable at the present time.

Analysis of Tourist Arrivals in Uganda

National Level Tourist Arrivals Statistics

4.297 National level tourist arrivals statistics are of very limited value to the specific assessment of tourism activity in Bujagali and Jinja. Since both arrivals and revenues (Bank of Uganda) figures are largely based on estimates (and incomplete data), figures must be considered unreliable and at best 'orders of magnitude'.

4.298 Statistics are generally based on arrivals and departures at Entebbe International Airport. As such, figures exclude overland tourists. WWR tourists generally arrive overland and are not included in the majority of analyses of tourist arrivals.

4.299 The figures in Table 4.24 are for tourist arrivals at Entebbe International Airport, Busia and Malaba. Figures were extracted from embarkation and disembarkation cards for 1983-1994, whilst 1995 and 1996 are estimates only. Tourist receipts are estimates based on official Bank of Uganda statistics.

International Funding Agency Reports (Statistics)

4.300 Available international funding agency reports do not provide any additional or meaningful analysis of tourist arrivals and projections.

4.301 The 1993 Integrated Tourism Master Plan (UNDP/WTO UGA91/010) by Hoff & Overgaard a/s Planning Consultants stated tourism in Uganda to be 'virtually nonexistent'. Only 14.5 per cent (9,900) of the 68,000 tourist arrivals in 1991 were deemed holiday tourists. Visitor projections optimistically assumed some 33,000 holiday tourists by 1997. In fact, interviews with the Uganda Tourist Board (UTB) suggest that holiday tourist numbers have not increased and may actually have fallen.

Table 4.22 - Tourist Arrivals at Entebbe International Airport, 1983-1997

Year

Tourist Arrivals

Tourism Receipts US$ (million)

1983

12,786

1.3

1984

21,378

1.4

1985

27,039

5.3

1986

53,594

5.0

1987

50,942

4.2

1988

42,783

5.3

1989

53,240

8.7

1990

54,672

26.8

1991

66,750

32.7

1992

92,736

45.4

1993

111,393

54.6

1994

147,308

72.2

1995

193,000

94.6

1996

*252,830

*123.9

1997

*220,000

*107.8

* Projections

Source: Uganda Tourist Board/MOF, MTWA, and Bank of Uganda

4.302 In 1996, the World Bank funded the Tourism Promotion, Development and Regulation [enabling framework for national tourism development programme] - PAMSU Project B Final Report by Environmental Development Consultants Ltd Ireland in association with CHL Consulting Ireland, for the Ministry of Tourism, Wildlife & Antiquities. The report provided little additional baseline tourism data to that in the ITMP report.

Surrogate 'Indicator' Statistics (National Parks, WWR)

4.303 Based purely on National Parks statistics (notably, the Queen Elizabeth National Park), UTB considers that actual, current number of 'holiday tourists' to Uganda may be around 5,000 per annum. Statistics and estimates from WWR companies indicate that they alone carry a total of the order of 8,000+ per annum. Assuming that not all white water rafters visit national parks, a working estimate in the range of 10,000-15,000 foreign tourists per annum would appear to be more reasonable.