The Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.): Part II Resource transfers: 6 North-South transfer: Benchmarks

The Global Greenhouse Regime. Who Pays? (UNU, 1993, 382 p.)

List of contributors

Preface

Acknowledgements

Part I Measuring responsibility

1 Introduction

(introduction...)

The greenhouse effect

What was decided at Rio?

Protocol negotiating difficulties

Key issues for climate change negotiations

References

2 The basics of greenhouse gas indices

(introduction...)

Apples and oranges

Implications

Conclusion: indices do matter

References

3 Assessing emissions: five approaches compared

(introduction...)

Introduction

Comprehensiveness compared

Accuracy by category

Regional and national emissions by source

Conclusions

References

Appendix A: Estimates of greenhouse gas emissions

Appendix B: Calculating cumulative and current emissions

4 Who pays (to solve the problem and how much)?

(introduction...)

Indices of allocation: a brief review

Accountability

Equity and efficiency

Conclusion

References

Part II Resource transfers

5 North-South carbon abatement costs

(introduction...)

Climate change convention

Method overview

Implications for the South

Notes and references

6 North-South transfer

(introduction...)

Obligation to pay indices

Redistribution of incremental cost

Benchmarks

UN scale of payments

Financing mechanisms

Conclusion

Notes and references

7 Insuring against sea level rise

(introduction...)

Insurability of losses

Oil pollution

Nuclear damage

Implications

The insurance scheme proposed by AOSIS

The Climate Change Convention

Notes and references

Appendix: Scheme proposed by AOSIS for inclusion in the Climate Change Convention

Part III National greenhouse gas reduction cost curves

8 Integrating ecology and economy in India

(introduction...)

Introduction

Emissions inventory

Energy efficiency and fuel substitution

Emissions and sequestration from forest biomass

Conclusions

References

9 Carbon abatement potential in West Africa

(introduction...)

Introduction

Long-term energy and carbon emissions scenarios

Options for rational energy use and carbon conservation

Economic opportunities for implementation

Policy issues for the region

Conclusions

References

10 Abatement of carbon dioxide emissions in Brazil

(introduction...)

Brazil energy economy

Energy subsector analyses

Changing land-use trends

Conclusion

References

11 Thailand's demand side management initiative: a practical response to global warming

(introduction...)

Introduction

End-use energy efficiency policies

Costs and benefits of the DSM master plan

CO2 reductions from the DSM Plan

Why should other developing countries adopt DSM?

The role of the multilateral development banks

Conclusions

References

12 Carbon abatement in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States

(introduction...)

Energy-environment nexus

Scenarios for the future

Country results

Policy implications

Conclusion

References

13 Greenhouse gas emission abatement in Australia

(introduction...)

Abatement of energy sector emissions

Economic impact of abatement strategies

Non-energy emission abatement

Australia's international role

Carbon taxes, externalities and other policy instruments

References

Part IV Conclusion

14 Constructing a global greenhouse regime

(introduction...)

Conditionality and additionality

Technology transfer

Multi-pronged approach

Implementation procedures

Regional building blocks

North-'South' conflicts

Conclusion

Notes and references

Appendix: The Climate change convention

Introduction

Background

Climate change convention

Article 1. Definitions

Article 2. Objective

Article 3. Principles

Article 4 Commitments

Article 5. Research and systematic observation

Article 6. Education, training and public awareness

Article 7. Conference of the Parties

Article 8. Secretariat

Article 9. Subsidiary body for scientific and technological advice

Article 10. Subsidiary Body for implementation

Article 11. Financial mechanism

Article 12. Communication of information related to implementation

Article 13. Resolution of questions regarding implementation

Article 14. Settlement of disputes

Article 15. Amendments to the Convention

Article 16. Adoption and amendment of annexes to the Convention

Article 17. Protocols

Article 18. Right to vote

Article 19. Depositary

Article 20. Signature

Article 21. Interim arrangements

Article 22. Ratification, acceptance, approval or accession

Article 23. Entry into force

Article 24. Reservations

Article 25. Withdrawal

Article 26. Authentic texts

Benchmarks

According to this approach, substantial transfers to the South may be required to fund the technological and economic costs not covered by its own obligation to pay. These fall within the range $29-34 billion per year for thirty years, depending on the underlying marginal cost assumptions. Thirty billion dollars per year is a reasonable mid-point estimate of the justified, minimal and additional financing needed by the South to achieve its required reduction targets. To this amount should be added a substantial sum to 'kickstart' the sustainable development process by training the scientists and technicians who will be needed to implement an abatement strategy in the South.

Thirty billion dollars or more per year is a lot of money. For example, current official development assistance (ODA) for all energy investment in the South currently amounts to about $10 billion per year. Total ODA ran at about $30 billion per year during the 1980s (reaching $46.9 billion in 1989 for the OECD). Total foreign direct investment to all developing countries was about $13 billion per year in the same period. Enabling the South to participate in a global climate change agreement would result in transfers on a scale that would create a new foundation for the political-economic interdependence of the North and the South, on a scale with current aid and foreign investment.

Conversely, world and national GDP growing at 3 per cent per year will increase by 240 per cent over the same period, rendering the annual transfer cost a declining portion of donor country GDP. The transfer to the South of about $30 billion per year pales into insignificance compared with agricultural production subsidies ($50 billion per year in the EC); military spending in the North or the South; or Third World debt (which resulted in a South-to-North net financial flow of $42.9 billion in 1989). There is little doubt that the North can afford to pay $30 billion per year even if it would be difficult to muster the political will needed to do so.