The Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.): Part III National greenhouse gas reduction cost curves: 10 Abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil: Conclusion

The Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.)

List of contributors

Preface

Acknowledgements

Part I Measuring responsibility

1 Introduction

(introduction...)

The greenhouse effect

What was decided at Rio?

Protocol negotiating difficulties

Key issues for climate change negotiations

References

2 The basics of greenhouse gas indices

(introduction...)

Apples and oranges

Implications

Conclusion: indices do matter

References

3 Assessing emissions: five approaches compared

(introduction...)

Introduction

Comprehensiveness compared

Accuracy by category

Regional and national emissions by source

Conclusions

References

Appendix A: Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions

Appendix B: Calculating cumulative and current emissions

4 Who pays (to solve the problem and how much)?

(introduction...)

Indices of allocation: a brief review

Accountability

Equity and efficiency

Conclusion

References

Part II Resource transfers

5 North-South carbon abatement costs

(introduction...)

Climate change convention

Method overview

Implications for the South

Notes and references

6 North-South transfer

(introduction...)

Obligation to pay indices

Redistribution of incremental cost

Benchmarks

UN scale of payments

Financing mechanisms

Conclusion

Notes and references

7 Insuring against sea level rise

(introduction...)

Insurability of losses

Oil pollution

Nuclear damage

Implications

The insurance scheme proposed by AOSIS

The Climate Change Convention

Notes and references

Appendix: Scheme proposed by AOSIS for inclusion in the Climate Change Convention

Part III National greenhouse gas reduction cost curves

8 Integrating ecology and economy in India

(introduction...)

Introduction

Emissions inventory

Energy efficiency and fuel substitution

Emissions and sequestration from forest biomass

Conclusions

References

9 Carbon abatement potential in West Africa

(introduction...)

Introduction

Long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios

Options for rational energy use and carbon conservation

Economic opportunities for implementation

Policy issues for the region

Conclusions

References

10 Abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil

(introduction...)

Brazil energy economy

Energy subsector analyses

Changing land-use trends

Conclusion

References

11 Thailand's demand side management initiative: a practical response to global warming

(introduction...)

Introduction

End-use energy efficiency policies

Costs and benefits of the DSM master plan

CO2 reductions from the DSM Plan

Why should other developing countries adopt DSM?

The role of the multilateral development banks

Conclusions

References

12 Carbon abatement in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States

(introduction...)

Energy-environment nexus

Scenarios for the future

Country results

Policy implications

Conclusion

References

13 Greenhouse gas emission abatement in Australia

(introduction...)

Abatement of energy sector emissions

Economic impact of abatement strategies

Non-energy emission abatement

Australia's international role

Carbon taxes, externalities and other policy instruments

References

Part IV Conclusion

14 Constructing a global greenhouse regime

(introduction...)

Conditionality and additionality

Technology transfer

Multi-pronged approach

Implementation procedures

Regional building blocks

North-'South' conflicts

Conclusion

Notes and references

Appendix: The Climate change convention

Introduction

Background

Climate change convention

Article 1. Definitions

Article 2. Objective

Article 3. Principles

Article 4 Commitments

Article 5. Research and systematic observation

Article 6. Education, training and public awareness

Article 7. Conference of the Parties

Article 8. Secretariat

Article 9. Subsidiary body for scientific and technological advice

Article 10. Subsidiary Body for implementation

Article 11. Financial mechanism

Article 12. Communication of information related to implementation

Article 13. Resolution of questions regarding implementation

Article 14. Settlement of disputes

Article 15. Amendments to the Convention

Article 16. Adoption and amendment of annexes to the Convention

Article 17. Protocols

Article 18. Right to vote

Article 19. Depositary

Article 20. Signature

Article 21. Interim arrangements

Article 22. Ratification, acceptance, approval or accession

Article 23. Entry into force

Article 24. Reservations

Article 25. Withdrawal

Article 26. Authentic texts

Conclusion

The analysis of CO₂ evolution and abatement measures is still incipient in Brazil both in regard to energy and to land-use change. The creation of credible, systematic and internationally comparable 'abasement cost' curves for Brazil is still not possible. As a consequence there is as yet little basis on which to agree on specific CO₂ limitation targets. The problem is exacerbated by the wide range of uncertainty surrounding the prospects for economic growth. The work briefly described here is part of an effort to better understand the potential and economics of CO; abatement. In Figure 10.1, we summarize the tentative results of this study for the costs and abatement potential of measures to reduce fossil energy emissions. We identified about 13.7 MTC of technologically feasible and economically justified carbon abatement, relative to the SNE 'tendencies' scenario in the year 2000. This reduction potential amounts to about 16 per cent of the SNE reference projection for carbon emissions in that year. We did not allow for the more pervasive energy and carbon reducing effects of technological innovation in all end-using sectors; nor did we include the impact of shifts in the sectoral composition of the economy on our estimate of energy and carbon conservation. Moreover, as our bottom-up calculation is extended to other sectors, we expect to increase substantially the size of the carbon reduction potential above 13.7 MTC.

Figure 10.1 Cumulative annual carbon emissions avoided by 2000 for technology improvements in Brazil

Although the quantitative analysis is incomplete and preliminary, it permits some observations which are relevant for policy. It appears that substantial savings in CO₂ emissions can be achieved at 'negative cost' or very low cost (say, less than US$10/TC), both in energy and land-use change. These savings should be substantially cheaper than those of many measures being considered by the industrialized countries. However, the fact that these are 'no regress' sayings does not mean that they are easy to achieve. This fact is relevant for a possible policy of international resource transfers, which should be very attentive to 'no regrets' opportunities in developing countries.

In Brazil's energy sector, the major 'no regress' sayings involve increasing energy efficiency in all consuming sectors. As explained earlier, conditions and policies favouring greater energy efficiency are also likely to favour, and are associated with, higher medium term economic growth (low inflation, correct price signals, investment in modernizing processes and products, competition, etc). Energy efficiency itself should directly contribute to improved overall productivity and thus to economic growth.

With regard to land-use change, we argue that the trade-off between Amazonia's economic growth and reducing deforestation is not so acute as some suggest. However, a strategy is needed urgently to change the economic dynamics of Amazonia's frontier regions. The case of Amazonia also highlights the need for cost-benefit analysis to explicitly consider who pays the costs and who receives the benefits of policy changes aimed at conserving carbon.

The medium term potential for relatively low cost CO₂ abatement is probably much larger for land-use change than in the energy sector. This judgement does not mean that energy efficiency should be ignored, however. Many measures to reduce energy-related emissions are as cost effective, or even more so, than those to reduce emissions from land-use change. Moreover, energy is fast becoming relatively more important. Finally, as we have observed, energy policy can influence future land-use, especially in the Amazon region.

Using the technologies discussed in this chapter, the total amount of carbon abatement is approximately 13.5 million TC. In Figure 10.1, we plotted a total amount of 9.3 million TC, since we excluded the 4.2 million TC due to the use of alcohol at the existing output (as shown in Table 10.10) because we did not know the net cost associated with this technology. The opportunities identified in this chapter are not the complete picture. Other technologies exist, and with their full inclusion on the demand side of the Brazilian energy matrix, probably more CO₂ abatement than is forecasted in the official alternative scenario can be achieved.