Session III. TYPHOON TRACKING EXERCISE

You are a fresh graduate of the Disaster Management Course. One morning while paying a courtesy call on your friend, the Governor of Region II (Eastern Luzon), you tell him how you have recently attended a DMC at the Regional Training Center. Then the governor said, “I need your help!” He leads you to a map on the wall and says,

“I am concerned about the impending risk of a major hazard in our region. Industrial estates and housing developments springing up everywhere. A typhoon is forecast to be moving towards eastern Luzon. We all know that it is impossible to give a 100% guarantee that there will be a disaster. Think of the present characteristic of Typhoon Goring with a maximum sustained winds of 185 KPH, moving with a speed of 20 KPH and gustiness to 245 KPH.

I want you to examine some of the problems that might arise if we were to have a major disaster considering the impending threat of the typhoon in the region so that we can proceed to the preparations of detailed contingency planning for such event.

Here is a map of the Philippines that show the present track of Typhoon Goring, I want you to do a quick forecast of the typhoon. My aim is when to evacuate everybody especially those in the coastal areas at risk before the landfall of the typhoon.

Questions

1. When will be the expected landfall of Typhoon Goring?

2. At what time will the forecast are be affected by the destructive winds of Typhoon Goring? (about 10 km from the center)

3. If ever the eye will pass over your locality, how long will be the “lull” (or the time at which they will experience clear skies and calm winds)?

4. What are the potential danger areas?

5. Approximately how many people are at risk?

6. What are the possible evacuation areas?