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close this bookThe Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.)
View the documentList of contributors
View the documentPreface
View the documentAcknowledgements
close this folderPart I Measuring responsibility
close this folder1 Introduction
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentThe greenhouse effect
View the documentWhat was decided at Rio?
View the documentProtocol negotiating difficulties
View the documentKey issues for climate change negotiations
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close this folder2 The basics of greenhouse gas indices
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View the documentApples and oranges
View the documentImplications
View the documentConclusion: indices do matter
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close this folder3 Assessing emissions: five approaches compared
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View the documentIntroduction
View the documentComprehensiveness compared
View the documentAccuracy by category
View the documentRegional and national emissions by source
View the documentConclusions
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View the documentAppendix A: Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions
View the documentAppendix B: Calculating cumulative and current emissions
close this folder4 Who pays (to solve the problem and how much)?
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentIndices of allocation: a brief review
View the documentAccountability
View the documentEquity and efficiency
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close this folderPart II Resource transfers
close this folder5 North-South carbon abatement costs
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentClimate change convention
View the documentMethod overview
View the documentImplications for the South
View the documentNotes and references
close this folder6 North-South transfer
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentObligation to pay indices
View the documentRedistribution of incremental cost
View the documentBenchmarks
View the documentUN scale of payments
View the documentFinancing mechanisms
View the documentConclusion
View the documentNotes and references
close this folder7 Insuring against sea level rise
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentInsurability of losses
View the documentOil pollution
View the documentNuclear damage
View the documentImplications
View the documentThe insurance scheme proposed by AOSIS
View the documentThe Climate Change Convention
View the documentNotes and references
View the documentAppendix: Scheme proposed by AOSIS for inclusion in the Climate Change Convention
close this folderPart III National greenhouse gas reduction cost curves
close this folder8 Integrating ecology and economy in India
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentIntroduction
View the documentEmissions inventory
View the documentEnergy efficiency and fuel substitution
View the documentEmissions and sequestration from forest biomass
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close this folder9 Carbon abatement potential in West Africa
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentIntroduction
View the documentLong-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios
View the documentOptions for rational energy use and carbon conservation
View the documentEconomic opportunities for implementation
View the documentPolicy issues for the region
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close this folder10 Abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil
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View the documentBrazil energy economy
View the documentEnergy subsector analyses
View the documentChanging land-use trends
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close this folder11 Thailand's demand side management initiative: a practical response to global warming
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentIntroduction
View the documentEnd-use energy efficiency policies
View the documentCosts and benefits of the DSM master plan
View the documentCO2 reductions from the DSM Plan
View the documentWhy should other developing countries adopt DSM?
View the documentThe role of the multilateral development banks
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close this folder12 Carbon abatement in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentEnergy-environment nexus
View the documentScenarios for the future
View the documentCountry results
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close this folder13 Greenhouse gas emission abatement in Australia
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentAbatement of energy sector emissions
View the documentEconomic impact of abatement strategies
View the documentNon-energy emission abatement
View the documentAustralia's international role
View the documentCarbon taxes, externalities and other policy instruments
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close this folderPart IV Conclusion
close this folder14 Constructing a global greenhouse regime
View the document(introduction...)
View the documentConditionality and additionality
View the documentTechnology transfer
View the documentMulti-pronged approach
View the documentImplementation procedures
View the documentRegional building blocks
View the documentNorth-'South' conflicts
View the documentConclusion
View the documentNotes and references
close this folderAppendix: The Climate change convention
View the documentIntroduction
View the documentBackground
View the documentClimate change convention
View the documentArticle 1. Definitions
View the documentArticle 2. Objective
View the documentArticle 3. Principles
View the documentArticle 4 Commitments
View the documentArticle 5. Research and systematic observation
View the documentArticle 6. Education, training and public awareness
View the documentArticle 7. Conference of the Parties
View the documentArticle 8. Secretariat
View the documentArticle 9. Subsidiary body for scientific and technological advice
View the documentArticle 10. Subsidiary Body for implementation
View the documentArticle 11. Financial mechanism
View the documentArticle 12. Communication of information related to implementation
View the documentArticle 13. Resolution of questions regarding implementation
View the documentArticle 14. Settlement of disputes
View the documentArticle 15. Amendments to the Convention
View the documentArticle 16. Adoption and amendment of annexes to the Convention
View the documentArticle 17. Protocols
View the documentArticle 18. Right to vote
View the documentArticle 19. Depositary
View the documentArticle 20. Signature
View the documentArticle 21. Interim arrangements
View the documentArticle 22. Ratification, acceptance, approval or accession
View the documentArticle 23. Entry into force
View the documentArticle 24. Reservations
View the documentArticle 25. Withdrawal
View the documentArticle 26. Authentic texts

Changing land-use trends

By far the largest source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission in Brazil is deforestation, principally in Amazonia. The carbon stock of the seasonal and rainforest vegetation in Amazonia is estimated to range from 140 to 200 TC/ha; that of pasture is 10 TC/ha; and of cropland, 5 TC/ha. The forest carbon stock may be adjusted as new information becomes available on subsurface biomass of the vegetation. Changing land use also reduces soil carbon content. In pasture soil, for example, the carbon content may be about 10 per cent of the approximately 100 TC/hectare of forest soil, or about 90 TC/ha. less than in forests. (Houghton et al 1991).

Thus, assuming a deforestation rate in Amazonia of 1.8 million hectares per year, gross CO2 emissions would be 250-360 MTC (though not all appears immediately in the atmosphere). To this figure should be added emissions from deforestation in other regions of Brazil. Unfortunately, we have no estimates for this source. Although substantially smaller, these are not insignificant.

Biological processes also continually accumulate carbon from the atmosphere, as is the case with regrowth of natural vegetation on deforested areas, abandoned land, or forest plantations. The rate of natural regrowth can vary by a factor of twenty in humid tropical areas depending on the local land-use situation (Nepstad et al 1990). The scale of this countervailing sequestration is poorly understood.

Despite these uncertainties, it is clear that Brazil's annual emissions from deforestation (250-360 MTC) dwarf those of fossil fuel use (60 MTC) as well as from biomass use for energy (about 11 MTC). This fact is consistent with the observation that fuelwood use is not a major factor in overall deforestation, though it may be significant in some regions (for example, charcoal from cerrado and mangroves). The primary direct causes of deforestation are clearing for pasture and cropland, with logging often opening up the occupation process.

Focusing on Amazonia, any substantial decrease in the rate of deforestation is likely to be associated with decreased economic growth. Macroeconomic modelling suggests that for every 1 per cent reduction in deforestation regional GDP would have to fall by roughly 1.7 per cent (Reds 1991). While pessimistic, the model suggests a first approximation of the cost of CO2 abatement by halting deforestation, roughly US$4/TC according to the model's author. This low cost (equivalent to a tax of $0.50/barrel of oil) is probably an upper limit, since the model assumes historical relationships. A strategy to change these relationships should be both cheaper and allow a less drastic trade-off between economic growth and deforestation. Such a strategy must go beyond police enforcement or reducing/eliminating legal and financial incentives to deforestation, though these are important (for example, Binswanger 1991). New or modified economic activities must be developed or strengthened both in forested and deforested areas (Sawyer 1990) based on land-use zoning. Settlement and economic activity, for example, should be stabilized, consolidated, and (in many areas) intensified in the largely deforested areas along the frontier and the 'pre-frontier'. While complex, restructuring Amazonia's economy is likely to be a large, 'no regress' source of CO2 abatement.

The relationship between land-use trends and energy policy has been little explored in Brazil. The most important such interaction is fuelwood for industry and charcoal. This nexus is the most important direct energy-related source of deforestation. A key issue is whether a decisive move to put these uses on a sustainable basis is justified or whether they should be phased out.

Another important land-use issue in relation to energy arises from hydroelectricity development in Amazonia. The relative priority, rate of development, and ultimate potential may all be influenced by a strategy to minimize deforestation. The infrastructure and migrations occasioned by hydro are the key concern. Some projects may provoke deforestation. Others help to decrease it as, for example, on the Tocantins river (Moreira et al 1990). This indirect effect on carbon emissions is likely to be larger than differences in direct electricity CO2 emissions resulting from alternative scenarios of hydropower/thermal generations (as discussed above).

Two subsidiary issues also connect land-use and energy policy issues. The unavailability of electrical power to isolated communities (most especially in Amazonia) constrains economic development. Poverty, in turn, fosters more carbon-emitting and intensive resource exploitation (Poole et al 1990). Relatedly, fuels such as diesel sold for use in Amazonia are subsidized (Reds 1991). The common denominator of CO2 emissions reinforces the need to consider energy, land use and regional development together.