1 This chapter has been drawn from the
UNDP/UNDRO training module Vulnerability and Risk Assessment written by
A.W. Coburn. R.J.S. Spence and A. Pomonis
This chapter considers the nature of risk; discusses the
techniques by which natural hazards and the accompanying risk of future losses
can be estimated; and it discusses the ways in which future risk estimates can
be used to assist the choice of the optimum disaster mitigation strategy.
First, let us review the definitions of the key terms.
Risk is the expected lives lost, persons injured, property damaged, and
economic activity disrupted due to a particular hazard. Risk is the probability
of a disaster occurring and resulting in a particular level of loss.
Risk assessment determines the scale of the estimated
losses which can be anticipated in particular areas during a specified time