2.2.3 A poverty and employment monitoring action technical assistance programme

A major requirement to ensure appropriate policy making and adequate project implementation is the availability of data. It is thus necessary to explore alternative strategies that could reduce the cost of the data gathering exercise and simplify its processing. In so doing, it could be possible to guarantee the periodic availability of information on both poverty, employment, and African labour markets. The aim is to assess the changes in the poverty and employment status of particular population groups over time.

The cost effectiveness of investment on poverty reducing employment programmes depends on how the programmes are (1) targeted, (2) monitored, and (3) evaluated. On these three counts, information is indispensable. Information is useful when it is pertinent, when it is reliable, and when it is timely. Having 10 year old statistics on urban poverty is of no use to identify what are the priority populations to target in setting up employment programmes.

The poverty reducing effects of greater employment levels is not guaranteed under all circumstances. Programmes need not attain the neediest population segments, and the type of employment generated might not be of sufficient quality to rise the standards of living. It is thus critical to gather data both on employment and on poverty issues. Such information must show changes over time and space and, at the same time, satisfy the needs of a large number of policy makers and analysts wishing to understand the evolution of society and the impact of poverty reducing policies.

A long term information gathering strategy needs to be developed. It must identify an extremely limited number of issues for which data is required. For the purposes of this action programme, this encompasses exclusively data on employment and on poverty. It must then assess the periodicity of data collection. If poverty and employment levels change on a yearly basis there is no reason to gather data at shorter intervals. Depending on the frequency of change in the variables to measure cost effective data gathering and processing mechanisms should be developed. These could encompass a strategy of total population census every ten years, household surveys every two years and rapid assessment exercises every year, for example. While this programme of action could neither finance national census nor surveys, it could set the stage for the preparation of a coherent statistical programme to assess the poverty and employment statistics of sub-Saharan countries.⁸ The following steps could be undertaken to achieve such an aim:

· as a high priority activity, and using as much existing household survey data as possible, develop “poverty maps” to identify priority intervention areas;

· identify culturally specific proxy indicators of poverty that are simple and inexpensive to gather and process, to have a rough - but statistically significant-idea of employment levels, the quality of such employment and poverty levels and their changes. These proxies could be derived from the extensive surveys already carried out in many sub-Saharan countries, but should be tested before initiating any large scale job creating strategy. Their cost, reliability and effectiveness would need to be compared to alternative rapid assessment methods;

· use modern sampling techniques (possible through the development of clusters) to gather data on proxies, and to reduce the cost of the less frequent but periodic sample surveys;

· identify the periodicity of more full featured sample surveys to confirm the accuracy and the statistical validity of the proxy indicators and to have a more detailed picture of the situation of the population;

· assist public authorities to set up user groups to determine the nature of the data that needs to be collected and to assist in the dissemination of the information thus collected;

· programme regular evaluations of employment generating; and

· develop and strengthen local capacity to gather statistics, process and disseminate them promptly.

⁸ The PA-SMEC provides an example of data collection strategies already being implemented in the continent by the ILO. It is a joint initiative of the ILO (Social Finance Unit) and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) which regroups the countries of the Franc CFA monetary union. The PA-SMEC seeks to promote decentralized and mutual savings and credit systems, like village banks, savings associations, credit unions etc. In addition to advising on an incentive-based policy and regulatory framework, the PA-SMEC has also developed a data bank, which is the only source of complete and reliable information with quantitative data on microfinance on the seven countries concerned. The Central Bank of Central African States (BEAC) has requested the ILO to expand this system to Central Africa, as well.

These statistical exercises must be supplemented with community and participatory data. The former must identify institutions and the existing infrastructure in which programmes operate. The former signals the needs and perceptions of beneficiaries of direct interventions.

Although Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods sometimes seek to establish absolute values their prime strength is in assessing relative values. These are especially useful in monitoring situations where policy impacts are assessed. Changes in inequality can be indicated by wealth ranking exercises; changes in livelihood activities and the intensity with which they are pursued can be examined through seasonal calendars and daily schedules; information on market changes (including prices) can be obtained from key informants; and intra-household inequalities can be explored through group discussions with women and by comparing calendars and schedules of men and women. It is unlikely that participatory monitoring could accurately track the full primary and secondary effects of macroeconomic and sectoral reforms. However, aspects of the consequences, such as relative changes in incomes and expenditures, may be assessed using PRA. Participatory techniques are useful in adding depth of understanding to the quantitative data collected by large-scale household monitoring surveys. An example is the trend in African Famine Early Warning Systems to incorporate socio-economic data derived from small-scale community monitoring techniques within traditionally 'technical' systems of crop and rainfall forecasting. This combination of quantitative and qualitative monitoring systems allows analysts and policy-makers to assess the impact of environmental changes (such as drought) on households affected by this change, and makes for timelier and better targeted interventions.

Durable and high quality employment is only obtained when there is a dynamic and competitive enterprise sector. Data on establishments is therefore as important as that concerning the population. In parallel to the proposals made on the supply side, an information system to assess the evolution of enterprises both in the formal and informal economy is required. The following steps could be undertaken to achieve such an aim:

· identify a minimal set of variables to include in a rapid establishment assessment questionnaire;

· use modern sampling techniques (possible through the development of clusters) to gather data on establishments;

· identify the periodicity of more full featured sample surveys to confirm the accuracy and the statistical validity of the indicators included in the rapid appraisal exercise;

· assist public authorities to set up user groups to determine the nature of the data that needs to be collected and to assist in the dissemination of the information thus collected;

· programme regular evaluations of the effects of policies on enterprise development; and

· develop and strengthen local capacity to gather statistics, process and disseminate them promptly.

This programme component will be developed and implemented in close collaboration with the ILO Action Programme on Labour Market Indicators.