The Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.): Part III National greenhouse gas reduction cost curves: 10 Abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil: Changing land-use trends

The Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.)

List of contributors

Preface

Acknowledgements

Part I Measuring responsibility

1 Introduction

(introduction...)

The greenhouse effect

What was decided at Rio?

Protocol negotiating difficulties

Key issues for climate change negotiations

References

2 The basics of greenhouse gas indices

(introduction...)

Apples and oranges

Implications

Conclusion: indices do matter

References

3 Assessing emissions: five approaches compared

(introduction...)

Introduction

Comprehensiveness compared

Accuracy by category

Regional and national emissions by source

Conclusions

References

Appendix A: Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions

Appendix B: Calculating cumulative and current emissions

4 Who pays (to solve the problem and how much)?

(introduction...)

Indices of allocation: a brief review

Accountability

Equity and efficiency

Conclusion

References

Part II Resource transfers

5 North-South carbon abatement costs

(introduction...)

Climate change convention

Method overview

Implications for the South

Notes and references

6 North-South transfer

(introduction...)

Obligation to pay indices

Redistribution of incremental cost

Benchmarks

UN scale of payments

Financing mechanisms

Conclusion

Notes and references

7 Insuring against sea level rise

(introduction...)

Insurability of losses

Oil pollution

Nuclear damage

Implications

The insurance scheme proposed by AOSIS

The Climate Change Convention

Notes and references

Appendix: Scheme proposed by AOSIS for inclusion in the Climate Change Convention

Part III National greenhouse gas reduction cost curves

8 Integrating ecology and economy in India

(introduction...)

Introduction

Emissions inventory

Energy efficiency and fuel substitution

Emissions and sequestration from forest biomass

Conclusions

References

9 Carbon abatement potential in West Africa

(introduction...)

Introduction

Long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios

Options for rational energy use and carbon conservation

Economic opportunities for implementation

Policy issues for the region

Conclusions

References

10 Abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil

(introduction...)

Brazil energy economy

Energy subsector analyses

Changing land-use trends

Conclusion

References

11 Thailand's demand side management initiative: a practical response to global warming

(introduction...)

Introduction

End-use energy efficiency policies

Costs and benefits of the DSM master plan

CO2 reductions from the DSM Plan

Why should other developing countries adopt DSM?

The role of the multilateral development banks

Conclusions

References

12 Carbon abatement in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States

(introduction...)

Energy-environment nexus

Scenarios for the future

Country results

Policy implications

Conclusion

References

13 Greenhouse gas emission abatement in Australia

(introduction...)

Abatement of energy sector emissions

Economic impact of abatement strategies

Non-energy emission abatement

Australia's international role

Carbon taxes, externalities and other policy instruments

References

Part IV Conclusion

14 Constructing a global greenhouse regime

(introduction...)

Conditionality and additionality

Technology transfer

Multi-pronged approach

Implementation procedures

Regional building blocks

North-'South' conflicts

Conclusion

Notes and references

Appendix: The Climate change convention

Introduction

Background

Climate change convention

Article 1. Definitions

Article 2. Objective

Article 3. Principles

Article 4 Commitments

Article 5. Research and systematic observation

Article 6. Education, training and public awareness

Article 7. Conference of the Parties

Article 8. Secretariat

Article 9. Subsidiary body for scientific and technological advice

Article 10. Subsidiary Body for implementation

Article 11. Financial mechanism

Article 12. Communication of information related to implementation

Article 13. Resolution of questions regarding implementation

Article 14. Settlement of disputes

Article 15. Amendments to the Convention

Article 16. Adoption and amendment of annexes to the Convention

Article 17. Protocols

Article 18. Right to vote

Article 19. Depositary

Article 20. Signature

Article 21. Interim arrangements

Article 22. Ratification, acceptance, approval or accession

Article 23. Entry into force

Article 24. Reservations

Article 25. Withdrawal

Article 26. Authentic texts

Changing land-use trends

By far the largest source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission in Brazil is deforestation, principally in Amazonia. The carbon stock of the seasonal and rainforest vegetation in Amazonia is estimated to range from 140 to 200 TC/ha; that of pasture is 10 TC/ha; and of cropland, 5 TC/ha. The forest carbon stock may be adjusted as new information becomes available on subsurface biomass of the vegetation. Changing land use also reduces soil carbon content. In pasture soil, for example, the carbon content may be about 10 per cent of the approximately 100 TC/hectare of forest soil, or about 90 TC/ha. less than in forests. (Houghton et al 1991).

Thus, assuming a deforestation rate in Amazonia of 1.8 million hectares per year, gross CO₂ emissions would be 250-360 MTC (though not all appears immediately in the atmosphere). To this figure should be added emissions from deforestation in other regions of Brazil. Unfortunately, we have no estimates for this source. Although substantially smaller, these are not insignificant.

Biological processes also continually accumulate carbon from the atmosphere, as is the case with regrowth of natural vegetation on deforested areas, abandoned land, or forest plantations. The rate of natural regrowth can vary by a factor of twenty in humid tropical areas depending on the local land-use situation (Nepstad et al 1990). The scale of this countervailing sequestration is poorly understood.

Despite these uncertainties, it is clear that Brazil's annual emissions from deforestation (250-360 MTC) dwarf those of fossil fuel use (60 MTC) as well as from biomass use for energy (about 11 MTC). This fact is consistent with the observation that fuelwood use is not a major factor in overall deforestation, though it may be significant in some regions (for example, charcoal from cerrado and mangroves). The primary direct causes of deforestation are clearing for pasture and cropland, with logging often opening up the occupation process.

Focusing on Amazonia, any substantial decrease in the rate of deforestation is likely to be associated with decreased economic growth. Macroeconomic modelling suggests that for every 1 per cent reduction in deforestation regional GDP would have to fall by roughly 1.7 per cent (Reds 1991). While pessimistic, the model suggests a first approximation of the cost of CO₂ abatement by halting deforestation, roughly US$4/TC according to the model's author. This low cost (equivalent to a tax of $0.50/barrel of oil) is probably an upper limit, since the model assumes historical relationships. A strategy to change these relationships should be both cheaper and allow a less drastic trade-off between economic growth and deforestation. Such a strategy must go beyond police enforcement or reducing/eliminating legal and financial incentives to deforestation, though these are important (for example, Binswanger 1991). New or modified economic activities must be developed or strengthened both in forested and deforested areas (Sawyer 1990) based on land-use zoning. Settlement and economic activity, for example, should be stabilized, consolidated, and (in many areas) intensified in the largely deforested areas along the frontier and the 'pre-frontier'. While complex, restructuring Amazonia's economy is likely to be a large, 'no regress' source of CO₂ abatement.

The relationship between land-use trends and energy policy has been little explored in Brazil. The most important such interaction is fuelwood for industry and charcoal. This nexus is the most important direct energy-related source of deforestation. A key issue is whether a decisive move to put these uses on a sustainable basis is justified or whether they should be phased out.

Another important land-use issue in relation to energy arises from hydroelectricity development in Amazonia. The relative priority, rate of development, and ultimate potential may all be influenced by a strategy to minimize deforestation. The infrastructure and migrations occasioned by hydro are the key concern. Some projects may provoke deforestation. Others help to decrease it as, for example, on the Tocantins river (Moreira et al 1990). This indirect effect on carbon emissions is likely to be larger than differences in direct electricity CO₂ emissions resulting from alternative scenarios of hydropower/thermal generations (as discussed above).

Two subsidiary issues also connect land-use and energy policy issues. The unavailability of electrical power to isolated communities (most especially in Amazonia) constrains economic development. Poverty, in turn, fosters more carbon-emitting and intensive resource exploitation (Poole et al 1990). Relatedly, fuels such as diesel sold for use in Amazonia are subsidized (Reds 1991). The common denominator of CO₂ emissions reinforces the need to consider energy, land use and regional development together.