Science and Technology in the Transformation of the World (UNU, 1982, 496 p.) |

Session IV: The control of space and power |

Toward a clearer definition of the role of science and technology in transformation |

Osama A. El-Kholy |

__Relation between mathematical and non-quantifiable experiences
(for achieving consistency between model s e t requirements)__

Relation between mathematical and
non-quantifiable experiences (for achieving consistency between model S e T
requirements)

A Selection of a group of consistent assumptions for one round of calculation (input).B Choice of model output.

C Channels for consideration of elements (objectives or constraints) ignored in mathematical model-building, either by means of choice of suitable scenarios (C

^{1}) or modification of model after discussion of results (C^{2}).D Flexibility of imposing constraints on model during solution.

E Determination of degree of aggregation of model.

F In choosing a set of consistent assumptions in a scenario, note also their consistency with a selected set of constraints, particularly limitation of resources.

Thus an outline of the proposed methodology would be:

a) For non-quantifiable objectives and constraints in the model, results - as well as other consequences not formulated within it will be discussed so as to modify scenarios (C^{1}) or model structure (C^{2}).b) For quantifiable objectives and constraints not formulated in model - for various reasons - an overall indicator outside the model will serve to indicate tendencies due to time changes in model (e.g., one for income distribution within a country, or between countries, another for collective security).

c) Methodology permits interaction between man and computer, allowing for personal judgement and a normative element in directing path of results with time.

d) Remaining variables neglected - due to length of forecasting period or other reasons - will still have a place in policy implications.

e) All these are primary features of simulation models.

As applied to __S e T__ sector, we note

1) Rates of technological development - not embodied in value of capital - in production functions are clearly expressed in the model.2) Cost of utilization of resources - particularly natural resources - in the long term is clearly expressed in objective functions and investment input in industry, agriculture, and education.

3) Social cost of environmental pollution - due to utilization of a natural resource or a prevailing technology - and for which an approximate estimate of negative effects can be made, will be included in a general indicator outside the model.

4) There will remain many other factors related to S e T - mainly sociological - which are difficult to quantify. These are left to personal judgement in discussing model results and lead to modification in scenarios or model formulation.