(introduction...)

¹ This chapter has been drawn from the UNDP/UNDRO training module Vulnerability and Risk Assessment written by A.W. Coburn. R.J.S. Spence and A. Pomonis

This chapter considers the nature of risk; discusses the techniques by which natural hazards and the accompanying risk of future losses can be estimated; and it discusses the ways in which future risk estimates can be used to assist the choice of the optimum disaster mitigation strategy.

First, let us review the definitions of the key terms. Risk is the expected lives lost, persons injured, property damaged, and economic activity disrupted due to a particular hazard. Risk is the probability of a disaster occurring and resulting in a particular level of loss.

Risk assessment determines the scale of the estimated losses which can be anticipated in particular areas during a specified time period.