IX. RISK ANALYSIS AND PHYSICAL PLANNING

Disasters have major direct and indirect socio-economic effects, in addition to the physical destruction that may occur. This is even more significant in developing countries where the lag between economic development and demographic growth is already considerable.

As has been said above, disasters have both immediate and long-term implications and plans formulated for disaster-prone areas should cover both these contingencies. It should also be remembered that a disastrous occurrence may initiate a chain of severe hazards in addition to the direct impact damage.

Risk analysis and mapping should be carried out not only to meet the requirements of physical planning but also of sound economic and social development. Maps needed for such purposes should indicate risk implications of each type of natural phenomenon and attempt to identify and guide the formulation of appropriate action programmes, development controls, land-use zoning regulations and special building codes, etc. For the respective types of hazards these should ideally be at the micro-level. It is also necessary to provide a composite risk indicator for guiding policy decisions on development planning and macro-level land-use zoning. The approach to risk assessment and mapping should be aimed at meeting these criteria so as to provide useful guidance to generalists such as planners, administrators, entrepreneurs and the community at risk. The information to be provided for these objectives should include space defined information on magnitude, frequency, duration, areal extent and speed of onset.

The series of action programmes that would need such detailed risk assessment and description include:

1. Physical planning

(a) Long term

(i) Regional plans, master plans (macro-level) including settlement development plans.

(ii) Re-development and re-settlement plans.

(iii) Area development plans (micro-level).

(iv) Land-use and zoning (micro-level).

(v) Development control.

(vi) Special building codes including guidance on construction techniques.

(vii) Master plans and detailed plans for infrastructural facilities.

(viii) Plans for evacuation routes and development of safety shelter network and communication links.

(b) Short term

(i) Site selection for temporary emergency facilities (transit camps, relief centre network organization, supply routes, etc.).

(ii) Development of alternative relief/rescue routes and communication links.

2. Socio-economic planning

(i) Industrial and other capital intensive development projects.

(ii) Scheduling of human activities in terms of restricting/reducing such activities in defined crisis periods, modifying cropping patterns for avoidance of crisis period and introducing appropriate alternate non-vulnerable species, etc., in areas of risk.

3. Administration

Organization of administrative machinery for pre- and post disaster operations at governmental, non-governmental and community levels.