|Science and Technology in the Transformation of the World (UNU, 1982, 496 p.)|
|Session IV: The control of space and power|
|Toward a clearer definition of the role of science and technology in transformation|
|Osama A. El-Kholy|
Relation between mathematical and non-quantifiable experiences (for achieving consistency between model s e t requirements)
Relation between mathematical and non-quantifiable experiences (for achieving consistency between model S e T requirements)
A Selection of a group of consistent assumptions for one round of calculation (input).
B Choice of model output.
C Channels for consideration of elements (objectives or constraints) ignored in mathematical model-building, either by means of choice of suitable scenarios (C1) or modification of model after discussion of results (C2).
D Flexibility of imposing constraints on model during solution.
E Determination of degree of aggregation of model.
F In choosing a set of consistent assumptions in a scenario, note also their consistency with a selected set of constraints, particularly limitation of resources.
Thus an outline of the proposed methodology would be:
a) For non-quantifiable objectives and constraints in the model, results - as well as other consequences not formulated within it will be discussed so as to modify scenarios (C1) or model structure (C2).
b) For quantifiable objectives and constraints not formulated in model - for various reasons - an overall indicator outside the model will serve to indicate tendencies due to time changes in model (e.g., one for income distribution within a country, or between countries, another for collective security).
c) Methodology permits interaction between man and computer, allowing for personal judgement and a normative element in directing path of results with time.
d) Remaining variables neglected - due to length of forecasting period or other reasons - will still have a place in policy implications.
e) All these are primary features of simulation models.
As applied to S e T sector, we note
1) Rates of technological development - not embodied in value of capital - in production functions are clearly expressed in the model.
2) Cost of utilization of resources - particularly natural resources - in the long term is clearly expressed in objective functions and investment input in industry, agriculture, and education.
3) Social cost of environmental pollution - due to utilization of a natural resource or a prevailing technology - and for which an approximate estimate of negative effects can be made, will be included in a general indicator outside the model.
4) There will remain many other factors related to S e T - mainly sociological - which are difficult to quantify. These are left to personal judgement in discussing model results and lead to modification in scenarios or model formulation.