Appendix III.

Analysis of the relative importance of factors relating to s e t (from questionnaire to scenario-writing)

The questionnaire is seen as a preparatory phase, the results of which would help in:

- brain-storming defining elements of experience of experience and human judgement for unquantifiable elements so as to ensure the normative aspect.

- defining technological options, their economics, and timings for application and points for modifications in the economic structure on the basis of technological options.

- linking with educational system development in the long run.

The questionnaire includes questions on:

- prerequisites and a method (a proposal is presented).

- a method of assessing S e T potential on the basis of available information, as well as its performance, economic and social impact, and future requirements.

- fields of joint Arab R e D action.

- assessment of future technology and its social and environmental impact.

- optimum conditions for "freedom" of scientific research and serving national needs.

- achieving exponential growth of S e T and necessary percentage expenditure of GNP, as well as a means of achieving such expenditure.

The scenario aims at ranking the following factors, distinguishing between those that are directly linked and those that have indirect linkages and Impact on the future of technology (tendencies, relative importance, time lags between change and effect, and so forth):

- Indicators of well-being and satisfaction of basic needs.

- Resources: human (population, education, health, employment), material (energy from various sources, soil, water, minerals, capital).

- Infrastructures and environment: material infrastructures, social considerations, distribution of resources, environmental damage, habitat, and so on.

- Production: agricultural, industrial and service sectors, distribution of product.