Science and Technology in the Transformation of the World (UNU, 1982, 496 p.): Session IV: The control of space and power: Toward a clearer definition of the role of science and technology in transformation: Osama A. El-Kholy: Appendix II.

Science and Technology in the Transformation of the World (UNU, 1982, 496 p.)

Session IV: The control of space and power

Toward a clearer definition of the role of science and technology in transformation

Osama A. El-Kholy

		Introduction
		I. A view of the problem from within
		II. The view from without
		III. Toward a clearer definition of the role of science and technology in transformation
		Appendix I.
		Appendix II.
		Appendix III.
		Notes

Appendix II.

Relation between mathematical and non-quantifiable experiences (for achieving consistency between model s e t requirements)

Relation between mathematical and non-quantifiable experiences (for achieving consistency between model S e T requirements)

A Selection of a group of consistent assumptions for one round of calculation (input).
B Choice of model output.
C Channels for consideration of elements (objectives or constraints) ignored in mathematical model-building, either by means of choice of suitable scenarios (C¹) or modification of model after discussion of results (C²).
D Flexibility of imposing constraints on model during solution.
E Determination of degree of aggregation of model.
F In choosing a set of consistent assumptions in a scenario, note also their consistency with a selected set of constraints, particularly limitation of resources.

Thus an outline of the proposed methodology would be:

a) For non-quantifiable objectives and constraints in the model, results - as well as other consequences not formulated within it will be discussed so as to modify scenarios (C¹) or model structure (C²).
b) For quantifiable objectives and constraints not formulated in model - for various reasons - an overall indicator outside the model will serve to indicate tendencies due to time changes in model (e.g., one for income distribution within a country, or between countries, another for collective security).
c) Methodology permits interaction between man and computer, allowing for personal judgement and a normative element in directing path of results with time.
d) Remaining variables neglected - due to length of forecasting period or other reasons - will still have a place in policy implications.
e) All these are primary features of simulation models.

As applied to S e T sector, we note

1) Rates of technological development - not embodied in value of capital - in production functions are clearly expressed in the model.
2) Cost of utilization of resources - particularly natural resources - in the long term is clearly expressed in objective functions and investment input in industry, agriculture, and education.
3) Social cost of environmental pollution - due to utilization of a natural resource or a prevailing technology - and for which an approximate estimate of negative effects can be made, will be included in a general indicator outside the model.
4) There will remain many other factors related to S e T - mainly sociological - which are difficult to quantify. These are left to personal judgement in discussing model results and lead to modification in scenarios or model formulation.