How disaster effects can vary from one type of hazard to another

Hazards vary considerably in the scale of their impact, the geographical scope and the duration of effects. Consider briefly the range of hazards prevalent in your area: these may include riverine or coastal flooding, landslides, tropical storms, earthquakes, drought, urban fires, civil conflict, or technological and industrial hazards. Each of these has a very different potential for disruption, depending on the intensity of the disaster impact, and its geographic relation to populations, economic assets, and the type of economic activity in progress (figure 2).

FIGURE 2

ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY RECENT NATURAL DISASTERS OF GEOLOGICAL ORIGIN IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

(in millions of 1987 US dollars)^a

	EARTHQUAKES		HURRICANES	FLOODS/ DROUGHTS
	Mexico City	Ecuador	David & Frederick	El NiB>
LOSSES & EFFECTS	1985b	1987c	1979d	1982-1983e
TOTAL LOSSES	4337	1001	1057	3970
DIRECT LOSSES	3793	186	842	1311
Capital stock	3777	184	506	1060
Inventories	16	2	230	251
Production	0	0	106	0
INDIRECT LOSSES	544	815	215	2659
Production	154	704	185	1284
Services	390	111	30	1375
SECONDARY EFFECTS	4050	794	606	0
Public sector finances	1899	397	303	0
Increased expenditures	2025	55	264	0
Decrease in revenues	(126)f	342	39	0
EXTERNAL SECTOR	8579	781	464	621
Reduction of exports	1650	635	167	547
Increase in imports	9075	155	296	74
Disaster-related income	(2146)f	(9)f	0	0

Adapted from J. Roberto Jovel, “Los Efectos Economicos y Sociales de los Desastres Naturales en America Latina y el Caribe,” ECLAC 1989

^a All figures adjusted for inflation through 1987 to enhance comparability.

^b Secondary effects estimated for 1986 to 1987, and projected thereafter through 1990.

^c Includes damages caused by ensuing floods and mudflows which represent a very high percentage of the total.

^d Damages refer to the Dominican Republic only, even though other countries were affected as well.

^e Damages refer to Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, although other countries were affected as well.

^f Figures in parentheses refer to income gained.

Several conclusions can be drawn by analyzing information about the type and extent of social and economic losses caused by some of the recent major disasters. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has focussed on evaluations of the effects of several disasters in their region. Several important lessons can be drawn that relate not only to Latin America and the Caribbean, but to other regions as well.

By analyzing the phenomena that caused the natural disaster, ECLAC has concluded that:

Natural disasters of meteorological origins, such as floods, tropical storms, and droughts, generally affect a larger geographical area than geological disasters. This conclusion is substantiated by comparing the effects of the El Niurrent in 1982-1983 with recent earthquakes. The El Niurrent affected the entire Pacific Coast of South America (from Colombia to Chile) in those years. In comparison, recent earthquakes have affected urban centers and other smaller geographical areas.

Due to population density, the number of victims resulting from geological natural disasters, such as earthquakes, is greater than those resulting from meteorological phenomena. For example, the Guatemala earthquake of 1976 caused 22,000 deaths, while Hurricane Joan of 1988 caused only a few deaths in Nicaragua.

Losses of capital stock which result from earthquakes, affecting both the social and physical infrastructure, tend to be much greater than those resulting from floods. The estimated losses of capital stock from the 1985 earthquake in Mexico, for example, was placed at $3.8 billion (the highest figure considered reliable). By comparison, El Niaused losses of capital stock one third this amount in Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru in 1982-1983.

Unlike losses of capital stock, production and other indirect losses are generally much greater in the case of floods and droughts. For example, El Niaused indirect losses of $2.7 billion, whereas the Mexican earthquake caused indirect losses of only one fifth of that amount.

When a geological phenomenon causes floods or mud slides, production losses and other indirect losses are much greater than in cases of other geological disasters. The 1987 earthquake in Ecuador is a clear example of this conclusion where indirect losses were 82 percent of total losses.

The following effects are common to all types of natural disasters:

Where there is a considerable number of victims, the already limited qualified human resources in affected countries may be diminished. Such was the case in Guatemala after the 1986 earthquake which directly affected 19 per cent of the total population.

Often there is a significant decrease in the availability of housing and in the infrastructure related to health and education. This may exacerbate shortages which existed prior to the disaster. The San Salvador earthquake of 1986 left some 50,000 people without housing, or with seriously damaged housing, and 75 percent of the health related infrastructure was totally destroyed.

There is often a temporary decrease, lasting up to several months, in income among low wage earners with a concomitant increase in the already high rates of under-employment and unemployment.

Usually, there are temporary breakdowns of services providing water, sanitation, electricity, communication and transportation.

Finally, temporary shortages of food and raw materials for agricultural and industrial production are common effects of natural disasters.

ECLAC has estimated that in the 15 years between 1962 and 1976, Central American countries were affected by different types of natural disasters which caused 39,600 deaths as well as losses in capital stock, production and material goods amounting to some $8.5 billion (in 1987 dollars). The losses incurred were as follows:

Type of disaster	Deaths	Millions of dollars (in 1987 dollars)
Floods and wind storms	6054	1896
Drought, hail and cold storms	0	163
Eruptions and earthquakes	33,500	6453
Total	39,554	8512

If the above figures are combined with those of the case studies already mentioned as well as those of other disasters for which there is only partial information available, it can be concluded that Latin America and the Caribbean have sustained annual losses of over 6,000 lives and over $1.5 billion (in 1987 dollars) due to natural disasters.

Two case studies that illustrate these differential effects of disasters are the examples of Hurricane David and Frederick in the Dominican Republic and the Phenomenon of El Nif 1982-83 in South America.

Q. What types of disasters are most likely to affect your country?

A.________________________________________ __________________________________________ __________________________________________