(introduction...)

The consequences of the natural disasters are varied. They may be considered in terms of human lives, material goods, economic activities, political impacts, social or psychological factors. They may also be direct or indirect, may have a more or less long duration, and may follow a relatively wide spatial scale. Figure 3 (¹) gives the different typologies and shows the extent of the problems caused by natural disasters which could not be avoided or whose effects it was not possible to attenuate. The countries in South East Asia and Bangladesh are regularly subject to such problems. However, the extent of these problems is not easily measurable because of insufficient data in this domain. This report does not aim at filling the gap but gives only some of the essential factors in terms of human assessment and the consequences from an economic and social development point of view.

¹In "Disaster Economics", Disaster Management Training Programme, UNDP/DHA, 1994.

1. Overall assessment of natural disasters (events, human implications)

The overall assessment of natural disasters in South East Asia and Bangladesh is but partial. The political instabilities in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos have hindered the collection of data. Moreover, all the events that have caused damage cannot be taken into account, particularly the minor events data are sometimes non-existent or, if present, are scattered, inaccurate or based on different criteria making an eventual comparison difficult. These events often have a high frequency and are endured with fate on both a local and national scale without drawing external attention. Though the events are only mentioned here, it is necessary to know that they exist because their cumulated effects (which should be evaluated) can have adverse consequences on the economies and societies involved. Such events may also be full of lessons to learn. They often herald major disasters in as much as they are known to occur in areas recently occupied or being under occupation process.

The CRED-UCL (²) database used for the present report does not take into account all the events that caused damages. However, from the threshold values taken and the events registered (³), it is possible to know the principal natural disasters that occurred between 1900 and 1996 in the area of study in terms of events, victims and populations affected. A comparison of data from the different countries is also possible.

²EM-DAT - Emergency Events Database.

³The events with at least 10 dead and/or 100 affected people are taken into consideration. The events that called for assistance on a national or international scale are also taken into consideration. The affected people are considered as people who asked for immediate assistance during an emergency situation.

A first statement refers to the very large place taken by the region under study in terms of natural disasters. Despite the fact that the countries in this region occupy only 1.7% of the total continental surface area and have 6.7% of the world population only, up to 12% (⁴ of the events and more than 20% of the deaths and affected people have been recorded in the region, using world wide scale, in the last 25 years.

⁴Excluding droughts.

Estimating disaster losses

Fig. 3 - Types of consequences of natural disasters.

		Losses
Consequences	Measure	Tangible	Intangible
Deaths	Number of people	Loss of economically active individuals	Social and psychological effects on remaining community
Injuries	Number and injury severity	Medical treatment needs, temporary loss of economic activity by productive individuals	Social and psychological pain and recovery
Physical damage	Inventory of damaged elements, by number and damage level	Replacement and repair cost	Cultural losses
Emergency operations	Volume of labor, workdays employed, equipment and resources	Mobilization costs, investment in preparedness capability	Stress and overwork in relief participants
Disruption to economy	Number of working days lost, volume of production lost	Value of lost production	Opportunities, competitiveness, reputation
Social disruption	Number of displaced persons, homeless	Temporary housing, relief, economic production	Psychological, social contacts, cohesion community morale
Environmental impact	Scale and severity	Clean-up costs, repair cost	Consequences of poorer environment, health risks, risk of future disaster

Source: "Disaster Economics", Disaster Management Training Programme, UNDP/DHA, 1994.

Over the century, 700 disasters have occurred in the region (figure 4) of which 158 (23%) occurred between 1900 and 1979, and 542 (77%) between 1972 and 1996. These data together with that of deaths and affected people appear to show that the natural disasters are becoming more frequent and are also causing heavier and heavier consequences. This is likely to be a general trend. However, one needs to be cautious about the reliability of the data. Most of the information is incomplete especially that concerning the affected people, and the data from certain particular countries (⁵).

⁵There is little data on Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand before 1960.

The Philippines are unquestionably the Islands with the greater amount of disasters (figures 4, 5 and 10). Approximately 50% of the events recorded affected the archipelago. On the other hand, Bangladesh gives the highest number of deaths and affected people (figures 4, 6, 7, 11 and 12).

During the period 1972-1996, two thirds of the affected people and almost 80% of the deaths were from Bangladesh. These figures are even much higher if the century scale is used. The most fatal events on the century were a cyclone in 1970 (300,000 deaths and 4 million affected people) and another one in 1991 (140,000 deaths and 15 million affected people). Comparing figures 6 and 7 with figures 8 and 9, it can be observed that without taking into account the two most fatal events, the ratio of deaths remains the same.

The five other countries all together register only 26% of the events that occurred between 1972 and 1996 (⁶), 5% of the deaths and 18.5% of the affected people. The raw data nevertheless give very high values for the target countries as a whole: approximately 13,000 deaths and above all about 80 million affected people. More than half of them are from Vietnam. For example the floods in the Central Provinces and the Mekong delta between July and December 1996 are supposed having caused more than 680 deaths or missing, in addition to 2 to 4 million disaster stricken people (⁷). The 1995 floods in Laos might have affected at least 300,000 people (JEGGLE, 1996).

⁶Most reliable period for comparisons of this kind, as mentioned above.
⁷After "Water Resources Journal", July 1997.

Fig. 4 - Frequency of events, deaths and affected people from 1900 to 1996.

1900-1996

	EVENTS	%	DEATHS	%	AFFECTED	%
PHILIPPINES	335	47.9	60,953	8.0	63,840,420	13.4
BANGLADESH	190	27.1	669,299	87.8	329,859,768	69.4
VIETNAM	77	11.0	19,910	2.6	43,457,995	9.1
THAILAND	41	5.9	3,493	0.5	23,382,807	4.9
MYANMAR	32	4.6	7,533	1.0	6,907,769	1.5
LAOS	20	2.9	431	0.0	5,679,772	1.2
CAMBODIA	5	0.7	665	0.0	1,950,000	0.4
REGION	700	100	762,284	100	475,078,531	100

1900-1971

	EVENTS	%	DEATHS	%	AFFECTED	%
PHILIPPINES	81	51.3	18,796	3.8	4,118,248	8.3
BANGLADESH	43	27.2	461,971	92.4	43,020,095	87.0
VIETNAM	10	6.3	11,136	2.2	1,029,541	2.1
THAILAND	4	2.5	1,275	0.3	200,000	0.4
MYANMAR	15	9.5	6,479	1.3	907,519	1.8
LAOS	4	2.5	316	0.0	179,000	0.4
CAMBODIA	1	0.6	0	0.0	0	0.0
REGION	158	100	499,973	100	49,454,403	100

1972-1996

	EVENTS	%	DEATHS	%	AFFECTED	%
PHILIPPINES	254	46.9	42,157	16.1	59,722,172	14.0
BANGLADESH	147	27.1	207,328	79.0	286,839,673	67.4
VIETNAM	67	12.4	8,774	3.3	42,428,454	10.0
THAILAND	37	6.8	2,218	0.8	23,182,807	5.4
MYANMAR	17	3.1	1,054	0.4	6,000,250	1.4
LAOS	16	3.0	115	0.0	5,500,772	1.3
CAMBODIA	4	0.7	665	0.3	1,950,000	0.5
REGION	542	100	262,311	100	425,624,128	100

Source: CRED database.

Fig. 5 - Number of disasters (1900-1996) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 6 - Number of deaths (1900-1996) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 7 - Number of people affected (1900-1996) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 8 - Number of deaths (1900-1996) without taking into account the two biggest events in Bangladesh (1970 and 1991 cyclones) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 9 - Number of people affected (1900-1996) without taking into account the two biggest events in Bangladesh (1970 and 1991 cyclones) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 10 - Number of disasters (1972-1996) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 11 - Number of deaths (1972-1996) (Source: CRED database)

Fig. 12 - Number of people affected (1972-1996) (Source: CRED database)

2. Economic consequences

Even more than the human assessment, the economic assessment of natural disasters in the 7 countries is difficult to establish because the information available is scattered, incomplete and generally associated with particular events. In addition to this, the estimations may vary considerably from one source to another. This obviously explains why syntheses are so scarce and incomplete.

Figure 13 shows a selection of 42 events of the 297 that occurred between 1988 and 1996. These are the only events whose damages have been assessed. Most of these evaluations only correspond to the costs of direct consequences. They nevertheless give a clue on the drain that the national economies have been subject to.

Beyond the direct or indirect losses, the economic consequences are of major importance given the repercussions they have on the economic development of the countries (GDP, public finances, foreign trade, price indices, ...). In the same line of thought, an approximate calculation of the percentage of GDP concerned gives eloquent figures. Sometimes the cost of only one disaster attains or goes beyond 10% of the annual GDP as in the case of Bangladesh in 1988 and in 1991. The cumulated costs of the different disasters affecting a country within the same year can be quite high. In the Philippines for example, the 9 disasters that occurred in 1992 have costed 6.5 billion dollars which is about 13% of the GDP of the year. This amount may have been exceeded several times as well in the Philippines as in other countries, especially in Bangladesh.

The damages therefore have a strong effect on the economic development of the seven countries and in particular key sectors. Figure 13 shows the sectors for which data are often available -agriculture, transport network, and housing. The data, though incomplete and heterogeneous, give an idea of the significance of the damages which often recur during the same year.

Because of the important role it plays considering the creation of national wealth and the population needs, the agricultural sector appears as a highly vulnerable one. From the 1996 World Bank estimates, the agricultural sector would still stand for 10.9% of the GNP of Thailand in 1995. The percentage would be higher for the other countries of the sample area: 30.9% of the 1995 GNP would be due to agricultural activities in Bangladesh, 44.6 and 54.3% respectively in Cambodia and Laos.

The agricultural sector plays an essential economic role as far as the demographic pressure is concerned. The FAO on a mission in Laos in 1996 noted that 16,000 hectares were devastated by floods in the Central provinces which resulted in a deficit of 154,000 tonnes of rice for the 1996-1997 period and therefore making emergency aid necessary (⁸). The fundamental role played by agriculture and the water associated with it, helps to increase its cultural recognition. Over the centuries, an implicit relationship between water, rice and prosperity has been observed in Thailand (RIGG, 1955) (⁹). This same relationship has been observed elsewhere. This helps understand the criticism of some Bengalis to the Food Action Plan which they think would "dry up" Bangladesh - an economically and culturally unacceptable situation (BIMAL KANTI, p. 126).

⁸After the government journal Lao News, April-June 1997.

⁹RIGG mentions the following thai sentence found on the Sukhothai temple dated 1292: "under the -reign of the King Ramkhamhaeng, the Sukhotai country is prosperous. In the waters there was fish and rice in the fields."

The economic consequences also concern the activities related to international trade, which have become indispensable because of national debt. Export agriculture, tourism, crafts and industrial activities are assumed to bring in foreign currency that is indispensable for the equilibrium of the balance of payments.

The agricultural products hold an even more significant place in exportations. From the World Bank estimates (1996a), coconut milk and sugar exports only would stand for 16% of the value of the Philippines exports in 1995.

Free zones can be affected by cyclones and floods, with greater probability as they are situated in the coastal plains and on the principal deltas. In Bangladesh, the Chittagong free zone was very seriously affected by the 1991 cyclone (NORMAND, 1991).

In Vietnam, the Can Gio sector near Ho-Chi-Minh-City is one of the growth poles created by the openings policy. This territory is quite often subject to floods, cyclones and storm surges.

In addition to orchards and shrimp breeding, farms for export, a port and industrial complexes have been planned by the Vietnamese government, hence the construction of a 11.5 kilometres-long coastal dike and the reinforcement of an existing device during a 3 to 5 year period at a cost of 2 million dollars (D.H.A., 1994).

Let us note that the development of these activities has called for the development of the transport system and contributed to getting the countries in the region into debt making them even more dependent on international trade and of other possible disturbances.

As a result, the transport network is particularly vulnerable. Figure 13 shows that in June 1993, 5000 kilometres of the road network and 1100 bridges might have been damaged by floods in Bangladesh. In the following month, a probable 14,500 road kilometres were damaged although the World Bank (1996b) estimates show that Bangladesh had, in the period 1989-1994, a road network of about 14,000 kilometres. The extent of damage as a result of a single event could be found in the other countries, however lower than in the above case. In Thailand, 10,700 road kilometres damaged during a rain storm that accompanied a cyclone in 1991 would, from World Bank estimates, stand out for 15% of the total length of the road network. However one should not forget the importance of water transport in all these countries, which could minimize the extent of damages (VAN DE WALLE, 1996).

Finally the housing sector is one of the elements most hit by natural hazards. A privileged relationship between the precarious settlements and the different sectors of the countries having a higher frequency and/or intensity of events has been clearly established in the bibliography. This is the case in the shanty towns of Dhaka in Bangladesh (NAZRUL ISLAM, 1996), Ho Chi Minh-City (BOLAY et alii, 1997) and Hanoi in Vietnam (DRAKAKIS-SPITH & DIXON, 1997). These authors have underlined the existence of a relationship between the Doi Moi (¹⁰) political development in Vietnam and the exaggeration of social differences, a relationship which was confirmed by DONG TO TUAN (1996). After a disaster, the portion of the GDP that is allocated to the construction sector increases. However both the foreign trade deficits resulting from importation and those from public finance increase. This has enabled to show the lasting effects of a disaster and consequently a growing tendency to foreign dependence. The response to natural disasters therefore tends to increase the vulnerability of countries to natural hazards, by an accumulative effect. Moreover a study carried out by the WORLD BANK has shown the indebtedness of the seven countries to fall between 42.5 (Thailand) and 127% (Vietnam) of the 1995 GNP even though this indebtedness is not a result of natural disasters only.

¹⁰ Policy aimed at opening the country to foreign trade.

Fig. 13 - Impacts of several disasters between 1988 and 1996.

Event	Human effects	Economic losses (million of US $)	% GDP (approx.)	Agriculture damages	Housing damages	Transport network damages	Main source
Bangladesh, 1988 Floods	2 380 deaths 45,000,000 affected	1300(2) 2137(1)	8-13%	Rice : 2 million tons		Roads: 13,000 km Bridges: 900	2
Philippines, 1988 Floods	157 deaths 2,000,000 affected	240	0.70%				1
Thailand, 1988 Floods	350 deaths 1,200,000 affected	170	0.30%	500,000 head of livestock killed			1
Philippines, 1989 Floods	58 deaths 140,000 affected	60	0.15%		13,000 homes damaged		1
Vietnam, 1989 Cyclone (may)	151 deaths 340,000 affected	21	0.30%	60,000 ha of crops destroyed	352,000 houses damaged		1
Philippines, 1990 Earthquake	1660 deaths 1,600,000 affected	1000	2.50%		100,000 houses damaged		1,3
Philippines, 1990 Cyclone	471 deaths 4,700,000 affected	380	0.90%		240,000 houses damaged		1
Bangladesh, 1991 Cyclone	140,000 deaths 15,000,000 affected	2000	10%	200,000 households lost all their livestock.; 118,000 acres of crops destroyed	790,000 houses destroyed	Bridges : 430	1,3
Bangladesh, 1991 Floods	100 deaths 20,000,000 affected	150	0.70%	100,000 ha of crops/rice lost		Roads: 800 km Bridges: 50	1
Cambodia, 1991 Floods	100 deaths 650,000 affected			243,000 ha of prime rice fields flooded; massive losses of livestock			1
Myanmar, 1991	23 deaths	500	2%	more than 250,000 acres	9 townships and		1
Floods	3,600,000 affected			of crops destroyed;	1480 villages flooded		1
Philippines, 1991 Cyclone	4884 deaths 600,000 affected	400	1.00%		30,000 houses destroyed		1,3
Philippines, 1991 Pinatubo eruption	900 deaths 650,000 affected	1000	2.50%	43,000 ha of crops damaged; 326,000 ha of forest	110,000 houses variously damaged	Very important damages	1,3,4
Thailand, 1991 Cyclone	38 deaths 1,900,000 affected			530,000 ha farmland damaged; 150,000 livestock killed	11,000 houses damaged	Roads: 10,700 km Bridges: 1330	1
Vietnam, 1991 Floods	21 deaths	40	0.50%	100,000 ha of rice flooded; 240,000 tons of crops damaged	54,000 houses collapsed	900 km of roads over a two months period	1
Laos, 1992 Cyclone	102 deaths			54,000 ha farmland; 300,000 tons crops; 4,000 livestock	54,000 houses affected		1
Myanmar, 1992 Floods	5 deaths	55	0.20%	900,000 acres of farmland damaged		Roads: 400 km Bridges: 270	1
Philippines, 1992 Cyclone	50 deaths 950,000 affected	75	0.15%		3 400 houses destroyed		1
Philippines, 1992 Drought	1,130,000 affected			462,000 ha farmland damaged			1
Vietnam, 1992 Floods	65 deaths	48	0.50%		180,000 houses damaged	Bridges: 220	1
Bangladesh, 1993 Floods (June)	200 deaths 3,200,000 affected			280,000 acres of crops damaged	103,000 houses fully or partially damaged	Roads: 5,000 km Bridges: 1 100	1
Bangladesh, 1993 Floods (July)	162 deaths 10,400,000 affected			960,000 acres of crops damaged; 30,000 livestock killed	700,000 houses damaged	Roads: 14500 km Bridges: 1 930	1
Laos, 1993 Storm	8 deaths	30	2.30%	15,000 tons crops			1
Philippines, 1993 Cyclone	333 deaths 1,000,000 affected	70	0.15%		160,000 houses destroyed or damaged		1
Philippines, 1993 Floods	333-deaths 3,000,000 affected	320	0.60%				1
Thailand, 1993 Floods	23 deaths 380,000 affected	1260	1.10%	112,000 ha farmland damaged: 403,000 livestock killed		4230 road sites Bridges: 480	1
Vietnam, 1993 Floods	143 deaths 1,300,000 affected	10	0.10%	20,000 ha of rice and vegetables submerged	280,000 houses damaged	Roads: 900 km	1
Bangladesh, 1994 Cyclone	167 deaths 500,000 affected	120	0.50%	24,000 acres of crops damaged; 10,000 livestock killed	12,000 houses destroyed	Bridges: 506	1
Myanmar, 1994 Cyclone	17 deaths	10			Important damages		1
Philippines, 1994 Cyclone	14 deaths 260,000 homeless	68	0.10%		45,000 houses destroyed or damaged		1
Thailand, 1994 Floods	60 deaths	240	0.20%	755,000 ha of farmland flooded or damaged: 600,000 heads of livestock perished	15,000 houses destroyed	Thousands of roads and bridges destroyed	1
Vietnam, 1994 Floods	310 deaths 1,200,000 affected	134	1%	340,000 ha of crops damaged	580,000 houses/ buildings destroyed	Roads: 6900 km Bridges: 2980	1
Bangladesh, 1995 Floods (June)	250 deaths 12,500,000 affected			6,000 acres fully destroyed	210,000 houses destroyed	Roads: 2500 km	1
Bangladesh, 1995 Floods (September)	530 deaths 7,500,000 affected			500,000 ha of rice land inundated; 10,000 cattle killed	200,000 houses swept away into rivers		1
Philippines, 1995 Cyclone	882 deaths 1,600,000 affected	244	0.40%		148,000 houses destroyed; 390,000 partially damaged		1
Thailand, 1995 Floods	231 deaths 4,200,000 affected	235	0.15%	1,000,000 of acres of farmland under water		Bridges: 1010	1
Bangladesh, 1996 Floods	65 deaths 5,500,000 affected	150	0.50%	500,000 acres of crops damaged; 17,000 livestock killed	170,000 houses destroyed	Roads: 900 km	1
Cambodia, 1996 Floods	1,300,000 affected	4		120,000 ha of rice fields ruined			1
Laos, 1996 Floods	30 deaths 420,000 affected			30% rice production destroyed			1
Thailand, 1996 Floods	91 deaths 5,000,000 affected	90	0.05%	1,000,000 of farm animals have been killed			1
Vietnam, 1996 Cyclone	585 deaths	362	2%		300,000 homes damaged		1
Vietnam, 1996 Floods	342 deaths 4,000,000 affected	620	3.50%	46,000 ha of paddy fields under water	760,000 homes submerged		1

Source:

1. CRED database
2. Asian Development Bank, 1991
3. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 1995
4. Rantucci, 1994